MurcieBoy
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Posts posted by MurcieBoy
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Really hope this takes off; well done to those who make it happen!
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Yes, many thanks from me too Roger for all your efforts.
My forecast was made using my usual method and variances were expected. As stated before, I shall be looking at the variances from these trials to see what other information I need to take into account to formulate the definitive DNA for a particular day.
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My effort was based on 00:00hrs 20 March 2011 and here are the comparision charts showing the variances:
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In other words, the models seem to be picking up some of the energy discussed in this thread, but without any strong signs of development at this rather late stage.
You are correct, the energy is there. Its just a question of whether it manifests itself in the part of the world covered by the forecast map on 20 March 2011.
The events around the world, in all aspects of Nature, over the last two and a half months suggest this will be an "extreme" kind of year.
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Hi RJS, its fascinating again seeing the flip flop of the GFS and the individual movements of the correlations. Re my forecast, not that it may make much of a difference, but I would just like to say it was based on 00:00hrs charts (rather than 12:00hrs).
Re suggestion for another challenge: each year I host a BBQ and big Fun Day for the kids (and adults) in the summer in my business and invariably it rains (sometimes with a lot of wind too!) or it is too cold for a "summer day out" in a T shirt and shorts. This year, I have decided to set the date now (in March) and undertook my research into which week will be the hottest for this summer with the likelihood of sunshine (and no rain!). I have found the week and have set the date for my guests! It will definitely (edit: or should I say, according to my calculations) be excellent BBQ weather - perhaps the hottest in recent years!
If you fancy a challenge (open to all, as per 20 March challenge) for guessing the hottest day/week in London (so as we can be quite specific) this summer and what the likely temperature will be, I would be up for that. Perhaps folk could submit predictions by 31 March 2011?
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So 10 minutes of various clips of news coverage isn't backslapping? The whole thing is only 15 minutes long....
The clips and web headlines were there to highlight what happened; it was necessary to objectively show what happened in an Appraisal video covering 7 days of forecasting.
The "10 minutes of various clips" therefore equally verified objectively the "Spectacular failures" and any positive verifications.
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Well, I think we just have to agree to differ re the last two posts.
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The video was only that length as it was vital to get across what actually happened throughout that five day period. Without such an understanding, any appraisal would have been flawed.
When the original forecast came out the first reasoned questions related to the strength of the winds; ie: whether there would be a Jet Stream with such ferocity. In deciding how to create the video, I felt it was vital to address this issue. Leaving aside that reasoning, the BBC weather forecasters made sure from their comments, the strong "over 200mph" Jet Stream would be the key feature of any appraisal video.
The Appraisal video by definition needed to refer to the original forecast for comparison. When things were wrong they were described as "Spectacular Failures"; when there were positive verifications they were described blandly as such. However, there was no "backslapping"; in fact, I did not even give a verdict on the forecast.
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Re the ridicule point, I could be wrong, but such comments only serve to put off newcomers from coming forward with new ideas (which is what this industry of LRF needs IMO, speaking as an outsider).
If one honestly looks at this industry and takes away all the advances in technology (computers, computer software, satellites, radar, telecomminications, the Internet), how far has it really moved forward in the last 150 years or so? Are we much closer in really understanding what drives the weather?
Even with this technology, as a layman, as far as I can see, the LRF industry in making a forecast relies upon a weather system to start, then sophisticated state of the art sensors around the Earth and in Space track it, the models use that information and generate LRF charts that are way off and very changeable to begin with, but close in on the actual from around 3-7 days of the target day.
As one respected poster on here once said: “if we built bridges and airplanes the way we make weather forecasts, a lot of people would refuse to get on a plane or drive a carâ€.
My comments about ridiculing (throughout this thread and on another Forum) are therefore all about the negative impact it may have in tackling the real issues facing this industry.
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You said North Sea, that did not occur. You got it wrong,
That is why the video says "Spectacular Failure"; the Appraisal video acknowledges the forecast was wrong
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and your video seeks to prove you got most of it right.
Please stop insulting the intelligence of members on this site.
The video only seeks to give the facts; as reported by the Met Office, BBC, NOAA (GFS) and Satellite images (Naval Research Laboratory).
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I am a bit of a stickler for getting quotes correct.
