kold weather
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Blog Comments posted by kold weather
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Hi Cookie, sorry its taken this long to respond back, but yeah feel free to do that if you want mate!
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I've only just seen this but well done on those results nick!
Uni life sure is amazing, but it really flies by, I'm going to be in my last year next year, and thats a horrid thought, may have to do a masters just to not have to do full time work still -
Cookie, this link here probably gives the best basic idea:
[url="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MJO#Influence_on_tropical_cyclogenesis"]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MJO#Influence_on_tropical_cyclogenesis[/url]
If you can get a good grasp on this factor then you'll be able to get a good idea on when the peak periods of the season may be, for exmaple the uptick in storms in middle of August 2009 came along just as the MJO became favourable, then as it became unfavourable again in September we had a slow period.
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A season like 2005 is exceptionally rare, looking at the past records as far as we have seems like there is a rough return rate of about 50-75 years, so its more then likely we will get another season like that at some point, though may have to wait till the next 'warm cycle' to get it...
Still as long as we are in the warm cycle of the Atlantic busy, sometimes hyperactive seasons are more then probable...
I'll do a blog about 2005 though tomorrow and why it was so active, interestingly enough 2 factors were by far and away the most important...
Thanks for the question!
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Yeah though much depends on the state of the El nino, needless to say that will be talked about don't worry!
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Yeah, as much as I do also love winter I tend to find myself wanting different things by the last part of the winter, esp this one which has been as good as it has been!
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This is a very late reply but its simply because the system is a warm cored system, therefore there isn't going to be much in the way of ice which is pretty much what helps give a charge and ths the lightning. Most lightning in the system will occur in the outer bands though sometimes you will also see it occur in the eyewall of rapidly developing hurricanes, esp at the lower end of the scale as the convection punches higher up and thus colder cloud tops which in turn allows lightning to occur.
Its more complex then that but thats a basic outline...
First "proper" Week At Uni
in Nick's blog
A blog by Nick L in Archive
Posted