weather12
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Posts posted by weather12
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I've been on this forum long enough to learn who knows their stuff when it comes to Meteorology and those who pretend to know.
I won't be responding anymore on this thread because its clearly the attention that you are seeking.
Well you are very misguided then arent you... member john holmes has seen proof of my business and credentials.
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I have no problem with anyone who doesn't believe in LRT. However the flack weather 12 has recieved is perfectly justified in my opinion.
Look at this comment from weather 12.
Now I have very little understanding of the techniques GP uses for his forecasts. However because of my little understanding I wouldn't dare call the forecast "vague" because to do so is disrespectful. Only if I was as knowledgeable as GP could I make such a comment. Clearly this applies to weather 12 also!
As for weaher 12 forecast and I don't mean to be rude but these days anyone can post a 7 day forecast very easily. The models pretty much do it all for you!
And why would that apply to me as well? U know nothing about my credentials.
I've posted a quick 8 day forecast and yet you still complain. You cant please everyone!
There is a reason why I stick with shorter time frames and that's because they're more reliable than guess work lrf's!
Not too bad for a first attempt W12. Even though it is fairly simplistic to interpret the main models, I would be intrigued to know your thoughts behind your forecast and indeed those for the next few months. I eagerly anticipate your contributions to the tech' thread.............
Thanks.
I use several different models, inclusive of GFS.
As for my thoughts on the next few months, who knows (nobody does!).
Saying that, I would think we'll get some periods of settled, very warm or locally hot weather at times in July/August, but that's based on the fact it's Summer and you would kind of expect that to happen at some point :-p
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Post your own LRF - (I live in hope!)
I wont be posting a long range forecast as it's not possible to do so.
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You come on here, with a bee in your bonnet about the NW long range Summer forecast, proclaim it's wrong during the first week of Summer, reckon you can do your own LRF, yet only do 1 week?
How is that a fair arguement? Do your own 3 month summer forecast, then just maybe we can compare yours with the NW one.
Again, try reading my previous posts and you'll work it all out (i live in hope!).
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Some very poor comments above.
I'd rather hoped someone would enable me to "get it" regarding LRF interpretation but no-one seems able.
Agreed.
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Has your space bar broke? :lol:
Thanks for coming up with some sort of forecast however I cant help but say you do seem to have come here just to slate long range forecasting and Netweather's Forecast. Im sure you will probably disagree but at least NW have had the guts (Stewart specifically!) to go with their forecast and have admitted that some alterations have need to be made. Stewart has an excellent record but whilst you may disagree with LRF, it does seem you have been rather enjoying winding others up and for a "Pro forecaster" (Not saying you arent!) it does not paint a very good picture on yourself.
I shall say no more however its a shame this thread now seems to be centred more around your posts and ideas (And because of this I am adding to this you could say!) rather than how the NW Forecast is progressing regardless of whether its going well or not.
But again, that's nothing to do with me is it...
I've had private message after private message asking me what I do, which department I work in etc etc.
There have been constant messages on this topic asking me to write forecasts and explain myself. I cannot control what others write.
As i said before, this isnt about me and I never wanted it to be about me... yet I seem to get the blame because you're all writing questions with an intention for me to respond.
Fair play to Netweather if they want to issue a lrf and all credit to them, but that doesnt change the fact I dont agree with it.
And again, I dont know where this 'pro forecaster' term has come from as I never wrote it!
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Just one thing,could you space out your words a bit better please?
At times it was like reading a forecast by Stanley Unwin.
Sorry, i wrote it in MS Word and copied/pasted it into the text box here.
Dont think changing the text size helped either :-s
Sorry, i wrote it in MS Word and copied/pasted it into the text box here.
Dont think changing the text size helped either :-s
And again I would like to point out... this thread is not about me, what I do for a living, what I eat for breakfast etc... it is about long range forecasting.
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no criticism, but Sunday 12th does look wet, hope thats wrong! 0nly criticism I do have is no location in your profile, nobody knows where your from
Hampshire.
