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sn0wman

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    We've been getting lots of graupel here today too. I think you can almost see the difference between graupel and snow showers on the radar - to me graupel showers have jaggy edges whereas snow showers look much more smooth. Graupel showers also tend to become smoother the further inland they get.

    Despite doing a meteorology degree, I must admit that I'm not completely sure what atmospheric conditions lead to graupel formation... However, something to note is that showers really should be pepping up during the next 24 hours as much colder air at 500 hPa floods in (see 2 pm today vs 2 pm tomorrow). The North Sea snow machine is already producing pretty beefy showers so somewhere is really going to get pasted. 

    image.thumb.png.f41d4f776251e2183f8a99e4a1786a29.png

    image.thumb.png.35f760edee24b3c9b309907e6b88472f.png

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, Sunny Leith said:

    Forth Estuary is gagging for it but flurries apart, being spurned by blobs and streamers to the north in Fife, and to Berwickshire in the south. Something going on in the 3-D dynamics this time that I don't understand. I normally give family and friends 3 or 4 days notice of these events when I'm convinced they're going to happen (anything to make me look clever about the weather LOL), but didn't this time - probably based on the relatively non-standard winter we've had . Something not quite right in the setup for us and not convinced its going to resolve significantly. Anyway, just TORPing in the absence of anything much happening here 

    To be honest I think the snow has followed the forecast quite well so far. If anything there's been a few more showers than I expected by this stage in Edinburgh. The main event should be tonight into tomorrow while the convergence line moves south! We hope...

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    06z EURO4 run gives a little pocket of 70cm+ snow around Falkirk...  And 15cm+ widely through the Central Belt. One comment I have is that the showers so far appear to be more widespread and less oriented in convergence lines than modelled. Will be interesting to see if this holds through tomorrow. 

    euro4_uk1-45-54-0.png

    • Like 10

    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, LeithRayOfSunshine said:

    Can't say with certainty but think we're past peak snaw here for most of Edinburgh, well Leith anyway. Fewer blobs and fewer hits, and the ones we do get are more fleeting and lighter. Subtle change in flow maybe (although hard to tell from radar replay) and a lot more high-cloud today, wonder if that's limiting convection a bit. Aware that uppers are moderating a bit too. That said, looks like lots of folk are still in the firing line for mair heavy snaw, good luck ! :good:

    Hmm not sure if it's over just yet! This stuff should affect us in Edinburgh:

    image.thumb.png.7af30296f883281b1d69e597c6739e48.png

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    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    56 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

    Forgive me if I'm being daft.... 

    That's chart is valid for Friday...? 

     

    The red is right over Edinburgh? 

    It's an accumulated precipitation chart for what falls between now and midnight on Friday.

    The red looks to be over Penicuik to me, certainly not the city centre area anyway. 

    Saying that, the models don't seem to be dealing particularly well with the sheer number of showers actually forming...

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    Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion - 16/01/2018 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Ruzzi said:

    That is aimed directly at my house, genuinely will be unbelievable if that transpires. That would likely be enough to make it th best ever snow event I've seen here in terms of depths and drifts, especially since the wind gusts are forecast to be stronger tomorrow between 40mph and 50mph 

    Can't even imagine... Wouldn't put too much stock in it though - pretty sure today's events weren't actually modelled that well by any mesoscale runs. Still the potential for anywhere in Central/Eastern Scotland to get pasted!

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