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Comparing west Wales with the Midlands Monday 5th to Sunday 11th November



[b]Headline: Some rain at times with dry spells too; fairly cool. Wet by next weekend.[/b]

A cool, wet week gone, especially for west Wales, with well over 2 inches falling at Llanwnnen. There has even been a little sleet and wet snow in the showers, along with hail, thunder and lightning for some! A cool week too, on Thursday temperatures for many did not better 8c. This week will be somewhat drier, still some rain on some of the days but not all, and with some fairly decent dry interludes, these most likely for the Midlands. On the cool side again, although less so than last week. Ground frost may still feature on a few nights this week, probably too much breeze for any fog though. Turning wet for all by next weekend.

Heavy snow for parts of the West Country this morning with a couple of inches in parts of Somerset - it is possible that over the south-east Midland's where it is raining heavily could see this turn to sleet even wet snow before it clears this afternoon (already reports of snow falling in Northamptonshire). Heavy showers with hail in places for west Wales this afternoon, and a cool day everywhere, maxima ranging from just 6c over the wet east Midlands to 10c in Pembrokeshire. Further showery rain tonight with a little low over the south, probably too much in the way of cloud for frost tonight.

A cool northerly flow for Monday, sunny spells and a few showers, but many places staying dry. Maxima just 8 to 10c, so dry for any traditional Guy Fawkes night bonfires. Enough in the way of clear skies for a frost Monday night, although this may have cleared by Tuesday morning in west Wales, so you may not need the scraper here! A slight ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday so another mostly dry day, although quite a lot of cloud coming in with WNW breeze, and some rain may affect the Midlands for a time during the afternoon. Cool again Tuesday with 8 to 10c the highs, and feeling chilly in the breeze. Milder air so no frost on Tuesday night, perhaps some drizzle for west Wales.
[attachment=143593:PPVG89 cool few showers Mon.png][attachment=143594:PPVJ89 m dry Tue.png][attachment=143595:ecm500.072 m dry Tue after frost.png]

Low pressure closes in on Scotland on Wednesday with a cold front moving east over Wales and England, so rain at times for west Wales much of the day, this not reaching the Midlands until the evening, and then probably only light rain at worst. A little milder on Wednesday temperatures reaching the early November average of 11 or 12c. The cold front only moving slowly east on Wednesday night so still rain at times for the Midlands, but clearing over west Wales to a few showers, with just the chance of a ground frost here. Thursday a bright day, with sunny spells and a few showers, quite cool again maxima 9 or 10c. A small chance of the cold front waving back into the Midlands during Thursday to bring further spells of rain, but odds on a fairly dry day for most places. Clearing skies under a transient ridge gives widespread frost Thursday night, down to -2c in colder spots.
[attachment=143596:PPVL89 CF brings some rain milder Wed.png][attachment=143597:Rtavn844 CF Wed.png][attachment=143598:ecmt850.096 cool some showers Thu.png]

It could be a bright and frosty start on Friday, but then low pressure moving south of Iceland brings rain fronts east during Friday, although it could stay dry until late on across the Midlands. Feeling cool in an increasing south-west wind during Friday, temperatures no better than the early November average of 11c. Low pressure up against a blocking Russian high next weekend, with fronts becoming slow moving over the UK perhaps, and this could bring quite a lot of rain in places, and still on the cool side.
[attachment=143599:ecmt850.144 rain wind from W Fri.png][attachment=143600:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=143601:Rtavn1624 SM trough weekend v wet places.png]

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I feel this is a very good summary for this week . and looking at todays charts these fronts will struggle as mentioned during this weekend .an interesting time possibly after this week ,
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