Beazle
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Posts posted by Beazle
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Incidentally, one of the directors of the HAD-Cru project is on record as saying that his global warming theories are bust if the record for the warmest year is not broken at least every 15 years and that he would also expect at least half of the years in the 2011 to 2020 period to be hotter than 1998. So not long to wait until the theory stands up or breaks.
Of course the theory will not stand up. Then the Left will move on to something else. Perhaps they may even take up the cause of a REAL environmental issue such as overpopulation.
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Clearly 2001-2007 were following the global warming trend but 2008, 2009 and 2010 have shown a definite cooldown.
Ah,...the great global warming trend....How amusing it all seems now.
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Manley (Eden) CET to the 30th is minus 0.7 C.
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Manley (Eden) CET to the 29th is minus 0.9 C.
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Manley (Eden) at minus 1.1 C to the 28th.
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whats the lowest annual cet on record?
1740- 6.8 !!!!!!!
Check out the winter that started that year also - the all time champion.
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Manley CET to the 26th= minus 1.4 - Hadley =minus 1C
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Stratos ferric on the 26th January 2010
It may be a long time before we see its like again - unless, of course, we are entering a period of sustained cooling. Personally I doubt it, but then I would have doubted that we could come in this far below 3.0C again
You don't have to be a QC (although it just so happens...) but the highest "SF" said was..."may"... and.. "..doubt"..
In other words he was sensibly not being dogmatic about his thoughts.
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Manley CET: -1.4C by the 26th
It was a long time ago that we had a value that low so far into the month.
Its going to be the coldest CET month since February 1986
Today to Thursday are the danger days...........................
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The CET figure is entirely dependent on the stations selected to supply the data. As far as I can remember Philip Eden uses station which most closely represent those originally used by Manley. I would have to look up the stations used by Hadley ( I bet someone on here knows them by heart) but I seem to remember there are fewer of them than Philip uses, and some, at least, are different.
Edit; I just looked it up and Hadley uses Pershore in Worcestershire, Rothamstead in Herts and Stonyhurst in Lancashire.
All I could find for Philip Eden is that he uses a selection of stations between Oxfordshire and the Lancashire Plain which most closely represent those used by Manley.
Thanks for that. I suppose it doesn't really matter 99% of the time but in the present exciting circumstances, we don't want a squabble over whether or not this was THE coldest December ever. I guess that is why this site uses Hadley even if it is not quite as accurate (in Manley terms) as one would want. At least we have a consistent means of comparison.
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..... Hadley is -0.9C to the 25th. Yesterday came in at -4.3C. Another chilly min today too at -9.0C, so a figure of -1.0C is likely tomorrow.
I see that Phillip Eden has -1.3 . Can you explain to me why PE and Hadley seem to disagree ? I would have thought, perhaps simplistically, that a CET is a CET ....Obviously not !
Its going to be the coldest November-December CET combination since at least 1890.
If December 2010 turns out exactly zero then November-December 2010 will have a CET of 2.6C
November-December
1890: 2.45
1879: 2.4
1878: 1.6
1874: 2.7
1870: 2.65
1807: 2.4
1796: 2.15
1782: 2.55
1683: 2.5
1676: 1.5
Sensational!
Yep ! And unless something really sensationally warm happens on Wednesday and Thursday, we should have something colder than zero. I see that this morning's update (3.46am) seems to reduce the previously warmer figures for Wednesday-Thursday,....so we shall see.
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Unless we have a significant warm spell during the last 6 days, CET for 2010 will be an incredible 8.88 to 8.94.
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They are talking about the UK national record which only started in 1910, as opposed to the CET records which do, in fact, go back to the 17th century.
I suppose the Met Office would rather use the national record instead of the CET to avoid accusations of being too England-centric. Another advantage of focusing on the UK record is that whether or not this December's CET beats 1890 becomes irrelevant. In other words, as far as the UK record (since 1910) is concerned this IS the coldest December on record. It is also much more satisfying for our sensationalist media to be able to say "coldest December on record" without having to add "since 1890.."
Whilst I fully agree that our media are prone to sensationalise and play the the lowest common denominator, THIS December has been truly sensational- a month we will all talk about for ever.
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You're not being serious, right?
Well, as has been pointed out, I should not have posted that on this site and I apologise.
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I am not in the slightest concerned with my so called "carbon footprint". Classic left wing propaganda to prop up research grants and out bloated public sector.
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. Despite the nonsense from certain people above, the MetOffice would not fiddle the longest running temperature series in the world just so it didnt break a record. Indeed, Im sure many in the department are willing it down as much as the rest of us!
I used to have your faith in the MET-not anymore.
And by that i do not mean the average mid line employees. The upper reaches of the MET are under enormous political pressure - and a record for LOW temperature is not what their masters want. Give me Eden any day.
But how wonderful it is - who would ever have thought that we would have the chance to live through either the first or second coldest December ever !!!!!!!!
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Phillip Eden CET for Dec 1-23 is minus 1C. His is the most accurate and free from the politics so sadly prevalent at the MET. The all time December record according to Manley is 0.8 (1890).
This could be it !!!!!!!!!!!!
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Thank you Stu for the clarification re CET. My apologies. That makes sense. I still much prefer Eden to the MET office for precisely the same reasons he has given previously. In summary, I trust Phillip and believe that his figures are free from, shall we say, political bias.
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Thank you TWS.
I have real concerns about the Met Offices's CET figures being "official" for precisely the same reasons previously given by Eden. I much prefer and trust Eden as a more accurate continuation of Manley despite Parker's work. For me at least, Eden's current figure of 0.9 will do.
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The current December CET on this site is "only" -0.29C whereas, Phillip Eden has a figure of -0.9. His projected yearly CET is 8.95. I would certainly much prefer Eden's methods and credibility than those of the MET office and I wonder why this site seems so out of kilter ?
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The current CET on this site is "only" -0.29C whereas, Phillip Eden has a figure of -0.9. I would certainly much prefer Eden's methods and credibility than those of the MET office and I wonder why this site seems so out of kilter ?
Annual Cet - 2010
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Beazle
Manley CET (Eden)= 8.91