AI set to revolutionise weather forecasting?

[danm]

New AI model can provide high-accuracy forecasts from even low-resolution data

PHYS.ORG

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Being able to create accurate weather models for weather forecasting is essential for every aspect of the American economy, from aviation to shipping. To date, weather models have been primarily based ...

 

[danm]

Inside Google’s plans to revolutionise the weather forecast

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

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As extreme weather events increase in number, an AI programme developed in the UK promises to save countless lives

 

[LetItSnow]

What with it being noted how AI has set Google back on its emissions targets on the power to run all these machines, to the point of them being higher than they were in 2019, I can't help but feel this AI push will end up doing more harm than good... Especially ironic in the topic of weather and enviromentalism.

Edited July 15 by LetItSnow!

[Earthshine]

 LetItSnow! The costs of running an AI model in terms of energy and time are many orders of magnitude less than a traditional NWP model.  The cost of training is high, but it's not clear how often (or if at all) this needs retraining.  If these models really have captured the underlying physics (and it is appearing in an increasing number of papers it has) then retraining/fine-tuning will be infrequent.  The existing AI models haven't been retrained at all, and their forecasts produce use about 10,000 times less energy.

[LetItSnow]

 Earthshine Oh, well, good then. But AI in other areas has proven to be a problem. That's why I wondered.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 Earthshine I'm impressed with them, they seem to be verifying very well indeed.   

[Downburst]

 LetItSnow! Its possible that AI will increase efficiencies in production such that AI will cause a reduction in carbon output. That's what I am expecting. Obviously there is a ramp up to get the data centers operational, but the application of AI is in it's infancy.

[LetItSnow]

 Downburst From what I can see, the emissions generated to having to store AI is a problem but could be mitigated if ran solely off renewable energy. Doesn’t help there’s been a frenzy with AI generated images creating not just those problems but moral ones too. I think AI, like its creators, is imperfect and nuance needs to be had when talking about it. It’s up to us whether it ends up being a helpful tool or a terrible tool. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

 LetItSnow! I would say at the moment AIFS is doing very well and will probably take the place of the existing models..  

[knocker]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/corporate-news/2023/ai-to-take-weather-forecasting-by-storm

[danm]

https://theconversation.com/ai-powered-weather-and-climate-models-are-set-to-change-the-future-of-forecasting-235186

[danm]

Give me the forecast for my garden: hyper-accurate, hyper-local weather predictions are on the way

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

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AI tool could be able to show heat differences between one end of a street and the other

A research team led by the Met Office used data from previous heatwaves in London to develop a machine-learning tool that could predict temperatures on a 100-metre grid. The results were 225 times more detailed than its standard forecasts. The study found that machine-learning methods of forecasting urban heat improved prediction of air temperatures by up to 11 per cent compared with the original weather forecast data.

 

Edited August 13 by danm

[danm]

On the path to delivering next generation UK weather forecasts | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Reporting on progress of the Met Office and Alan Turing Institute AI for Numerical Weather Prediction project.  The UK's weather is notoriously changeable, prompting everything from casual...