tomhow
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Posts posted by tomhow
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0.4C just east of southampton and finally STOPPED snowing. No sounds of thaw that we here can hear. Except for the bit around the Chimney!
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Walked home from work now. Surprising amount of slush still on the main roads and traffic very light. Thermometer says 0C give or take, but might have to dig the snow off it for a better reading. I reckon 3-4 inches here just east of Soton, but very hard to judge accums as always. Just cleared nearly 100mm off the observatory roof (roll off shed, not dome) which if 1mm rain = 10mm snow means around 75kg of weight and I don't trust my workmanship that much.
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Just east of Southampton, good 3 inches, the snow had slackened off to tiny grainy almost sleety stuff, but has now turned back to big flakes and coming down as hard as it was at 8.30 this morning due to a few bands of higher intensity coming up from the SW... not sure how long that's going to carry on for, but I wish it would bloody stop!
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Still feels quite warm. Thermometer said 0C at 8.30am and walking across the field it was a layer of snow over slushy bog, most odd.
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Slackening off a touch here, just east of Southampton. Nearly 3 inches on the colder surfaces.
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Where abouts are you Tom? Can't see as on mobile...
just east of Soton
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closer to 2C here and going down slowly. Sleet has all but stopped
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Sleet intensifying... odd flake if you squint a bit. Still warm, +3C..... The sea is keep the snow at bay
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Anyone else having problems with the met office site? I can't seem to view the amber warning (valid for my area) as it just shows the red warning, or the yellow warning?
The meto site has never been fast since their "upgrade" and now it is really suffering under the load - very slow to load.
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Just east of southampton and north of fareham.. holding a good 3-4C and very very light sleet. Anybody know where I put my gloves?
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It is fun to watch the meto website for my area on friday. This time last night I had the heavy snow icon at 1500, 1800, 2100, but now I only have one heavy snow at 1200.... however, I now have some light snow in the early hours of saturday. This flip-flopping about only serves to underline how inherently unpredictable these events are.
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Tescos, Horse Hair, Women, Hard hit businesses, BMWs and burgers.
Is this a not a regional weather discussion thread.
Please guys n gals, let's get back on topic and predict how much snow, ole Mullender gets up on top of his hill.
Of course, general chit-chat is allowed but most folk who have just popped in for a quick update will get bored of such topics as listed above.
On the other hand, I think people popping in for a quick update could well benefit from pondering the implications of a seriously disruptive event and making their own plans.
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Speaking from experience, I do believe the South Coast and I suspect coastal parts of the SW peninsula will be the first places to recover from any such spell.
Very accurate. As I constantly tell my relations, the reason I live on the south coast is that the winter temps are always a few degrees warmer and the summer a few degrees cooler... it's all to do with that big wet blue thing.
Interestingly, those of long experience will note that almost everybody who lives between b'mouth and brighton claims they have a special microclimate...
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I've already told my boss im working from home Friday. I simply cannot be bothered with the car if it snows.
Plus I will be more productive without people pestering me every 10 minutes.
Yup - I refuse to take the car out in the snow. My excuse is that the car is an elderly over-powered rear wheel drive BMW with tyres like beach balls and I can't even negotiate a carpark with 1 inch of snow. Plus I'm hopeless at driving in the snow.
Luckily I have my lifestyle arranged such that I can walk to work if I choose.... which I will be doing on friday regardless.
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Here in Botley, Hants, just east of southampton it is around 0C
I've tried to do everything I can to stop it snowing. I've got plenty of food in (both man and cat) and I've even got gas for the camping stove and the inverter at the ready. I've got about 50kg of coal as well.
Now don't get me wrong, I love a bit of snow - a few inches on a sunday morning and a walk across the fields is a delight, on the other hand I'm a director at a small business and these sort of events are commercially disastrous. If nobody makes it to the office I might as well keep the office warm by burning pound notes.
My line all day has been basically
- Potentially disruption on friday
- Please pay close attention to the met office website.