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For all my adoring fans!
Friday 10th June 2011
Area of low atmospheric pressure centered between the UKand Iceland.
A showery day for most parts, more akin to April than early Summer! Most prolific and widespread showers forcentral and northern areas of the country, although a batch of widespread,heavy showers are likely to affect south wales and the south west of England too,perhaps merging into a longer spell of rain for some. Temperatures ranging from 11-15C in thenorth, 15-18C in the south.
Saturday 11th June 2011
High pressure tries to ridge in from the south, failingto do so and transferring into France / Germany instead. Showers will again feature in the forecast,working from west to east across the country. Again the most prolific and widespread cells probably across Wales,Midlands, East Anglia northwards. That's not to say a few showers wont feature in southern areas too. Temperatures ranging from 11-15C in the north, 15-18C in the south.
Sunday 12th June 2011
New area of low atmospheric pressure steaming in fromthe Atlantic. Increasingly breezy orwindy for most, with moderate / heavy rain tracking its way into western areasinitially, transferring to the east as the day progresses. Rain perhaps turning a little less heavy andmore fragmented as it reaches the east. Variabletemperatures, from 10-13C in the rain. 14-17C in any brightness.
Monday 13th June 2011
Low pressure moves away to affect Scotland and the farnorth. Higher pressure begins to buildin from the south. Still a few showersdotted about, although a real improvement for many, with some spells ofsunshine and drier conditions. Cloudyskies and more persistent rain /showers could still affect Scotland and the far north,along with stronger winds. 11-15C in thenorth, 16-19C in the south.
Tuesday 14th June 2011
High pressure hangs on for another day, althoughgradually being squeezed out by another Atlantic weather system. Predominantly dry for most, with some brightor sunny intervals. Again, just a fewshowers dotted around, most likely to affect northern areas of the country. 12-16C in the north, 16-20C in the south.
Wed-Fri 15th / 17th June 2011
Low pressure continues to work in from theAtlantic. No sign of Summer, with a mixtureof rain/showers at times. Some drier andbrighter interludes between falls of rain, especially in the south. Temperatures not too far from the average forthe time of year, anywhere from 14-18C in the north, 15-20C in the south.
Let the criticism begin! :-p
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Silly comment about being banned.
Perhaps from now on you should let your forecast do the talking for you.
Sorry, but the mods are telling me not to do so, looks like I wont be issuing any!
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Or even better, temporarily banned from the forum until the end of Summer - giving plenty of free time to prepare a LRF for Winter
Fat chance and if I was, i'd just create another username...
So here's my dilema...
I'm being told to shut up by people on here...
Yet, im getting private messages to tell me to write forecasts and post them in other threads...
I'm either going to shouted at, or i'm going to be shouted at!
I never wanted this thread to be about myself, I think it's the others who are to blame, not me. I want to discuss lrf and this isnt about my forecasting skills. That doesnt mean to say I wont honor a weather forecast later or tomorrow.
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W12 if you get paid to do somthing that makes it a profession.
And your point is?
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I would also like the clarify, that the MetO's "BBQ summer" (although not their term) forecast was not completely wrong either!
We had about a three month period where pretty much EVERY weekend in the SE saw temps ranging between 24-30C with the weather far more often than not, beautiful sunshine. Showers/storms did punctuate the 2009 "bbq summer" season during the week but do many of us have BBQs midweek? Not likely.
Admittedly northern and western areas had a much wetter summer...but the SE IMO had a very good one, and for my area at least, would call it a BBQ summer.
For a relatively small island, we have a tendency to blanket the whole nation with the same weather type/climatic conditions - IMO this itself is false and misleading.
On the more topical note, and as a reminder (or informative for those who were conceived 10 years later lol), this is what the "1976 drought" was all about....
