Stormcast
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Excellent! Yorkshire and Humber included. May be worth staying up now?
Seems more promising, but I fear that i'll be on the eastern most extent of the precipitation, but you never know.
Either way, we'll all know come 12:30 1:00am with regards to will it won't it. if it looks promising i'll be going for a drive to the humber bridge.
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Yellow warnings issued on meto:
http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html
For heavy rain and thunderstorms
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Ha thats funny, when you think they put out a headline on there Weather section reading 'Spanish Plume for Parched South East' . . . . 2 days later we've barely had a dribble.
But look at the positive, there's practically sod all electrics in that load of rain so I say let the rest of the country go bonkers for steady rain - when the good stuff comes dancing over the channel when Summer starts hopefully it will be our turn then.
Yes but when we have nice lovely warm weather, and BBQ'S in the gardens with the kids and family in the swimming pool, you'll have a hose pipe ban
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signs of the cold front approaching in the SW, look at the intensification and activity off the tip of Cornwall.
As the cold front approaches it should transfer energy eastwards, so we may all get in on the action, would be perfect timing at around 2-3am IMHO for eastern parts of the country, SE, EA, East Midlands, Lincs and Yorkshire. As NMM shows some very nice ML cape values with a negative LI, could give a lovely elevated show.
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Somebody needs to round things up as people seem to be getting down about tonight, has anyone got a summary of what people can expect over tonight?
Just so people will stop complaining.
If you don;t get storms its not the end of the world!
I'll have a go
The weather is unpredictable, and with such unstable conditions, forcing etc/energy. storms can break out almost anywhere, take the leeds and NW cells for example, and the cells now pushing into NW parts of Scotland.
We have until tomorrow night, even then places may see some storms, I think over the next 24 hours we will all see something, but no need to be downbeat, it's tiring but very enjoyable this type of weather, the whole discussion, radar watching, lightning detector tracking etc.
What we have to remember is that we are only in May, summer has only just started.
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Dew points remain high, infact they have risen here, currently 17.5c with a dew of 14c.
I just checked the latest NMM and it's looking good for the SE through Cambridge, parts of East Anglia and then into Lincs and E/N Yorkshire.
Another pulse is expected to push Northwards, and intensify all the while during the early hours of this morning 1-2am, there's no surface based CAPE and LI, but there's some 400-600 ML CAPE with a negative LI associated with the heavy precipitation, torrential rain is pretty much a certainty, but there's a very good possibility of some elevated storms associated with the precipitation during the early hours for the above named locations.
Much needed rain!
Good Luck.
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Dew points across much of the United Kingdom at or around the 50 Fahrenheit mark, currently 56 degrees Fahrenheit here (13c)
area to watch during the course of tonight is NE parts of France, and eastern parts.
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Is there any kind people on the south coast that could provide real live footage of the storms coming from the continent tonight. Its likely I won't see one here, so would love to share yours. Thanks
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thanks guys, wonderful!
stay safe
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I'm sure I can see some radar echoes appearing in the South Midlands on NW radar.
Convection starting to kick off
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Did my eyes just see right? I have sun :o
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Hi guys,
A little confused so maybe one of the more experienced members can shed light, the NMM model (precipitation rate charts) shows a heavy pulse/organized band of precipitation pushing Northwards from the south tonight into the early hours. I have looked at the CAPE and LI values, both for ML cape and surface based, and it's very poor.
Is the precipitation tonight expected to be of a thundery/electrical nature, or just very heavy rainfall?
thanks
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Sun trying to come out here in North Cave - E.Yorkshire
What's people's view on activity for eastern areas this evening and during tomorrow- I would say slim.
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I need sleep if I can get any , it's a muggy 17c up here.
night night netweather
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Most of those are old strikes though
Thanks richep,
I was trying to work out the color codes, so the white dots are strikes that have been verified in the last 20 mins?
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Good spot!
Look at whats fired up in the bay of biscay and heading North eastwards!
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Latest Strike Star showing SFERICS pepping up over the channel around Le Havre in the North of France. Next batch on the way? Kent could be in the firing line during the early hours.
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Looks like SW parts and S parts of London are going to get a bit wet, much needed rainfall. SFERICS showing on the lightning detector.
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Hi guys.
ML CAPE will start to rise now, and during the early hours, expect showers/storms to break out off the South Coast and as they track NNE during the early hours they will become more organized and hefty. A majority of the electrical activity will be elevated, as the morning goes on and we get more surface based CAPE and rising temperatures with higher dew points we may see some highly electrical stuff, with some very big storms. West Midlands through the central belt looks best.
Convective / Storm Chat And Discussion
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Indeed it would be, it's a fantastic viewing point.
I'll never forget the storms of summer 2005, me and my friend went to watch the show, it was 4-5 hours of constant activity, thanks to a Spanish Plume, lovely fat MCS, which has nowhere near being beaten to that eventful night.