Jamie R
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Posts posted by Jamie R
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1 minute ago, Interitus said:
The GFS 0z from last night goes for SSW by Feb 1st 0z - chart shows wind reversal of -2 m/s at that time. Makes the tweets above quite amusing.
I wont pretend to know how it interprets the data but wouldn't it show a reversal if the PV temporarily shifted well off the pole before shifting back closer to it again? I always thought a full reversal is literally a reversal other than the odd mini core here and there? Wouldn't it therefor get confused if the PV was away from the pole interpreting the data as a reversal even though its just a shift?
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44 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
Is that a good chart?
Im using a really naff tablet to view this but on here that looks like a displaced Strat PV towards scandinavia, although I expect its rather weak. I cant see much on here though!
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Charts don't look promising at all for the next two weeks.
This winter's beginning to look increasingly pear shaped.
Oh dear, I think you are missing the point! The charts are looking just how you would expect given the state of the strat, it wont be until about 2 weeks from now (possibly a little longer) when we should start to see the effects of the fairly decent warming that is forecast towards next week.
I am only a lurker in this thread but I had to say something then!
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just been watching britains wildest weather on ch4, it was more like a propaganda show for global warming and climate change, and the seas 4c warmer than normal? really , what tosh or did they mean degrees F
It started ok but it got more and more......"warm" as time went on! The seas were almost 4'c warmer than normal for a few weeks (mainly the English Channel) but in 2010 they were around 4'c colder than normal.
It annoyed me because they didn't say that they were briefly 4'c warmer and then slowly slipped closer to average (although 1-2'c above still for a time).
Like a lot of weather and climate related programs on tv now they neglect to show the "other side' and that things are quite well balanced out ie. if somewhere is warmer than average, another place is colder than average etc, and this is what peees me off
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I don't think I can handle not seeing snow again this year. I have never seen a winter with no snow falling up on the highest hills here.....did that make sense?
I think over the next few weeks the back side of some cold fronts may produce a bit of wintriness on the hills here, a bit IMBY-ish I know but its lonely on this lil island!-
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On the 26th/27th Feb 1996 a Low was sat just north of Scotland and we had a SW airflow over the UK with plenty of snow showers. Even down here on the IOW the showers were snow up on the hills.
The uppers were -4'c to -6'c in general. Ok not quite what you asked but it was a proper SW flow-
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Just checked out your site, nice work Jamie
Thanks matey! -
How is the Isle of Wight going to do for storms on Saturday?
It isn't looking too good for Saturday really. If anything kicks off here I would expect it to be overnight on Friday and maybe into the morning on Saturday. Any time between 6pm and 9am could possibly see something.........possibly!
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Decent NOGAPS. I wonder what the first chart will look like after its upgrade on the 13th?
Probably like this
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OK, for those who are saying its a downgrade, this chart was cold enough to bring snow to the isle of wight
and look at the uppers
I know its getting later in the season but under cloud cover and precipitation there wouldn't be much difference at the surface with cold dry continental air.
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We had about 5 minutes of sleet here before turning to just rain, how can the I.O.W have had snow & just brief sleet here?!?
The reason is because the wind in Portsmouth was coming straight off the sea (SSE) but on the IOW only the South, Southwest and right on beach on the East coast had an onshore wind, so away from those areas the wind had traveled over at least 5 miles of land and was therefor much colder, so places such as Ryde, Wootton, Brading, Cowes, even Newport saw snow but Niton, Ventnor (near sea level) Compton, Freshwater all saw only rain with a few blobs of sleet. Even Sandown only saw sleety bits whilst a mile up the road in Shanklin had snow.
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Had about an hour of snow falling here in Shanklin, it was even quite heavy for a while
(please forgive the video quality)There was a little more on the hillier parts of Ventnor.
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Just had my second shower of soft hail and snow with some pretty big flakes on the front and rear edges of the most recent shower
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Rain here on the IOW east coast with a temp of 5'c but it has now turned to snow on the west side of the island, and Brighstone down is getting a good covering once again!
It is also snowing just west of Newport too.
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I just had a little drive around and this is how the IOW currently stands.
Shanklin 3.4c with sleety rain
Sandown 4.1c with rain
Brading down 2.8c with sleety rain
Ashey down 2.1c with light sleet
Wroxall 3.6c with sleety rain, but the south side of wroxall 2.8c with sleet
Ventnor down 2.4c with sleet
Shanklin down 1.9c with sleety snow.
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If I can get there I will in the deep snow all day tomorrow it seems
, probably wont be allowed on either the Middle or the Military road to get there though, even if its only 2 inches deep they will be closed I bet.Haha that would be a classic case! I think the island has a good solid chance of something reasonable (away from the south and east coast).
I have plans to go up Chillerton down if things 'work out'.
The main issue will be quite warm ground temperatures in many locations on the island.
I made this crude map for a friend of mine. The small clustering of heavier snow marks where the downs are.
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Needs a huge change, looking doomed so far, Been saying it all day, Thats sunny Bournemouth for ya! We get our very own weather here lol Way too warm!
I think the temps will start to drop once the wind strengthens.
At the moment we have slow moving air drifting across the channel which means it has time to warm up, but later on in the night the wind will increase and drag in colder and colder air from the continent.
Im sure that even on the coast it will become cold enough for some snow at some point, but a few miles inland will help a lot!
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Light snow falling here (im in Calbourne on the IOW) with a temp of 1.8c.
Much the same in Brighstone although the snow isn't being picked up by the station as yet.
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Dissagree thats because there showing you what you want to see!most members i think would like to see ecm gfs the same!
This again!? Here are the stats http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/acz5.html
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Still rain here and 2.1'c.......well sleet actually! haha
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yeah been snowing lightly in cowes for over 20 minutes got a covering still goin strong
Nice! Keep us/me updated!!!
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has turned to snow on the isle of wight in cowes, got a dustin already
You got snow in cowes? My mate lives in cowes and he said there has just been a heavy hail shower over there (btw, i dont doubt what your saying!), and talking of hail showers, the hail that just fell here was insaaaane! we have about 1cm of hailfall in places!!!
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HAHAHAHA OMG!!! On IOW radio they have been giving reports on the "snowfall" which they say is settling on the downs, although i have just come back from the downs and it was hail, heavy hail! Also they are saying that people on the IOW should not venture out this evening, and people are being allowed to leave work early!!! OMG Its raining with occasional bits of sleet mixed in!
On top of that the bloke who runs the weather station in Wroxall weather station was doing a report on the radio telling them that we would be in for some heavy snow tonight !!! Rather than getting their facts wrong, they should actually read into the actual proper forecasts for the IOW and they would see that little or no snow is predicted for here overnight.
Also when iw as in the petrol station a couple of hours ago there were people panicking and buying loads of de-icer and various other provisions including blankets incase they get stuck in tonights "heavy snowfall"
I must seem like such an idiot on here moaning like this, but it just gets to me thats all.
Sorry everyone!
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So are we all prepared? What have we done to prepare?
Well, i have got my umbrella and rain coat ready, also got my wellies out so i dont get wet feet in the torrential rain!
Nah, im sure somethign white will fall at some point, just not so sure it will stick around!
Thanks matey!
, probably wont be allowed on either the Middle or the Military road to get there though, even if its only 2 inches deep they will be closed I bet.
Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I prefer the parallel version of things. I know it only shows temps on there but you can get a good idea of what is probably happening.