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Everything posted by Isolated Frost
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Certainly looking cold... When using uniform scales, to try and see how each compares, this is what comes out: (using 500mb GPH from -160mb to 160mb anomaly, 850mb temp from -4c to 4c anomaly) December Slightly cooler with rather insignificant anomalies, very much in line with the reduced OPI-Dec CET correlation, though stratospheric changes in November as pointed out by Chiono and many more could be integral to seeing which way it tips (seems like either average or thereabouts, to pretty cold). January Much more marked, again various other factors will probably temper or accentuate this, but the +ve GPH much stronger to the north-west, with Scandinavia in particular much colder. Showing a -NAO pattern more conductive to longer lasting cold. February Far away, we can dream though...
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Just read what the very useful OPI team response, and then the replies saying 'back to square one' and 'gutted'. As far as I can tell, the post simply confirmed a lot of what we thought, along with adding the IZE (which could also be useful for future), but the OPI-AO/CET correlation hasn't actually changed. Sub -1.5 OPIs have still provided pretty cold winters, and it's currently -2.43? Bon nuit.
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The changing daylight hours thread
Isolated Frost replied to Boydie's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Nothing like night walks. Get hammered? Astronomy? -
The changing daylight hours thread
Isolated Frost replied to Boydie's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Personally it doesn't really matter too much, the hour is negligible- but I always like walking home at 4pm on December days, add to the festivities. Mind you, it being dark at 9:30am would certainly be interesting. I can see the point of moving to CEST during Summer though, when it's light at 3am, and dark at 11. -
As the 00z today takes +168 to get to 00z 1st November, I'd say we've got 2-3 days of any possibility of a spread above 0.8-1.0 (i.e. values dipping below 2.0 or above 3.0), but I think we've got a reliable landing range which means the OPI is going to be the 2nd lowest in its 38 years of recording. And looking at OPI-DJF AO composites, OPI-DJF CET composites, that is, at the very least, a very good start if you're looking for cold this winter. Of course there are many more pieces to the puzzle, but we're at no disadvantage to have one of the lowest OPI values on record.
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November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts
Isolated Frost replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
It was gonna be 3.9c but his trainer told him not to for our good. -
According to the terminology used in explaining the OPI; the 0z coming up tomorrow morning will be the first run to factor in all of October (1-21 October actual, 22-31 forecast). I think from there, we can reach a more reliable and tight spread of solutions. If it's -2.13 at the end of the month, virtual pints on me.
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There's been 48 years of OPI recording, and in 8 of them, the OPI has been sub -1 (of course only one year, 2009, was sub -2) OPI (Winter CET anomaly) 2009: -3.15 (-2.1c) 1985: -1.9 (-1.6c) 1984: -1.8 (-1.8c) 1978: -1.8 (-2.9c) 1976: -1.75 (-1.2c) 2012: -1.65 (-0.7c) 1986: -1.3 (-1.0c) 1982: -1.1 (-0.2c) See, don't get too scared folks! Hell, even 1981-82, 1995-96 and 2010-11 are missing from here, night!
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Most pertinently, the OPI is largely based around Arctic pressure patterns (in October) and there is a distinct correlation between OPI (October patterns) and the Winter Arctic Oscillation. A blocked Arctic, if in the right places, in October, often leads to a more blocked Arctic come Winter itself.
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November 2014 -- Your CET Forecasts
Isolated Frost replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
8c. -
By that reckoning, it's currently on around -1.8; and is expected to slowly rise. For reference (thanks to BFTV), winter OPI's between -1 and -2 are 76/77, 78/79, 82/83, 84/85, 85/86, 86/87, 12/13; so it wouldn't be a bad point to be at one bit (of course it's one part of the jigsaw as Tamara, Chiono, SM etc allude to above).