thetonynator
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Posts posted by thetonynator
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11.0 please.
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I'd imagine we will see some record breaking months possibly from August/September onwards, maybe a little later, the way tings are looking at the moment!
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9.5 please.
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I suppose we are talking about the difference between the max ice growth and the fiddly bit at the end of the winter when we have ice breakup and float off with thin ice growing in between and melting pretty soon after. The 'numbers' are sound but the sentiment is a tad desperate in the face of maxed out pack entering decline?
I don't see why you want to bring sentiment into it, the figures are objective, you don't need to bring sentiment into it at all. Area continued to grow while you tried to say it was ice breaking up and spreading out.
Another new area max yesterday for the record, 13.487 million.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
Also interesting to note that it's only the second time since 2007 that the anomaly hasn't had its traditional 'near normal' period in late winter, although obviously a slow start to the melt season bring the extent and area temporarily a bit closer to normal.
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You also said last week when there was a big extent jump that is was just the break up of ice, yet area took a massive leap also.Well I'm thinking we just about 'peaked' yesterday and the float off is now placing ice into grids that do not register as ice. The only way now is down! Maybe time for Pete to open, and stickie, a new thread?
For the record, area hit a new max on friday. http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.htmlAs far as 'new ice' is concerned i suspect that march 6th was the maximum extent for ice growth this season with subsequent gains being nothing more than anomalies created by the measuring 'cut off' points of 15 and 30% ?
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Ye should all move to the west of Ireland.
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I seem to recall a debate about the near Mediterranean temps some sites were plotting at the McKenzie delta that Aug? If we think about the Russio/Siberian outlets then we must be seeing rapid changes? With the permafrost retreating in Siberia the River Basins must provide an artery of melted land as the river warmth thaws out the land they run through?
The land temps are only just beginning to respond to the loss of sea ice so this is another feed back only just starting to kick in.
Have you any sources for these theories or is it just plain speculation?
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I'm surprised we have so little ice given the lack of high pressure and warm temperatures, indeed I would have thought the bottled up cold over the arctic this winter would have helped ice retention.
Last winter saw a healthy ice cover which lasted through the summer thanks to low heights over the poles.
Anyone give a reason why ice cover is so low.
The cold wasn't bottled up, the polar vortex spent the entire winter over North America while the arctic experienced well above average temperatures.
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7.0 please.
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When discussing albedo changes, it's necessary to take into account ice thickness and snow cover. Thinner ice is more transparent to light, and in June last year, while extent was negligibly below average, the ice was about 45% thinner than normal and northern hemisphere snow cover was 36% below average, reducing snow cover by 3.4 million km2.
The current Antarctic sea ice gain is a useful -ve feedback, but is dwarfed by the summer changes in the northern hemisphere.
I understand that I'm more pointing out that some people will only ever take note of the negative points, and will completely ignore a situation that is not dire.
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I think you have confused the 'scale' of the issue 'T'?
What ,as a percentage, does the higher level of ice retention mean in terms of extra percentage of what we would normally see across the summer southern ocean? Now when that figure increases to even find itself in the same ball park as the percentage losses in the Arctic ( in both early summer snow melt uncovering land early and summer sea ice cover no longer covering expanses of ocean) then we might have something meriting discussion ( I think?).
Anyone got any numbers to help illustrate this point? I'm sure we are looking at 1/3rd reduction in Arctic sea ice cover since the late 80's (33%) and up to a month for 'early snow cover loss'? Are current Sea ice anoms in Antarctica adding up to 10% yet?
EDIT: I'll have a peep at what the current C.T. ice levels are compared to the average and see what the excess is? I may be a little low on the Arctic sea ice levels as both Baffin and Barentsz haven't carried average ice levels all year for over a decade so the influence there would be over 6 months of the year?
I'm not confusing anything 'G', I understand its insignificance completely just pointing out your double standards.
Just for the sake of argument, the antarctic ice area is 13.2% above average at the moment, whereas 7 days before the solstice in the northern hemisphere the arctic ice was 6.5% below average.
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http://www.webwire.com/ViewPressRel.asp?aId=183714#.UqhDU_RdVB0
So not only are satellites enabling us to track down the lowest temperature ever measured on the planet ( see above) they can also now better track the ice losses from the ice sheets there. It appears that 'the only way is up' for mass loss from West Antarctica? When you see folk pointing at sea ice levels getting higher over the past 20 years try and balance that temporary gain ( the 'extra ice melts each summer) with this constant , year on year, 'loss' from the land ice behind and then you decide which is of most significance.
