dingdong
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Posts posted by dingdong
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2 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:
What about January 2013 and that infamous red warning issued for Southeast Wales? It didn't turn out as phenomenally as we expected but we still got upwards of 20 cm, at least up here.
I was working night and had to travel from Cwmbran to caerphilly. Snow started about 1am, I left work at 01:30 (much to the annoyance of my boss who wanted me to stay) and I only just got home. Absolutely hammered down
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6 minutes ago, Frozone said:
What's the current temps for South Wales? Anybody with a weather station?
6c in Mumbles @ 8pm.
6 minutes ago, Frozone said:What's the current temps for South Wales? Anybody with a weather station?
6c in Mumbles @ 8pm.
Just drove from Lisvane in Cardiff to caerphilly and back.
temp on the car was reading
Lisvane 5.0c
Top of Caerphilly Mountain +1.5c
Caeephilly +3.5c
back in Lisvane +4.5c
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Periods of rain, then snow then rain then snow in Caerphilly.
Cars are white, but nowt else
DD
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Agree andy, although I think Sunday night/Monday morning is the one for us
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0
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Well after resigning myself to a rain only event nae throws up this.
Surely not, it can't do. Can it?
Edit; has a bit if backing from the NMM
DD
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Much better placement of the low so far this morning. This is illustrated by nae. Looking at 00z 42 compared to 18z 48, then backed up by the 0z 48 http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Gfs has low further north still, but positioning is better than yesterday's. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=48&mode=0
Still impossible to call, but would imagine the warning yellow area come 11:30 will be further south.
Wrt the moaning of the warning yesterday, pleae remember to check the impact charts. The impact chart on Thursday was ticked as ' low chance of happening' but with a ' high impact' if it did. Don't just assume yellow warning =snow or something will happen. As a result of the warning we have made changes to our work pattern on Monday. Now if it does not snow nothing is lost and it is bau as a few things have been jigged about. If it does snow bad Sunday night, and there was no warning originally put in place we would not be able to operate viably as a profitable business Monday as it would be too late to make changes
DD
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Would normally agree mike, temps this evening widely around 0c with uppers if between -8c and -6c, however DP's of +1c to +3c will scupper chances of sleey/snow.
Still. Looking at the output Sunday through next Thursday I'm not going to complain
DD
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I'm amazed again at the lack of any warnings coming out via meto or BBC - there just seems to be a lack of anything - readying the public for what may hit tuesday onwards this coming week - it's soooooooo frustrating! - snow/cold/winds/very nasty conditions/but no real warnings - CRAZY
I'm going to hazard a guess, having just taken a look at the ECMWF Ens mean rainfall projections of mostly circa 1-2mm at most (given temperature profile, probably a signal for <2cm of snow) they do not current expect this to be a hazard.
I can almost guarantee that as we move closer to the event, the amount of convection taking place will finally start to show on modelling (which has ALWAYS underestimated it - this is the single biggest improvement that must be made to short term high resolution modelling at the very least!) and the Met Office will scramble to get warnings out as the snow starts falling.
Embedded troughs and disturbances thrive in a flow such as the one being shown, and I'd expect at least a small covering of snow in many Northern, Western and Eastern counties at the very least by Wednesday evening...and thats before taking in to account the potential for these extra disturbances developing in the flow
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Agreed Bobby but the way our weather is atm no stable air around i expect troughs to form
I agree, with the current set up it is likely embedded troughs running across the country bringing more organised precipitation north-west to south-east, though the heaviest of any falls still looks more likely the further North and West you head
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Hmmm, remember this?
http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/2004/archives-2004-1-28-0-0.png
Got about 10 cm of snow that day,
Now look at this
Interesting I would say
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Much can change but this looks like being an interesting 48 hrs or so.
For the north east maybe, that chart does not show any more snow over the bulk of the country as what is does at +0z
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Caerphilly castle at 6:30 am
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I probably should post this (but I'm going to anyway) it's email from net office sent to work.
