Partholon
-
Posts
105 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Partholon
-
-
He may or may not have a mild bias, but mostly Ian's post are objective, as his post above shows.
yes, to be fair to him, he has been objective in his aalysis since he came back. whereas in the past he seem to delight in winding people up. interestingly what he suggests, would chime with Roger J Smiths idea of the altantic pushing back after a few days of cold, before the cold takes a firmer hold late on in the month.
-
About 3-4 days ago, in spite of things like AO and NAO, which are only taken from the models anyway, the MJO was no help as it had almost no sign of any distance from its origin=in my view no help no matter what phase it is shown or predicted to be in.
I posted at length 2 days ago maybe 3 about the anomaly charts having shown some signs of shifting from the major block type they had indicated for over 2 weeks. They had begun about Thursday, I think from memory, but you can check from my pdf the other day, to a more westerly based flow across the Atlantic into the UK. This they have persisted with over the last 3 days or so.
That said then I think most folk, professional and amateur who use tele-c' links were surprised at how quckly the cold spell is going to break down! That is IF it does break down as predicted by the weekend=15/16 December.
hope that helps explain some of it.
actually there was one person, whom i spoke about on the strat thread, who foresaw the influence of the block on our weather as being shortlived, due to strat conditions at the 50-70 hpa mark. omniously enough, he thinks the chances of blocking will decrease as the winter progresses
-
It looks as if roger j smith's forecast is going to plan so far. He indicated a milder period in the run up to Christmas, with any cold outbreak before then being shortlived, and that's exactly what looks like happening now
-
1
-
-
well according to this guy.....
-
2
-
-
Yes. It's heartbreaking that they're only showing up now. To think we waited to no avail all winter for signs of height rises over Greenland):
-
And now for the change to cooler weather from tomorrow onwards): Just when I was getting used to the warm days
-
Well if the Ecm and uk met office have it right, we could see some snow on high ground in April, possibly even some snow making it to lower levels as well. Of course there is plenty of time for downgrades before then
-
It's disappointing to see the ecm indicating higher pressure may move towards Greenland towards the end of March. Why couldn't this have happened in January or February):
-
I had a dusting of snow earlier on. Showers seem to be retreating to the coast now.
-
Yes, it is disappointing to see the pv firing up again after the background signals suggested the opposite.
Still, I'm hoping for a March like 1985, that would be a shock to the system for those who believe spring can't deliver decent cold outbreaks
-
I'll be happy just to see snow falling, anything else(snow accumulating) will be a bonus.
-
Yes I know he did but only a few days before this the ECM was showing the most exciting charts of the winter. This is why I said the forecasts can change very quickly.
Indeed. The ecm 32 dayer, which was considered very accurate with regard to the blocking events of the previous two years, was very misleading this year. I recall Matt Hugo referencing it in his tweets, because blocking to the northwest was depicted by it on several occasions.
Ian Brown rightly receives criticism for some of his posts on here, but in saying that he was right when he mentioned several weeks ago that the vortex split this winter might not be favourable for blocking over the UK and Ireland. He cautioned people not to get carried away at the time. So This winter has shown me it's best not to get carried away by t-240 stratosphere profile charts from now on. Also that a split vortex does not guarantee blocking will occur in the right area for us to benefit from, even if some of the models suggest so in late FI.
-
And that leads to the fact that there are other drivers and possibly 'external' forcings that override this fact. A response rathert than a leader?
BFTP
Perhaps a crucial difference this year, was the strength of the vortex prior to the warmings compared to previous years. An additional consideration might be that the ep flux didn't go poleward, which, if i recall correctly, the experts said was not a very good sign.
-
After the dire winter so far, i'll just be happy to see some transitory snow again. Hopefully some feature will show up in the flow so that other parts of the country, aside from the usual favourable locations, can get some snow.
-
We just have to hope the GFS and UKMO don't fall in line with the ECM output, if not then snow for many in the north and west looks good - close to polar low territory too.
Although the this year the recurring theme has been the Azores high wrecking things, so the ecm certainly can't be discounted.
-
I have a feeling that will happen aswell,wouldnt be surprised if some places had a white paddys day lol. Snow and cold in March never excites me too much but after the winter we have had so far i would be happy to see cold weather with a chance of snow in March.
I'd love if we got a March snow storm, if only to teach those who are glad this winter has been so mild a lesson. lol
-
Based on past experience of la nina winters, which have been dominated by the Azores high, I bet we'll get a cold outbreak in March.
Then we can all ponder about what might have been if it had occurred a month or two earlier!
-
I agree. Also, if we went somewhere where we were pretty much guarunteed snow each winter, there wouldn't be any need to chase it. We chase the cold and snowy weather subconsciously, knowing we get very different amounts each year, and ironically moan when we don't get it!
Definitely true from my perspective. If I was guaranteed synoptics like mid- December 2010 every winter there probably wouldn't be as much excitement in seeing snow fall for me.
-
Some say that many contributors would do well to live in a different part of the world,
and that they create Christmas cakes made out of snow- all we know is they're called the Sti-but I think many would be best served by having two separate homes- one in Scandinavia from Oct-Feb and another in southern Spain from Mar-Sep!The thing is snow at home is always better I feel. I appreciate it more.
-
Another miserable day here,dull and rather misty with some rain at times and of course mild . Max temp 9.9c
This winter is doing my head in.
Tell me about it! Any chance we can get the Earth to spin in the opposite direction for next winter? It might help preserve our sanity
-
Anhdy Cap?? who does he play for?
You forgot the r in his surname
-
GFS showing a good northerly in 10 days time.
Sadly, I've more faith in Andy C bagging a hat trick at the weekend than that GFS northerly coming off at day 10.
-
There has been model uncertainty for the last few weeks beyond day 3 and 4, but one certainty has been we've never tapped into the cold despite all the promise.
What a reality check this winter has been after December 2010 ): I hope the solar physicists are right about colder winters to come in the years ahead.
-
I think the fat lady is singing. A settled spell for a few days then back to cool zonality per the UK met office extended outlook looks most likely now.
Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Partholon
just to point out this is the guy i quoted a couple of weeks ago, who dismissed the chances of an easterly happening back in mid- December, due to the strat profile at 50hpa and 70hpa. he said because of this the weather would be zonal for the rest of December.
however, for the sake of balance,i should point out he was highly skeptical of a stratosphere warming occuring in January. all in all his views should not be dismissed out right