Changing Attitudes: Climate Change

[SnowBear]

. Methuselah

In some circumstances a forest as a whole can be net contributors, it depends on the type of forest.

[WYorksWeather]

 Methuselah This is to do with recent changes in the Amazon. So much of the Amazon has burned in wildfires lately that it may no longer be a net carbon sink.

[sundog]

Plenty out there that think it's all funny.....

[Methuselah]

So what happened to the Grand Solar Minimum? Where did the new Little Ice Age go? 

 

[jonboy]

 Methuselah what has this to do with climate change.  This is about understanding how the sun works and what causes the waxing and waning of the solar cycle and whether it is highly active or not.

Until that is understood you can't predict what impact that may or may not have on earth's climate 

[Methuselah]

 jonboy

Because climate change does have a natural component, and, let's face it, the sun delivers more energy to Earth than anything else.

And even that is being clearly overridden by anthropogenic CO2, H20 and CH4!

Edited October 28, 2024 by Methuselah

[jonboy]

 Methuselah if we don't understand what influences the sun cycle how can we speculate about its impact on climate. The video you posted is a distraction at best and pretty meaningless given vert few thought we were into a grand minimum let alone a minor ice age.

[Methuselah]

 jonboy

On the contrary, it's the stuff you are posting that's obfuscatory: anthropogenic CO2 is the problem and the number of sunspots count for nothing.

[Ciarán]

Köppen-Geiger Explorer

KOPPEN.EARTH

- Interactive map for the climate classifications now and in the future. You can choose a SSP; most likely is 2-4.5 or 3-7, perhaps the latter if the UN's 3.1C prediction comes to fruition.

[Methuselah]

Hope for coldies? Not in my lifetime! 

 

[raz.org.rain]

 Methuselah depending on what theoretical reconstruction we make from this, even an AMOC collapse wouldn't guarantee cold.

[Methuselah]

We are getting there: 

 

[Methuselah]

It's 15 years since the Climategate nonsense: 

 

[Methuselah]

A good, balanced (from a scientific perspective) and relevant documentary here:

 

[WYorksWeather]

State of the climate: 2024 will be first year above 1.5C of global warming - Carbon Brief

WWW.CARBONBRIEF.ORG

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This year is now virtually certain to beat 2023 as the hottest year on record, Carbon Brief analysis shows.

1.5C is going to be exceeded in most datasets this year.

Early November starting at record levels.

[raz.org.rain]

Not sure if this is worth its own thread so I'll just post it here, but apparently there's an oscillating pattern appearing in the Arctic 

Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming

WWW.NATURE.COM

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Abrupt transitions in the climate system are discussed mostly in terms of mean state changes. Here, the authors use simulations to show that a decline in Arctic sea ice can...

 

[Methuselah]

And, as Trump surrounds himself with sycophantic science deniers: 

How Pakistan's melting glaciers destroy mountain villages

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Climate change is altering the landscape of Pakistan's mountain regions, and changing lives forever.

 

[CharlieBear9]

The TDS appears to be as strong as ever.

[Methuselah]

Some facts about heat pumps: 

 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 Methuselah Thansk for this as we are thinking of getting one so watching it now

[WYorksWeather]

Carbon Brief have put together a large database of climate attribution studies, which can be found here. The database is searchable by type of event and by region.

Mapped: How climate change affects extreme weather around the world - Carbon Brief

INTERACTIVE.CARBONBRIEF.ORG

 

[Sky Full]

 Methuselah   Very interesting film but it has been made by an obvious enthusiast with possibly a significant budget available.  I would have liked to know how much his installation cost him including the batteries and the solar panels because you have to take account of the upfront cost of any heating system when considering the economics of it spread over, say, 15 years.  The running cost of a heat pump may be competitive with the cost of oil or gas but spread the cost of installation (possibly £14-£15K) over 15 years and add that to the total bill and this makes it uneconomic for me.

Where new houses are designed and built to accommodate heat pumps then they are of course the best choice these days but retrofitting an old house which already has a relatively new heating system is not an attractive proposition unless substantial grants are available to offset the installation costs.   I live in an area far from mains gas so when we had to replace the old and very expensive lpg bottled gas boiler system here (10 years ago) we decided to install an oil fired boiler instead.   The cost of the boiler, new tank, and a few new radiators (not all) pushed our budget to the very limit and there was no grant available.  However, the cost of oil has risen over 10 years and I now have to be very careful with the central heating because filling the tank now costs over £700 a time.  

Although our current boiler would probably last another 20 or even 30 years if serviced properly I do wonder what will be the cost of heating oil in another 10 years time, and will it even be available in 20 years?    The thought of replacing this 10 year old boiler with a heat pump system fills me with dread because I know the cost would be well beyond my means given that many of the radiators would have to be replaced again and new plumbing installed, but someone will no doubt have to make that decision at some future point….. 

[Methuselah]

 Sky Full

I agree with all of that. Whilst a heat pump plus solar panels would be ideal for a newly built house, they'd be useless for an old Victorian semi. But that's why (as a country) we have to get insulating. 

Funnily enough, we were saying the very same thing in 1974, following the fuel crisis! 

[Sky Full]

 Methuselah   Yes I remember that!  Still have the old petrol coupons in the house somewhere….

[Methuselah]

I've committed the cardinal sin of posting the thoughts of a genuine climate scientist. Where's a half-baked economist when you need one?!