If ice area levels were currently 1.2m km^2 below average, you would be harping on incessantly about albedo and feedbacks, yet when they are 1.2m km^2 above average there isn't even a mention about the positive feedback effects this could be having? Especially given that it is now mid summer in Antarctica and the sun is approaching its highest angle.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
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This years antarctic winter pattern has been very similar to last years, which resulted in the second highest min on record. I wonder what ''some folks'' who are ''deluded'' and ''misleaders'' will say if that is repeated this season?Do you think any of the folk making a hullabaloo about ice levels around Antarctica have bothered to look at the ice there ( now we can get a good look as summer approaches)? I've just begun my yearly checks on 'My Crack' ( From Roosevelt island to central Ross) and am quite shocked at just how fragmented the coastal regions, all around the continent , are. Have we had strong outflow from the Centre over the past few months? ( enough to cause such disruption) and how do we think such will impact melt season? For me the 'sweeping clean' that outflow will cause will mean the ice shelf's spend less time protected by the sea ice and more time under the influence of the open ocean. The other point I would make is the lessening of the 'damping' that contiguous ice provides from the impacts of storm swell on the coastal areas. From my quick glance I would think that a lot of the 'outer ice' is now approaching the 15% cut off and so we should expect rapid decline over the next 6 weeks. If we are still seeing ice shoved out from the continent then this rapid decline will continue through Dec and maybe intro Jan? The spots that have been allowing recent 'growth' in min. figures ( seaward of weddell) will also be impacted if this 'melt train' is set into motion. Though a big worry it would be fun if this comes to pass and the misleaders are left explaining a record min come March............where would the next 'Squirrel' come from???
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It is low, very low in fact. 2 million sq km lower than the 1980's average extent - what amazes me is the lack of coverage any year gets, low or not.Damn not just the snow levels but check out the rate of ice increase! Funny how it barely gets a mention in the Media, but if it was LOW they'd be jumping all over it
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Strong words from a man who repeatedly said we would never go above the 2007 minimum again.This year has turned into a glorious extension of the late spring " Look we've reached average" fest! Are some folk are really setting themselves up for a fall come the next series of losses across the basin or can we comfortably say that the trend of losses we've witnessed over the past 60 yrs has reversed?
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Just to point out, any forecasts were made based on the old version of IJIS, which finished at 5 million, rather than the new version which s 200k lower.IJIS up another 64k today or 178k above the min
Does look like the min of 4809288 12th Sept (my forecast early June of 4.8m for season end seems to have been a good call
)NSIDC sums up the current year nicely
In contrast, this year’s Arctic summer minimum ice extent is approximately 30% below levels seen in the early 1980s, and the 2012 record low extent was around 60% below levels seen in the same period
.â€http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/09/4292/
We need volume and extent going forward
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/09/piomas-september-2013.html
What we don't want is another 'mild' winter in the high artic
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I imagine after last year it would take several seasons of record cold in the high arctic to have much of a positive effect on sea ice.remarkable to see us in the top ten of all time lowest ice levels then keith? Do you think something might be going on?
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Presumably because it fits an agenda!I wonder why folk look at winter ice as some kind of measure and don't focus more on ice shelf loss/mass loss from the ice sheets?
To be fair with regard to summer ice in the SH, last summer had the second highest minimum on record so presumably it does make some difference with albedo and more multiyear ice, but not much.Where we to see, in Antarctica, winter ice becoming multiyear ice then I could grasp it but to see so many folk spending such energies on something that is gone by Feb confuses me? We see similar with Winter snowfall in the N.Hemisphere with similar, if not the same folk?, holding up record high snow cover over winter as significant when recent history shows us that it will all go long before any climatic impacts could be harvested from it? What is the point? For me the increases in Weddell ice cover ( nobody focuses on the areas with less sea ice than their historic norm???) points to the impacts we have wrought from both the ozone hole and background AGW...neither anything to make a song and dance about? We see ocean warmth circumnavigating the strengthened circumpolar current and thinning/collapsing ice shelfs so we know general warming is now getting through so how long before atmospheric warming encroaches further than the peninsula and we start seeing rapid changes ( akin to those occurring on Greenland) across the coastal regions of Antarctica? Surely this is an area more worthy of time spent by folks?
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PIOMAS volume is a model and it gets quoted like gospel around here.And it's a model, not data.
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Hello.
There's mainly northerly across Hudson Bay. This causes the ice to drift away from the north coast, with thinner, newer ice forming to take its place. The northerlies also causes ice to pile up closer to the south, as well as giving it more time to thicken up as it's not being blow away to another location.
Ah right thanks, that makes sense, don't know why I didn't think of that!
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Quick question for anyone who might know this: What causes the ice to the south of Hudson Bay to be thicker than the north? I would have though that it would be the other way around but this gif shows differently!
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Also huge explosion of snow cover yesterday in the US, and hudson bay beginning to freeze.
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Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2014/2015: The Refreeze
in Climate Change
Posted
Where are you getting the idea that the 'good ice' is on the Atlantic side? Ever map I've seen has shown a strong Beaufort gyre which has pushed the vast majority of multi year ice towards the Pacific side.