thepokergod
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Posts posted by thepokergod
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CWB (of Taiwan) are going for landfall slightly to the east of HK at the moment but JMA seem to have a similar forecast to JTWC. Get ready HK and Macao!
The eye of Chanchu is clearly visible on satellite now.
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Luckily Macau and HK are built very well to withstand these things. If I wasn't stuck in Scotland I'd be on the next flight to Hong Kong!
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Funny, the current forecast has TY Chanchu making landfall over Macau, which was the territory which contributed the name! This could potentialy be the strongest storm to affect the Pearl River Delta region in many years.
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Warning #5 is out for Tropical Storm Chanchu. JTWC forecast it to make landfall on the central eastern coast of the Phillipines in about 30 hours with winds to 75kts gusting to 90kts. Expected to be a strong tropical storm once entering South China Sea but what it does in that region is anyone's guess at the mo.
Current winds are 45kts gusting to 55kts. More info can be found here:
I also highly recommend this great typhoon website for the Phillipines - http://www.typhoon2000.ph/
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Tried to post a pic on the previous reply but it didn't work so removed it. 02W has now reached tropical depression strength and is forecast to move NW towards northern Phillipines and strengthen to Severe Tropical storm strength. Here's the latest from JTWC for the next 36 hrs:
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W WARNING NR 00101 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 8.6N 135.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.6N 135.2E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 8.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 9.1N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 10.1N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
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JTWC have issued a a tropical cyclone formation alert for the disturbance over Palau, off the SE coast of the Phillipines. NRL page already refering to it as 02W.
Will be keeping an eye on this.
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98w has dissipated now. This is the latest from JTWC
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 147.2E,APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS
NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
The wait goes on....
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JTWC have now downgraded likelihood of tropical cyclone formation for invest 98w. More info can be found here:
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Hello all.
98w invest in NW Pacfic looks a lot more healthy than this morning. JTWC has potential for cyclone development as fair...about time the NW Pacific got its act together!
P.S Thought i'd add this for a laugh, got a Japanese oral exam on Thursday and I have to prepare a 4 min speech on one of my interests. I've decided to do it on typhoons! COuld be interesting!
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Awsome radar image on the BOM website. Click on Gove and you can get a great image of the eye wall. Looks like Cape Wessel is about to get an absolute hammering in the next 12 hrs!
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Thanks PK for clearing that up. Bookmarked that site, cheers. I'm really looking forward to the start of the typhoon season (when the NW Pacific winds herself up) for the selfish reason I'm moving to the region in July!!
Monica is a real beast at the moment, like a true Ozzie lass!! :blush: (No offense meant! :blush: )
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The eye of Monica is showing up nicely now on Gove AP 256km radar. Here's the link:
This will start looking better over the next few hours!
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Cheers for thats Wolves. The SS scale is primarily for wind speed but it also takes into account the storm surge and flooding. Also it's possible one can deduce from central pressure the intesity on the SS scale. However as is the case now, this is not always accurate!!
Wikipedia has a good page here on this Wikipedia Saffir Simpson pageIt's an interesting quandary the different categories used by different forecasting agencies. In places such as the NW Pacific where there are so many different scales (eg created by JMA-Japan, CWB-Taiwan, PAGSA-Phillipines etc) I find the Saffir Simpson scale a good standard system to use, esp since it's the one I was taught at school!
. Plus Tropical Storm Risk, which I find a very useful website, covers cyclones all over the globe and helpfully uses the SS scale to categorise all active systems regardless of basin.What is the categorisation system for the NE Pacific? These are forecasted by JTWC which is an unofficial forecasting service as such (ie. unrecognised by the World Meteorological Org) if i'm not mistaken. Is it the Mexicans who issue official forecasts for the region? Do they have their own scale?
Thanksi
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Yeah Monica's a cat 4 on the Aussie scale which at the moment equates to a cat 3 on the Saffir Simpson scale used by the NHC and JTWC. However here centrall pressure is 933mb at the mo which should mean cat 4 status on Saffir Simpson scall, however winds are just shy by about 5 kts, sustained 110 knots at the moment according to http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Hoping the eye will become more defined during this present phase of intensification.
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Monica is a Cat 3 on the SS scale at the moment. Almost stalled in the Gulf of Carpenteria, moving at only 3 kts. Due to intensify slowly. An eye is just visible on the latest sat pic.
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The latest visible sat pic taken 2230z available at NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Tropical Cyclone Page
She's intensifying nicely over the Gulf of Carpenteria, up to a 80kt system now at 963mb.
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The Met office has Monica intensifying once again after she's crossed Cape York. They except her to become a strong cyclone again. In the meantime could we see the unexpected explosive intensification which has characterised the previous two strong cyclones, Larry and Glenda?
From the metoffice
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONICA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7S 149.3E
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
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12UTC 17.04.2006 12.7S 149.3E WEAK
00UTC 18.04.2006 14.4S 147.1E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.04.2006 13.7S 145.4E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 19.04.2006 13.4S 143.7E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.04.2006 13.5S 143.1E STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 20.04.2006 13.7S 142.1E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 20.04.2006 12.2S 140.4E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 21.04.2006 11.8S 140.3E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 21.04.2006 11.0S 139.8E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 22.04.2006 10.4S 139.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.04.2006 9.7S 138.7E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.04.2006 9.5S 138.0E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.04.2006 9.2S 137.6E MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
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JTWC now have a TCFA out for this system. Looks to be moving SW towards the cyclone prone NE Australian coast. One to keep an eye on!
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She's a tropical storm, winds are gusting up to 50kts. No name yet, but exepected to intensify to cat 1 then weaken. Not due to make landfall at the moment, however all these details are likely to change.
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Yeah, it's looking pretty impressive already. Coming to the tail end of the S Hemisphere season now. Waiting for the NW Pacific to kick start, been very quiet so far this year. I think the next 6 weeks will see activity really increase. NW Pacific typhoons are my favourite but it's a shame they get less media coverage!
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Yep, JTWC now has a TCFA out now for the 93S. That area of ocean has produced a couple of powerful cyclone over the last few weeks...could this be the next?
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Here's the latest TAF for Learmouth Airport. Things look like getting bumpy soon
YPLM 292214Z 300024 12020G30KT 9999 -RA FEW015 SCT030 BKN080
FM12 15035G50KT 3000 +RA BKN008 OVC050
TEMPO 0024 VRB30G55KT 1000 TSRA BKN010 FEW030CB
FM12 MOD/SEV TURB BLW 2000FT TILL 24
Gusts to 55kts and moderate to severe turbulence below 2000ft!
Across the globe!
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Posted
The latest CWB (Taiwan) radar image is impressive. Here's the link http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/index.htm