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Weekly weather guide Monday 3rd to Sunday 9th December 2012 (west Wales and the Midlands)



[b]Headline: Rather cold, rain or showers at times; frosty at times, snow less probable.[/b]

A reprieve from the rain last week, only 4mm falling since Monday here. As the models predicted it turned cold from mid week, and on Thursday morning Llanwnnen was colder than anywhere else in the UK getting down to -7.5c and only managing 1.8c during the day - very cold for November. Church Lawford, Warwickshire, had a minimum of -5c on Saturday morning. Turning milder early this week briefly, then generally another pretty cold week ahead, with rain or showers at times. The hint of wintriness for brief interludes on Wednesday and again Friday, but it is felt that any snow will be largely restricted to high ground, i.e. no major snow event as yet.

After a frosty, and in places foggy start, the Midlands will have a dry, bright and cold Sunday, however cloud spreads over west Wales bringing rain eventually this afternoon. The rain then spreads to the Midlands this evening, so no frost tonight. After quite a wet night the rain has cleared most parts by dawn, then a bright and breezy day with showers in places. Due to the westerly winds and lack of heating over land now we are in Winter, it is west Wales, being adjacent to the relatively mild heat energy source of the Irish Sea, that will get most of the showers on Monday and Tuesday. For west Wales then a showery couple of days, some of these heavy with hail being quite a feature, but a drier, brighter picture for most of the Midlands, as not so many showers make it over. Milder, maxima between 6 and 8c for Monday and Tuesday, but not feeling so in the fresh wind. There could be a longer spell of rain coming over during Tuesday afternoon or evening.
[attachment=146747:PPVI89 r cold showery Tue.png]

The trough bringing the rain and showers early in the week clears through on Tuesday night with cold northerly winds behind it, so a possibility of showers turning to sleet or snow in places before Wednesday morning? There will in any event be a frost by Wednesday morning. A cold day on Wednesday, good sunny spells and only a few wintry showers about, mainly for NW Wales, so snow likely over Snowdonia. Only reaching 3 or 4c on Wednesday. A cold and frosty night to follow, down to -5c in places, although it may cloud over by dawn Thursday and start to lift out the frost. Further fronts from a low crossing Scotland move in from the NW during Thursday with less cold air over Wales and England again and rain at times. Maxima of 5 to 7c on Thursday, a raw, damp and chilly feeling kind of day.
[attachment=146749:PPVL89 northerly Wed.png][attachment=146750:ecmt850.072 cold return Wed.png][attachment=146751:PPVO89 brief warm sector Thu some rain.png]

The low moves SE into Europe on Friday and yet again we see cold north winds dragged down behind it over the UK. A frosty start to Friday, though not as cold as the highlands of Scotland where -18c is shown on a recent GFS model run over the snowfields for Friday morning! Another ridge should give a dry bright Friday, but cold with maxima only 2 to 4c. Were any showers to creep through on Friday in spite of the ridge, then these could well contain a wintry flavour, with snow for high ground. Probably another frost to follow. (Note: latest GFS run has the low much further SW and so could threaten snow to Wales and the Midlands - this is not considered the more likely outcome, but rather something to bear in mind for later in the week!)
[attachment=146754:met.120 Fri low rain to dry colder.png][attachment=146752:ecmt850.144 second coming Fri to Sat.png][attachment=146753:ukmintemp -18c Scotland Fri.png]

Not even going to try to predict next weekend, so varied are the signals from the models, other than it will not be mild! Mixed could sum it up though.
[attachment=146755:ecmt850.168 mixed weekend.png]


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Snowed in parts of the East Midlands last night, a covering in SE Warwickshire, one NW member reported 5cm at Hellidon, Northants.
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New guide tomorrow, just two days ago I was expecting it to be a very cold potentially snowy week, how that has changed!
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