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Paul Lewis

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    Glastonbury 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Muddy Hell: 'Wellie Time Again At Glasto'

    Festival-goers heading to Glastonbury this week should be prepared for rain, according to forecasters.The 170,000 music fans expected at the site in Somerset from Wednesday have been advised to pack their wellies and raincoats as well as their tents.Worthy Farm, where the annual event is held, has been drenched by heavy rain in recent weeks. Some showers are expected on Wednesday, although Thursday and Friday are forecast to be sunny with temperatures around 18 or 19C.

    http://news.sky.com/...Coldplay_And_U2

    they honestly just make it up

    Glastonbury 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The excitement is well and truly building up now. My concern about the weather is becoming almost (although not entirely) irrelevant!!!

    yay man bugger the weather...a bit of rain never hurt anyone and that is all that we will get a bit! P#arty on!

    Glastonbury 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    As a Glastonbury veteran I can say that you don't need to worry about rain before the event. The clay ground dries quickly if there aren't thousands of people trampling all over it.

    2003 saw a lot of rain in the lead-up and on the Friday morning, but was mud free. In 2007 there was loads of torrential rain the day before it opened and the ground was fine until Friday lunchtime, unfortunately it rained through the night Friday and Saturday so the ground didn't recover and turned to sludge. I didn't go but 2008 and 2009 saw a bit of rain and they were fine too. Just don't camp next to a pathway and if it's still muddy on Sunday give some serious thought to leaving overnight to avoid getting stuck in a car park.

    In total agreement

    Glastonbury 2011

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Here's my update for today:

    JackOne: On the basis that there could be 3 or 4 dry days, I am going for a 5, and if it wasn't for the GFS 12Hz outlier run, it would be lower than 5 (lower numbers are better)

    GFS: Rain Monday. Over the festival there is a reasonable chance that it will be limited to a few showers early on. There is a low which tracks to the North and it needs to stay that way (or go further North).

    TWO: Rain Thursday and Saturday morning (could be early hours which would be OK as there's not that much).

    Meteox: Lots of rain in the run up. Showers over the festival.

    Meteo: Rain Monday. Showers Wednesday and Thursday.

    GFS Ensemble: Looking OK. Rain Mon/Tue, but then dry over the festival and pressure slowly rising.

    Met Office: Changeable and windy. Not a true daily update at this stage.

    ECM: Optimistically, it could be dry Thu-Sat.

    YR.NO: Rain Monday. Showers until Friday.

    Summary: Firstly, there is still no consensus and I don't really expect one until the storm has passed over today and tomorrow. Over the festival I expect it to be cloudy with a risk of showers at all times, but the serious risk of showers is on Wednesday and Thursday. The true test is how well the drainage copes with very likely rain today/tomorrow and likely rain on Mon/Tue.

    [edit] That seems a bit downbeat. I actually think that any showers on Fri-Sun will be light and possibly at night, if any at all.

    Normal caveats apply:

    1) I know a bit about weather, not a lot about weather

    2) You can't predict the weather with any accuracy for more than three days

    3) Based on Point 1, Point 2 might be incorrect

    I think this years festival will be very similar to 2008 ,bit of a soaking to start then improving throughout ,till maybe some rain sunday...

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