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Snow storm

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    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snow storm

    IMO the charts are a real downer tonight, after a promising 06Z.

    Ok so they're not that mild, but high 850's on Weds could seriously start to reduce the strength of the cold pool of air over us. This cold pool is sacred in giving us snowfall anywhere, otherwise it becomes the typical marginal rain/sleet scenario in the south, until cold air becomes established.

    The low at +108 hours really P*5sses me off. There is so much cold around over Northern Europe, and one little, pathetic low/trough thing is enough to keep it from the UK, and up the H850's to +5. ;)

    General Model Output Discussion:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Snow storm

    Wales could have the heaviest snowfall for years tomorrow-

    click here for snow chart

    In actual fact Wales may have continuous snow for the next 30 hours!!!

    Not to ramp, but you may have the heaviest snow in 20 years.

    Meanwhile, down South, the fun starts Thursday midday when the cold air creeps in, and precip. from the channel flirts with the South-

    chart

    If the ppn moves North by only 50 miles the South could be in for a surprise.

    Next Monday looks phenomenal, but I am completely disregarding it as FI- for the moment.

    ppn chart

    2m temps at 0c midday

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The 00Z is very good for those up North. You may well have a solid week of snow showers, with temperatures very rarely exceeding 0C.

    For us down South it is going to be nail biting!

    The 528 dam line flirts with the south, on numerous occasions and the day time temps are actually quite low, with maximums between 0-3C inland, but a barmy 5C on the South coast (the contrast in temperatures from 5C to 1C in the movement 20 miles inland is remarkable, and is down the fact that there is an Atlantic low tinkering with NW France, rotating mild air on Monday.

    I am not going to get my hopes up for the South, because generally in marginal situations the South rarely gets a good dumping, it normally takes cold continental air or a good northerly plunge to get temps down, otherwise most end up with rain.

    One interesting thing about this run is all the PPN in the English Channel, can any one on here identify why this is?

    18z model discussion - all aboard the snowlercoaster!

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes of course, you're right in saying that most places will see frontal edge snow.

    Amazingly the 00z wants to move the extent of the snow-all-day fromt the M4 to nearly the M62 - where the snow was forecast to be at its Northern most extent recently :drinks:

    The 0Z GFS is quite bad, the METO aern't listening to it. Which IMO is a good sign.

    In actuall fact, the BBC has snow not even turning to rain for the most.

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