[South East England & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 13/02/14]

My fingers crossed - 12 noon flight from Gatwick to SUNNY Florida Saturday…ahhhhh.  Not happy with the expanded Orange blob. I hate the idea of driving through the weather in the am. 

 

 

Hopefully you will be fine.

 

We are due to fly from Heathrow in the morning to Istanbul.  Believe or not we are staying in the Noah's Ark Hotel!

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.]

the control run has the same starting data as the operational but runs at a lower resolution to T192. thereafter, the op runs at a lower resolution to the control but at more horizontal atmospheric layers. if the control and operational both resemble each other through the post T192 timescale, there can be a bit more confidence in the general pattern shown by the two runs.

Thanks for the explanation.

[Winter Model Output Discussion 01/02/2013 12z onwards]

Well i've now got access to the ECMWF 2m ensemble for europe as it rolls out, we're out to day 10 now, and NW Europe is running around 1-2c colder than the 0z mean (average 0-3c away from the far SW and Ireland, where its nearer 3-6c)

Now awaiting the pressure means to see where we stand, but all steps in the right direction so far this evening

SK

I've never posted in the model forum before but am an avid reader.

Are you able to do this for a series of runs over the last few days just to see what the variability is from run to run. Couldn't the next run be equally 1 - 2 c higher than the 12z?

Thanks

Stephen.