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Weekly weather guide for West Wales and the Midlands (Monday 11th to Sunday 17th Feb 2013)



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[b]Rather cold with rain, and chiefly hill snow at times; milder, especially for SW Wales, from mid week[/b][/size][/font]

[font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A chilly, rather than cold week gone, with maximum temperatures mostly only a little below the February average of 8c here in Ceredigion, and only the slightest of frosts on a few of the nights, with too much peristent cloud cover acting as a warming blanket. It has though been quite a cold week for the Midlands, even with a little snow at times, but not amounting to much. Another 'iffy' if eventually slightly milder week ahead, after a cold start with some snow in places.[/size][/font]
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Low pressure has formed over Wales today, and is pulling colder air in from the east as it gradually sinks south. Dull, damp and chilly for the rest of Sunday with further rain and drizzle, quite heavy at times. As the colder air moves over later this evening, the rain turns to sleet and snow over much of the Midlands, East and North Wales. With temperatures largely just above freezing tonight, any snow will be wet and will most likely struggle to settle at low levels, but high ground above about 200m could see appreciable accumulations by morning. Place such as the Brecon Beacons and the Cotswolds seeing several inches by dawn, while for most of South and West Wales there is not much chance of snow even falling tonight, at least below about 200m. Monday is a cold, damp day, with mainly light rain or sleet on and off, and again some snow over high ground. Maxima only around 3 or 4c, but milder over Pembrokeshire, 6c here. A cold NE wind too. [/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
[attachment=160344:ecmt850.024 snow threat tonight esp Midlands.png][attachment=160343:PPVE89 Mon L S cold damp sleet.png][/size][/font]
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Still a little rain, sleet or snow in places through Monday night, but with clear intervals developing later. A weak ridge for Tuesday so a mostly dry, perhaps even bright day, after a frosty start in places, and cold again, maxima just 3 or 4c. A widespread frost likely to develop during Tuesday night, and quite a hard frost should skies clear completely. An Atlantic frontal system then moves into the chilly air sat over the UK through Wednesday. Rain arrives for West Wales during Wednesday morning, readily turning to snow above about 300m, and then spreads east to the Midlands in the afternoon, only rain or sleet likely for the Midlands. Rather cold on Wednesday highs of just 4c for the Midlands, but eventually up to 8c for SW Wales where a mild sector gets over later in the day. Low pressure is close to Scotland on Thursday, sunny intervals and only a few showers, and a milder day, highs between 6 and 8c. [/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
[attachment=160345:PPVJ89 Tue m dry cold week R.png][attachment=160346:PPVL89 tr rain hill snow Wed pm.png][attachment=160347:ecmt850.096 tr Wed rain hill snow.png][attachment=160349:metslp.96 rain hill snow Wed pm.png][attachment=160351:h850t850eu WS Wed night.png][/size][/font]
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Throughout this week the Scandinavian high is ever present, although not affecting us enough to ensure a true cold snap. It is still there by next weekend, meaning that any Atlantic fronts get no further than the North Sea really, but do at least introduce milder air at times. Still this stand off by the end of the week, and signs that the Scandinavian high may intensify next weekend. So, for Friday and the weekend, weak troughs bring probably only small amounts of rain at times, with ridging from the NE attempting to dry things out, but perhaps not quite succeeding. Always colder to the NE and milder to the SW on a UK wide scale next weekend, the Midlands then generally on the rather chilly side, but conversely it may turn quite mild into SW Wales at some stage this weekend, 10c a possibilty here but with damp, drizzly conditions. Probably too much cloud for much in the way of frost over next weekend.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
[attachment=160352:ecmt850.168 stand off weekend H NE week troughs UK.png][attachment=160354:h850t850eu stand off weekend.png][/size][/font]


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This snow prediction game is hard! Lowland accumulation Midlands Sunday, 8cm west of Coventry, and slight accumulations today parts of Midlands.
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Decisively mild weather for whole of UK from Thursday in fact, dry too. No Scandinavian high re-build...just yet!
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