Predict the hottest day of 2024 (UK) Competition

[LetItSnow]

34.1C in Northolt on the 29th of August 

[CryoraptorA303]

 LetItSnow! This would be Northolt's first annual maximum since 2004. Interestingly, 2004, 2002 and 2001 are Northolt's only annual maxima on record. Quite the coincidence that Northolt got two consecutive annual maxes in its debut, got a near-hattrick and then buggered off to never be seen again.

I think I've already declared mine to be 37.9°C on August 1st at Kew Gardens.

[CryoraptorA303]

Has anyone here put in a September date? While I'm not going to bet on that as the potential for very hot weather in late July/August this time around is too great imo, I would think this year is one of the more likely ones to see a September annual max. If that happens then this will be the first two consecutive September annual maxima since 1890/1891. September 13th was one of my three possible annual maxima when I was deciding what to submit, in the end I decided on August 1st. I won't give away my methodology or reasoning

Edited May 9 by CryoraptorA303

[Bradley in Kent]

I might go 41.3c in Wick on 22nd September, you never know...

[Scuba steve]

2000 c in November if old Putin gets his way 

[CharlieBear9]

Saturday just gone will do for me.

[Summer8906]

I swear I'd entered something in here, but evidently not.

So I'll say 36.3C on July 21st. The peak of a three day heat spike, which provides the only temps above 30C during July.

Edited May 18 by Summer8906

[Addicks Fan 1981]

I reckon it'll be every 3-4 years where we have something showpiece like of heat and that's not bias that is factual.    Reckon this summer though will have things in common with summer 2020 with the hottest day of the year on 31st July with the same value temperature wise.   

Edited May 18 by Addicks Fan 1981

[cheese]

36.8C on the 10th of August at Cambridge

[raz.org.rain]

Needless to say that our annual maximum definitely won't be 25°c or under, not that it was ever remotely viable.

[CryoraptorA303]

 raz.org.rain I'd be surprised if it's much under 34°C to be honest. Even without a hot summer, the kind of temperatures we're seeing right now mean even a short spike should reach these sorts of temperatures. A hot summer will see nothing under 38°C this year, regardless of any wetness.

[Summer8906]

 raz.org.rain I'm not even sure that's ever happened post-Ice Age!

 Bradley in Kent What, this one?

 

Wick, Ohio - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

or

Wick, West Virginia - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

Possible either of those could reach 41C at some point during the summer, but even there, probably not in September.

Edited May 19 by Summer8906

[CryoraptorA303]

17 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I'm not even sure that's ever happened post-Ice Age!

It could've happened in the mid-500s, which hosted the most extreme episode of volcanism in written history, with several major eruptions and many smaller ones over a ~20 year period. It drastically reduced global temps over that time and led to massive famine and disease outbreaks in the temperate world, the most notable being the Justinian plague which may have had several causes. It's plausible an already very cool year in that set could have been nerfed to the point of not exceeding even 25°C all the way through. However even then this would've happened only once in a year that was going to be very cool anyway, something like 1879, so still not all that likely.

25 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Possible either of those could reach 41C at some point during the summer, but even there, probably not in September.

The September records of more southern Ohio are 41°C, so it's not entirely implausible that an unusually extreme heatwave could see 41°C in northern Ohio and WV. I doubt Wick, Ohio is going to get to 41°C even in August but the more inland surroundings could, and I'd be surprised if Wick, WV's current September record is much lower than 41°C.

[Summer8906]

23 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

The September records of more southern Ohio are 41°C, so it's not entirely implausible that an unusually extreme heatwave could see 41°C in northern Ohio and WV. I doubt Wick, Ohio is going to get to 41°C even in August but the more inland surroundings could, and I'd be surprised if Wick, WV's current September record is much lower than 41°C.

Interesting; I made my comment because that part of the USA is AFAIK known for humid, maritime heat from the Gulf of Mexico, plus the sun is getting lower in September in any case. I'd have expected 40C+ to be rare in any part of the eastern USA even in high summer due to southerlies having a maritime source which moderates the temps (but hugely increases the humidity).