Then please objectively scrutinise the whole text in the Forecast and Appraisal videos
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... dramatic music onto a video......Trading Standards..... sleight of hand .....pushed an interesting idea into Piers Corbyn territory.... you may have convinced me that even though throwing a head, you meant it to be a tail.
Now he makes his honest comment
No, sorry, it was ridiculing and that is not acceptable under the terms of this Forum.
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You cannot post ideas/forecasts with such bold statements and not expect criticism.
I only object to the principle that those that genuinely try to make some headway in the subject of Long Term Weather Forecasting are ridiculed for no reason other than because they step out of line from the norm.
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come on MB
....simply accept it did not occur as you predicted it would.
Of course I do, I am the first to admit it!
If you read the text in the Appraisal video it states:
I don't know if I could have put it more candidly or bluntly that it was wrong!
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... dramatic music onto a video......Trading Standards..... sleight of hand .....pushed an interesting idea into Piers Corbyn territory.... you may have convinced me that even though throwing a head, you meant it to be a tail.
There is no mockery or ridicule implied or actual. [before edit]
Yeah, right!
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Yes
The thing I have learnt is that putting dramatic music onto a video, then showing an Atlantic storm with clips of action in Scotland when we were all supposed to be looking towards Holland for one of the TOP 5 storms of the last 300 years + trying to use that as an example of the 'Great North Sea Storm of February 2011', would surely get you in trouble with Trading Standards if you were to sell it (let alone the TV company copyright for the weather clips!!!) :lol:
I'm sure many people could have predicted this follow up video, comments and sleight of hand that turned around a forecast that was ultimately wide of the mark on the major points. But I am disappointed that you haven't been more prudent and circumspect in your self-analysis and I'm afraid this has pushed an interesting idea into Piers Corbyn territory now and I think I'm going to leave it there.
As I said at the beginning, if you hadn't of been so specific in the events, magnitude, direction, location and timing, you may have convinced me that even though throwing a head, you meant it to be a tail.
I am reluctantly thinking that whatever I did Coast, you would criticise and try to ridicule. If you are able to be objective/balanced, perhaps you should read all the text on the videos more closely; rather than being so selective, so as to promote a negative angle with a view of trying to mock another human being.
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I told my 8yo son there was going to be a big storm at the beginning of February...he in turn told some of his schoolmates and came to an arrangement with one of the girls that if there was one she would have to do whatever he said for one day and vice versa. I didn't want to enquire too much as to what exactly they would be asking each other to do....but suffice to say that my son was happy as he was proved "right".
My, that has made me smile! Brilliant!!
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Well put together but I do think you concentrated on the wind strength rather than its direction which is what caused so many ears to prick up when you produced your forecast.
Most models, granted not the GFS charts you showed did not, but the longer term 'synoptic' type charts from their initial idea of a 'mobile' rather than a blocked Atlantic were suggesting a return, at least for a time, towards the end of January/early February of this mobility.
Drivers such as the AO and NAO down to the 500mb anomaly charts, in their rather different time scales, did show this.
As to what method you use then I have no understanding of it but do suggest you explain it, show a succession of forecasts at a similar time ahead, and let all judge you on several outputs. The more the better. If you succeed in a score of over 50% over say 10-12 predictions then you can begin to feel you have something going for you. Another idea, not dissimilar to Rogers' input is for someone other than yourself to assess you. I know from my own experience that trying to be objective about ones own forecasts is incredibly difficult.
good luck anyway.
Thanks, took a wee while to gather the info and to put the thing together. The Satellite Images sequence alone took ages to download (there were almost 500 of them!).
Each to their own as to how to evaluate; yes, always best to have an objective evaluation.
For me, if there were no really strong winds/very strong Jet Stream in the target area and in the time specified that would have been the biggest failure.
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I think thats a fair analysis.Like you state MB there were some accurate comparisons that no sceptic can deny.With regards to your future forecasts, have you seen any other extreme weather for the UK this winter?
Thanks.
Been busy with other work for the last few weeks. Did take a squint from my rough notes from last summer, I have something windy/stormy in the UK for August and November this year. Will look at these more closely (and whether there is more extreme weather in the UK for the rest of the winter) when I have a bit more time.
Got a couple of extreme weather events in the US that I might look into further and publish some forecasts.
At the moment, I am trying to reflect a wee bit on the Feb 2011 storm forecast. I think from one perspective it may be pointless churning out more forecasts without squeezing out what I can learn from this one.