The temperature reached 80°F (26.7°C) every day between 22 June and 16 July. For 15 consecutive days from 23 June to 7 July inclusive, temperatures reached 90°F (32.2°C) somewhere in England on each of these 15 days. Furthermore, five days saw temperatures exceed 95°F (35°C). On 28 June, temperatures reached 35.6°C (96.1°F) in Southampton, the highest June temperature recorded in the UK. The hottest day of all was 3 July, with temperatures reaching 35.9°C (96.6°F) in Cheltenham, one of the hottest July days on record in the UK.
The great drought was due to a very long dry period. The summer and autumn of 1975 were very dry, and the winter of 1975-76 was exceptionally dry, as was the spring of 1976, indeed some months during this period had no rain at all in some areas.
The drought was at its most severe in August 1976. Parts of the south west went 45 days without any rain in July and August. As the hot, dry weather continued, devastating heath and forest fires broke out in parts of Southern England. 50,000 trees were destroyed at Hurn Forest in Dorset. Crops were badly hit, with £500 million worth of crops failing. Food prices subsequently increased by 12%.[2]
In the last week of August, severe thunderstorms brought rain to some places for the first time in weeks. September and October 1976 were both very wet months, and the great drought of 1975-1976 had finally ended
So, the heat didn't arrive until late June. Hasn't so far but charts are hinting for ridges to try and edge back in. GP's revised data is hinting at early July for prolonged heat (what's a week and a half?!?1?)
Followed a very dry winter and spring....sounds like late 2010 early 2011 to me.
Temperatures exceeded 90F on 15 consecutive days...it wasn't far off that in 2006 across the a fair portion of the UK (more so the SE) where for 21 or so consecutive days the temperature ranged from 28C to 36C (2006 wasn't memorable but those temperatures were achieved - so 15 consecutive days of excessive heat is hardly requiring the apocalypse!)
Heath and forest fires broke out - well we've already had these this year from Kent to NW Scotland
So...please accept my apologies JH, but as final word, please read the above carefully! At no point did GP (or NW's "PR bandwagon") ever say it would be a repeat of 1976 - they said there would be shades of it. Based on the account above (albeit wikipedia but I have little reason to distrust them too much) we have already witnessed a number of these "shades" with every sign that prolonged hot spells are on the cards.
(That's me finished
)Good post...
Where are these prolonged hot spells in the models? I cant see anything yet.
you wont get away with bullonions here you know.... there are some of the countries most experienced and knowlegable meterologists here, if you are not what you say you are, a trained met man, you will be instantly sussed out. you cant fake knowlege, and if you are as 'trained' as you claim im surprised you are holding the position you are regarding forecasting.
give it a rest! and people say im forceful on here!
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WTF? ..... there are some very bored idiots here today...
if you have no faith in lrf's then ignore them, ... simples.
But this a forum... i thought the idea of a forum is for the purpose of discussion?
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I personally think W12 is a forum troll. He's mentioned several times that he's a pro forcaster and yet after spending all day on this thread stiring away we still have no forcast from him.....strange. To those who say that if a LRF gets updated its no longer an LRF......err what is it then??? Short?? Forgive me if im wrong but the forcast goes upto and including August no?? Thats 2 and a bit months upto the end of august, if that isnt long then what is? I would much rather an LRF that does get updated periodically to reflect recent changes and to maintain some from of accuracy for the 2 months ahead, rather than have a forcast that is completely wrong in 2 months time.
If you want an LRF to not change and be static then maybe it shouldnt be called an LRF maybe more like a Guess/prediction
Thanks for the compliment Winter Monsoon!
Your posting is littered with flaws...
First up, I never mentioned I am a pro forecaster.. those are your words not mine.
I have said I will issue a forecast, possibly later today or whenever I have some free time to look at all the relevant models.
I cant make it any clearer than it already is. If you change a long range forecast every few weeks, it cannot be labelled as such and is nothing more than a short/medium term forecast.
I think you've nailed it on the head there... a long range forecast is exactly that... guess work!