- Please make sure tonight that you work remotely. If you haven't remote access the office for 4 months, please check it tonight so I can send you home with the required hardware etc tomorrow i.e. Have a PLAN etc.
- That said, We're on the south coast. The sea keeps us warm. Plus we are at sea level. Whilst conditions inland could well be apocalyptic, it PROBABLY won't be as bad down here. BUT BE PREPARED
My bones (well known forecasting model(!) ) tells me there is FAR TOO much expectation about this event. Nothing pushes away snow like high expectations. I think a few people are going to get a royal pasting, but the majority will end up with a lot less snow than they are expecting.
Please don't forget that whilst a week of chaos is great fun it does no favors for unemployment.
- Potentially disruption on friday
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And......met office just changed iow from light snow to heavy snow fri pm wooooo surely this can't go the way of the pear now?!
Yup - they've just done the same to Botley, Hants for all of friday afternoon. Should make the rush hour a hoot - looking more like a good day to walk to work (luckily I can!)
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Very cold and clear in Southampton tonight - perfect for a spot of astrophotography
Currently -2C in the observatory.
Friday morning looking very interesting and very complicated! I don't think we'll have a clear picture until tomorrows 12z... I wonder if/when the meto will upgrade their yellow snow to orange snow!?
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Hmmm, yesterdays 12z, 18z and last nights 00z all moved the cold air on friday morning backwards and forwards by about 20 miles - no trend. The 6z this morning has moved the really cold uppers from around Dorset right back to Kent. Thickness has deteriorated as well.
I presume the 12z will come back west a bit.
Mind you , uppers and thickness aside, the 2m figures are bloody cold all along the south coast
I think tomorrows 12z is the clincher - by then the models will know how much the cold got disrupted by tonight's feature sliding south into france.
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We're only 96-120 out now so I'm game on for a ramp
I think it will become much clearer after tomorrow night - it depends how much that feature that slides under us into france in the early hours of wednesday pushes back the easterly.
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Indeed, ice could be a real issue. Still not sure about fri sat at the moment. Get the feeling the sea might modify the air to the wrong side but here hoping I am wrong. However I am very optimistic for the last week of the month and in to feb. north east attack which would be better with no marginal temps to worry about.
I'm also slightly skeptical about friday morning - whilst the cold uppers are there, the predicted thickness values are less favorable. Whilst snow is always outrageously hard to predict, I think should be somewhat more uncertainty than the present consensus. It's also quite a long way off for predicting big dumpings of snow. Time and again I've seen models predict a pasting several days in advance only to see the pattern collapse less then 12 hours out.
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Whilst I haven't heard anything to the contrary, I would strongly suggest that ICE WILL BE A PROBLEM come the morning guys n gals, so take extreme care.
Might even be a cover of snow on top of it for a few too.I'm guessing the ice is going to be strongly dependent on the cloud cover - if the cloud breaks then lots of ice - otherwise not sure - especially with a stiff breeze
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Just east of Southampton and about 6 miles in land and the rain is staying firmly as rain. Fast moving clump just run down from the NW and anywhere south of winch looks to be staying as rain. This sorta makes sense as according to the 12z GFS the 528dam line is only going to reach southampton at 18z i.e. now.
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The birds think we are in for a snowy spell, they have spent the last two days strip mining all the moss of the roof of the house - there are fantastic piles of it outside the front door!
Brought to you buy the NATURE forecasting model.
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+1.3C and fine snow. It is fine, but indisputably snow.
Might even be a cover of snow on top of it for a few too.
South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/03/13 13z---->
in Regional
Posted
I'm not a snow lover and happy to have missed the main dumping, but watching the animation on the radar is a work of nature's art at its finest. Half the weather briskly flowing south west cross most of the country bashing into that great hunk of red sitting in the channel which tries to rise and rotate but never quite manages it. Simply beautiful to watch
If the sky clears at any point in the next couple of days (As us astronomer types wish) then the temps are going to plummet!! Anything is better than the anti-cyclonic gloom we've had the last few weeks.