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theuselesseater

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    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by theuselesseater

    Even the ECM has a low out in the Atlantic at T240, but with the blocking where it is, it IMHO will probably slide over Southern Frab=nce Northern Iberia. This cold will take some shifting, and will take some intense mixing out

    All the time the North Sea is getting colder than it has in years.

    And we are still EARLY in winter, theoretical Mid winter 10-12 days away. Normal winter coldest weather still 18-23 days away

    To add, quickly...the GFS nearly always over devlops lows in the atlantic out past 144, it's akin to throwing its hands in the air and saying WTF....

    Suffice, to say...ECM remains top for trend verifcation so far.

    PS - That's not to say that at some point the GFS wont pick up a new signal first, however, that signal is NOT in the foreseeable future at the moment.

    Enjoy...

    TUE - J

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by theuselesseater

    I know many to the south of me will now be salivating at the white fairy dust falling from the sky, but up here in not so snow drenched Suffolk I've been looking at the latest Fax charts for 96 (Sat) and 120 (Sun)...

    96 Fax

    120 Fax

    You would, wouldn't ya...:lol:

    PS - Of course modifications will be made to these charts, but the general theme for the coming days looks nice indeed...

    TUE -J

    East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    http://news.bbc.co.u...node&state=vi:V

    Latest from Bbc I-Player

    Click Forecast Video and Play Button

    I think most will be pleased with that Forecast including London and Herts/Surrey but looks like my nagging fear of Coastal Essex, Coastal Suffolk, Eastern Kent and Norfolk looks likely to happen with little or no snow and now have to rely on Showers at the end of the week, the Front further North looks like it merges with the Snow in the West of our region and then fizzles out during Wednesday Night and early doors thursday.

    Paul S

    It is still a complex situation as to what happens into EA later tonight/tomorrow, expect upgrades later :yahoo:

    Having said that, Suffolk is not my first choice location right now, just need an excuse for a trip down south :yahoo:

    TUE - J

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I am beginning to highly suspect that NOAA has reverted to running the 06z output via an Amiga 64...the operational output of this particular run has been often somewhere between goofy and ridiculous.

    The 06z short/mid term evolution is suspect, at this point I'd say it gets a big fat NO...although it does bring a nice easterly along down the road...

    Would you say no...

    ECM/UKMO/GEM all still looking nice, with the UKMO looking particularly tasty still...

    http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?04-05

    http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?04-05

    http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?04-05

    We seem to be stuck in a Alice in wonderland type of situation....heads we win tails they lose, by that I mean that whatever the evolution we will remain cold or very cold.

    What more can you ask for in winter...

    PS: Interactions later this week are key, Expect a revision for the 12z & 18 GFS....;)

    PPS: GFS - Other models ARE available

    TUE...

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