I could argue that Charlie Dimmock gave professional gardeners a bad reputation..... Her reputation is her reputation, mine is my own; work and careers stand on their own merit. No one judges the acting profession on the skills or otherwise of Sylvester Stallone now do they?
Let your skills and reputation stand on it's own merit, make that promised forecast.
I completely agree with you there... but unfortunately the public will always gather everyone under the same roof. That is a bad thing.
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Every forecast has the possibility of going wrong though.
Should we therefore stop forecasting altogether and just stick our head out the window?
Of course it does...
Though I was answering in reference to his example.
Putting such forecasts out in the public eye is a dangerous thing and their credibility suffered as a result.
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and in the meantime w12 I assume you are writing the forecast you promised this site?
Not atm, I will probably write something later this evening if that's ok.
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Sorry but IMO that's rot.
The METO famously got the BBQ summer prediction wrong, did this reflect badly on every meteorologist? No it didn't.
GP clearly understands what he is doing, the forecast hasn't changed because he didn't understand the subject, it has changed because one of the major climate drivers changed mode - that, and the revisions show a clear understanding and thorough knowledge.
You may not fully understand how all the tele-connections fit together, I certainly don't but I appreciate being given the opportunity to further my understanding by reading the work of others who know more than me. GP clearly explains what he expects to happen and more importantly, why. Why is that wrong?
I'm sorry if this offends, it isn't intended to, but your assertions of keeping it from the "ignorant masses" smacks of someone who wants to mystify their profession in order to keep it exclusive. I've written countless books and magazine articles de-mystifying the black art of gardening; for years it was presented as a terribly complicated business which achieved nothing more than put people off and make them believe they were incapable. It preserved the jobs of the few, it made almost demi-gods of people in the know but it also lead to the wholesale concreting over of gardens by people too scared to even try. That's not a good thing, whatever the occupation or pastime. Knowledge and information is for sharing, not clutching possessively.
I completely disagree with you...
The METO forecast a BBQ summer that went spectacularly wrong... of course it reflected badly on meteorologists and meteorology in general!
So you're telling me it gave meterorologists good credibility in the public eye?
Good post TWS we certainly do need to encourage people into research LRF . No LRF is infallible the slightest change has a huge knock on effect, the key is to learn from past mistakes. GP'S LRF have proven to be very good over a consistent time, and I'm sure he will look back come September and hold his hand up IF the rest of his forecast proves to be wrong.
Lets hope he does!
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Well it could easily be argued that I don't understand, I'm a climate discussion bod, not a model watcher. You don't have to understand the intricacies of weather forecasting to understand that a general forecast is just that, general.
You disagree with long term ones, others find them valid, you think any changes invalidate them, others see the changes as helpful additions to the original - there's not a lot there to mis-understand. It's a difference of opinion, a semantic argument.
The only thing I find puzzling is that you say you're a trained forecaster and yet seem so set against another person trying to further your science, that I find very odd. Why would you do that?
Again, please dont make an assumption im against lrfs... i've always said, there's nothing wrong with experimentation / investigation into the area... just dont release it to the masses otherwise it gives the rest of us meteorologists a bad name!
folks, including w12, can we all give it a rest please?
w12 you have been asked and agreed to do a forecast, I asked you something similar in a pm to you. I'm sure you can look at the differing threads on this forum and decide for yourself where a forecast you prepare, 1, 3, 7 14 days ahead , should be presented. Simply do it. Nor do I understand why preparing a forecast of say 5-7 days is not possible as you are so busy. A forecaster has to be prepared to provide a forecast at short notice, no matter what else is on the list of 'do now'. Its hardly a long task and it MIGHT just stop this constant arguing on this thread about much the same thing.
You and 1 or 2 other share an opinion, rather more have an opposite opinion, so be it, simply move on everyone please.
w12, in spite of not answering either pm's or e mails, I hold no grudge against you and would simply like you to do asap what you have offered-please?