I've spent time in northern Greece in September several years and the highest it ever got in Sep was around 32-33C, but more generally it was below 30.

Edited May 20 by Summer8906

[Pulpstar]

37.8C on the solstice. Which also happens to be my birthday
Finningley station 

Edited May 20 by Pulpstar

[CryoraptorA303]

 Pulpstar I can't find a Met Office station at Finningley. The nearest seems to be Gringley-on-the-Hill, which seeing as it reached 40.1°C in July 2022, it's not entirely implausible that it could catch an annual maximum at some point.

On an unrelated note, while looking I found that Edenbridge is apparently still active as a manual station. The last entries from Edenbridge on Starling's Roost are from 2020, so I presumed the station closed. Mickleham seems to still be going despite not reporting on SR for several years now. A couple of the automatic stations in the London area (Chertsey, Iver and Cippenham) have never reported on SR, for one reason or another. Unless one of them gets a daily maximum, this makes it nearly impossible to see their temperature records as I have no idea where else they might be reported.

 Summer8906 Oh yes, it's humid, but the air can be stupidly warm. I'm pretty sure uppers in the very high 20s have made it to Ohio more than once. The Sun is also as high as it is in southern Spain/northern Morocco there, so in September its still going to be quite high. As it's also a humid climate, there will be considerable seasonal lag and the hottest air will probably be arriving in August/September.

Even parts of upstate NY have reached 40°C on occasion. New York's record is 41°C (although one of those times was in the 1910s which was an age of really bizarre heat records in NA, so I treat any records from that time with suspicion), and the last time it reached 40°C was 2012 if I'm not mistaken. While not known for their heat here, in NA the chain of years 2010-2012 were very hot and locations like New York saw 40°C heatwaves in all three. Since then 2018 and 2022 were hot summers for the eastern US (2023 was extremely hot more in the south/southwest) but I don't think 40°C was quite reached that far north. Wick, WV probably sees the high-30s every two or three years and 40°C every decade or so. September records near the area seem to be around 39/40°C, so an extreme heatwave in September could quite easily push it to 41°C. In that part of the world it's quite normal for September records to not be much lower than all-time records and sometimes even higher than June records. In fact a few places probably would have recorded their all-time maxes in September were it not for the questionable 1910s records and insane 1930s droughtwaves.

[LetItSnow]

On 19/05/2024 at 12:53, CryoraptorA303 said:

It could've happened in the mid-500s, which hosted the most extreme episode of volcanism in written history, with several major eruptions and many smaller ones over a ~20 year period. It drastically reduced global temps over that time and led to massive famine and disease outbreaks in the temperate world, the most notable being the Justinian plague which may have had several causes.

If I had a genie to give me some wishes as ridiculous as it would be it would be to have synoptic charts going back to the beginning of time. I'd be absolutely fascinated to see what weather patterns were like in different stages of climate history.

[Summerlover2006]

 LetItSnow! honestly same I would love to see the stats for the summers of 1540 1757 ETC.

[SpiritOf2006]

 cheshire snow Chance would be a fine thing. 28th is my birthday, been mostly cool and wet for most of the last decade.

 

I'm going to throw in 36.3C on the 3rd August.

[SpiritOf2006]

 CryoraptorA303 Could be either surely. Chippenham is in Wiltshire, Cippenham is near Slough in Berkshire or Buckinghamshire (can't remember which of the top of my head).

[TheOgre]

We haven’t had the hottest day in August for years. Was it 2013 the last time? Maybe it’ll be in August this year.

[CryoraptorA303]

 SpiritOf2006 There is no weather station in Chippenham, only at Cippenham Waterworks.

[CryoraptorA303]

 TheOgre Indeed, it was 2013. This long spell without an August maximum is honestly just punishment for August stealing 2013's maximum from July. I'd say July has more than had its own back now though, having achieved two all-time records in that time, something previously only ever achieved by August, and also trolling August 2020 out of that year's maximum right on the 31st.

Edited June 6 by CryoraptorA303

[Summerlover2006]

 CryoraptorA303 yeah July is so self centred

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Whenever the hottest day of the year occurs, hopefully it will be at some point during peak summer (early July to mid August) instead of September.