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For those that have taken a keen interest in this thread and also for completeness, here's the appraisal video to the Feb 2011 Storm forecast
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Just for the sake of completeness, here are the complete set of actuals:
Many thanks to RJS for his objective appraisals and conclusion.
Folk can subjectively debate to the nth degree whether the Storm Forecast was a hit or a very wild miss, or whatever in between; as already stated, my focus now lies in objectively researching the reasons behind the variances.
Finally, I'd also like to say many thanks to Coast, the other moderators and everyone who positively contributed to this thread.
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What a day in the Premier League! Nice comeback by Newcastle; great to see Spurs win!
Back on topic: I am sure the Storm Forecast will polarise opinion; these two divergent posts on another forum sum it up (made me chuckle):
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Re Tornadoes: I will quietly reflect on the last three predictions in the next few weeks, do some research and will hopefully be able to come back with some video predictions.
The "method" clearly needs refining (I knew this from the start, before I published any predictions) and I needed "feedback" from Nature to tell me what refinements I needed to make; that was the whole purpose of publishing specific and detailed Experimental Forecasts, which have now provided me with the clear variance information that I needed and sought at the outset. This variance information will be the centre of my follow up research. Unfortunately, I cannot answer certain recently raised questions from posters, as at this stage I have a host of healthy key questions for myself and it is up to me to try and fathom out the answers (this is the part I enjoy the most).
Glad to see a few Spurs fans on here!
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In a week of Storms over the UK, even Westminster had their own:
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^^ Meso, I'd like to see Spurs play Barcelona at some point (after the latter have despatched the Gooners....)
Right here is the last comparison with GFS and the Actuals:
5 Feb
Actuals:
28 Jan
30 Jan
1 Feb
2 Feb
3 Feb
4 Feb
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Thanks lorenzo for the link. I've been video taping the Scottish TV news coverage over the last few days, so will try and include some of it in the Appraisal video. Re 10 year cycles - yes, have heard of them in the stock market; Spurs used to win cups in a year ending in a 1 - perhaps the Champions League this year? - I will faint!
On the subject of links, apart from this thread, this was my favourite thread on the web which featured a link to my Youtube video. It starts off:
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My first message now even for once. I will sometimes fill in more details in my profile. I am currently living in Panheel (Mid Limburg / on the Meuse). I always keep myself busy with water etc.
It just struck me that despite the tide in the wind direction IJmuiden [waterstand=water level] starts to deviate from the astronomical tide. Still nothing special but I thought it was striking:
The person over on the Dutch Forum posted up some updated water level charts (adding two other reference points) at around 7.30pm local time:
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Presenter on radio4 forecast said the highest gust he's seen was 134MPH in Aonach Mor
well done on your forcast 10/10 for timing,less for some of the wind speeds quoted,
but as you've stated early days in your method
Many thanks.
My fault entirely for the confusion, but the greatest gusts that were in the Storm Forecast were 110-140mph. The higher mph values related to Gradient Winds, see:
Wind speed: as requested, I am able to clarify the wind speeds that I refer to in the forecast are in mph and refer to the Gradient Winds. The strongest gusts (not gradient winds) over the North Sea during the 1-5 Feb 2011 are forecasted to be around 110-140 mph. I hope this clears up any confusion that may have arisen, for which I apologise (I wanted to get the forecast out before the Bells!)
NB: The BBC are saying the Jetstream reached 200mph (the largest figure seen by the weatherman who made the video cast on their website).
BTW, even if the Feb 2011 Storm Forecast verified 100% it would not negate the need for the method to be tested over an extended length of time before it proved worthy to me.
Met Office to build £97m supercomputer
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
News of this today caught my eye.
I remember when I posted up my forecasts on here a few years back, my pc cost me just a few hundred quid!
My 2p's worth to today's news would be:
- this should be great for short term forecasting, but to forecast long term accurately (ie: months and years ahead), one really needs to step back and understand what are the true underlying causes of our weather
- To have sensors around the planet, linked to super computers tracking and modelling weather movement is not "true forecasting"
- To truly forecast is to predict something before the "embryo", so to speak, has formed; ie: to accurately predict months and years ahead. As long as we think this cannot be done, we shall not avail ourselves to the opportunity of learning how it could be done.....