Judging from the last couple of posts whilst preparing this one I'm doing it in the wind!
Of course... though there is a difference between being paid to do a forecast and writing a forecast for a message board.
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Yes, but your assertion has been that if you cannot forecast accurately then a forecast is not worth giving. Surely this sticks to whatever timeframe you choose?
I am not a trained forecaster, weather12, but I would be willing to give it a go as well.
Excellent, we'll go head to head :-p
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An opinion is one thing but repeating it time and again doesn't make it more valid.
As a forecaster I would have thought you would welcome efforts to stretch your science beyond the usual few days forecast. You personally may not believe it possible but that doesn't actually mean it isn't. Many a scientist has stood their ground proclaiming something to be impossible only for another scientist (in some instances, a complete lay person) to come along and prove them wrong. I can't think of an advance in meteorology which hasn't been welcomed with open arms by both the profession and the public at large, so what's the big deal with someone trying to do exactly that?
You wouldn't want your profession to stand still, would you? Is all you now know enough or would you welcome more knowledge and understanding, even if it does come from another person?
As i have said before in previous posts... there is nothing wrong with experimentation and investigation into lrf, but keep it in the background out of general public view. If we dont fully understand it, then why present it to the masses? It gives meteorologists a bad name when such headlines as 'shades of 1976' goes completely tits up.
I agree with these sentiments wholeheartedly.
I don't believe it is possible to predict earthquakes but I do support those who research the subject in the aim of one day being able to do so.
And that is the crux here, we see someone who purports to being a forecaster, that just because he believes that it is not possible to predict in the long range, he does not support those trying to advance this area - an area that would see his own ability increase.
Read my previous posts please before making assumptions.
The best place would probably be the 'In depth techical model discussion' thread. This is where most of the forecasters show their predictions plus it will allow you to demonstrate your depth of knowledge and provide the thought provoking technical analysis which I'm sure will be forthcoming....
Here is the link... Technical thread
Thanks for that, I will no doubt be posting there soon!
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An opinion is one thing but repeating it time and again doesn't make it more valid.
As a forecaster I would have thought you would welcome efforts to stretch your science beyond the usual few days forecast. You personally may not believe it possible but that doesn't actually mean it isn't. Many a scientist has stood their ground proclaiming something to be impossible only for another scientist (in some instances, a complete lay person) to come along and prove them wrong. I can't think of an advance in meteorology which hasn't been welcomed with open arms by both the profession and the public at large, so what's the big deal with someone trying to do exactly that?
You wouldn't want your profession to stand still, would you? Is all you now know enough or would you welcome more knowledge and understanding, even if it does come from another person?
I wouldnt need to keep repeating myself if other people stopped posting the same rubbish that they dont understand... i'm only answering those that have already posted.
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Surely, by your own reasoning, that if you cannot guarantee the forecast being correct, then it is not worth giving a forecast beyond three days (and sometimes a lot less than that)?
Otherwise you are no better than those who forecasts you choose to criticise.
If you see after day five that day six will be hopelessly wrong, will you stick with day six's forecast? Or would you change it?
I can't wait.
I think we're talking about seasonal forecasts of 30/60/90 days ahead, rather than a week or so.
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The initial forecast WAS a long range forecast, that original forecast still exists as a forecast - and that original forecast was sadly wrong. The rest of the long range forecast has been adjusted due to a change in present conditions - that's what forecasts are mainly based on!! I just don't see what is so hard to understand?!
But you cant label a forecast as 'long range', if you're changing it every 2/3 weeks because it's completely wrong. Surely i cant make it any clearer than that?
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Summer Forecast - Hot & Dry - Shades Of 1976
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by jethro
Yes this is a debate about NW's forecast, move along, enough sniping.
This is a debate about netweather's shades of 1976 summer forecast, I will continue to give my input into the subject.
Agreed... the radiators were on last night, it was really cold!
Didnt think the radiators would be on near mid June!