From: Weatherall, Malcolm [mailto:malcolm.weatherall@metoffice.gov.uk]
Sent: 18 January 2013 11:08
To: Weatherall, Malcolm
Subject: Snow- latest situation
Morning All
Here’s a very quick update re the snow situation. It’s expected to continue to snow across Wales through the morning with intensities varying and the scope for heavy snow at times and further significant disruption in many areas. Some drifting is to be expected in the strong southeasterly winds with snow accretion on power lines etc possibly causing some problems too. There will be a tendency for the snow to turn to rain/sleet in parts of Pembrokeshire and some areas bordering the Bristol Channel however, mainly Swansea westwards.
During the course of the afternoon the snow is expected to become more patchy across much of the southern half of Wales although it may well remain persistent across parts of the Gwent region. However, across the northern half of Wales it’s likely to persist and continue to turn heavy at times and continue into the evening.
The current warnings continue to give good guidance re expected snow amounts.
Overnight, the snow will gradually become lighter and more patchy and mainly confined to eastern areas of Wales by the end of the night.
The forecast over the weekend currently indicates mainly dry conditions although some light snow may affect eastern areas at times. It’s also expected to remain cold with low daytime temperatures and sharp overnight frosts. Hence, today’s snow is not expected to thaw very much during the weekend.
The forecast for Monday indicates the potential for slightly less cold conditions but with showers of sleet/snow possible.
If you wish to contact me today please give me a call on my mobile.
Regards
Malcolm
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Just started again in Caerphilly
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ok posted too soon snowing again here
What is your location?
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oh well. no Sky for me. dish 9 foot up, caked in icy snow. a brush can't sweep it off, it's that hard. freeview it is then.
Use sky go, plug laptop/pc/tablet into tv and stream it.
If u got smart tv and iPhone use zappotv app to steam via wifi to tv
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What time diud it hit the valleys? I have to say i was expecting more than a couple of cms this morning
Not sure about valleys, but I was working in new morrisons Cwmbran, started raining at 2:15, turned to snow about 3:30
DD
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What a drive from Cwmbran to Caerphilly that was.
My advice to anyone wanting to drive? DONT
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DingDong, it looks quite steady snow, how much is falling from this?
Not exsessive amounts. It's quite light at the moment. Snow has turned rather wet in nature therefore is not sticking too great, but enough to turn the grass white, and patchy deposits on the roads/pavements.
Looking out of my window towards the slightly higher valleys look very white however
DD
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Snow getting heavier here in Llantrisant.
Great stuff. Gone rather light in Caerphilly,snow quite wet as well now so has stopped settling.
Still, this is only the appetiser so im just going to enjoy it(even if it is a bit more ish)
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Large band over wales right now , is this snow?
It is in Caerphilly , cardiff and surrounding valley areas.
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06z not so good for swansea/neath and far southern areas - more progressive and milder air caught up...
Don't agree, the low tilts better, and as it slides away southeast, not only does it drag colder air back west, it develops a secondary low in the channel bringing another high snow risk for Saturday
After that is brings another undercutting system in to start next week.
DD
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Ian F saying to ignore raw NAE output
Yes IF saying ignore it, and ECM ens mean showing the low further south west than the op (and more inline with gfs) are all good signs
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Ian F said confidence now inxreasing re disruptive snow in the west country friday. Surely that is good for us. I am surprised by this, as Tony and others have said, more of a southerly ahead of the front now and not as cold.
Quite, I notice that bbc Wales weather did not show graphics for Friday at 8am (when they did earlier) timing would coincide with latest fax charts. GFS has been quite bullish the last cpl runs with regards to keeping the front further west. The met must be taking note if this, carol just mentioned possible large snow amounts across mid and east wales, but did not sound confident with regards to how far through the front moves.
Much can change but this looks like being an interesting 48 hrs or so.
Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
http://www.traffic-wales.com/cctvdetail.aspx?t=cctv&r=CAM_A465_41_6A_8487&x=307931&y=208146&s=&format=xhtml&lang=en-GB
merthyr looking white