weather09
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Posts posted by weather09
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Hoping for more clear nights like last night for viewing the Perseids meteor shower. Beautifully clear and starry last night, spotting a nice meteor not long after sitting outside to stargaze, with the ISS shining brightly on its flyover. Cloud cover has proved a nuisance this summer, even on days when little has been expected.
If we can't get the hot southerlies, then I don't mind a more cool, and clearer, northwesterly air stream to bring some clear skies during nighttime hours.
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Yep, can't get the proper big storms without the real heat and moisture (there are some who mistake that for getting storms at all, but obviously not saying that). Indeed, week ago Weds we saw the right kind of convective setup, which brought big storms over northern UK morning hours, followed by strong surface-based storms during afternoon period across eastern England. Not to say you can't get potent storms under cooler setups, but they don't compare to those that develop from hot 'plumes'.
Have to say though, despite some decent years (2013/14 spring to mind) recently, things still don't feel the same after 2006. It's not even so much the lack of storm occurrence as it is the lack of punch the storms that do affect here have. Storms just feel watered down. '90s and early 00s had plenty of big storms here, so much so that I would really look forward to summer almost knowing that there was guaranteed to be a least one day in the year when I'd see a proper storm. After the last several years, though, I don't expect to see much at all now. Granted, got a good storm on May 7th and, as you say, there was that early June period, but this summer, so far, has been a disappointment.
Let's hope Aug and Sep come up with the goods..
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Certainly, since 2007, summers from a convective storm perspective have been noticeably poor. Those hot, moist 'plume' setups have become more of a rarity over the last several years. Can only speak for this region, but I'd imagine folks in southern and south-eastern UK would agree. Also recall official Met Office statistics backing this up with their record of days with thunder.
But even in the more active years, such as the early part of this summer, the storm setups have generally not been from hot air coming off the continent, instead they've arisen in cool, post-front environments, with surface heating and cool air advection in the mid-levels producing instability. These setups bring weaker storms than those the develop in environments of very warm and moist low-levels.
So far, aside from the active period in the first part of June, this summer has been noticeably quiet.
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Pretty poor outlook in all if it's a proper storm setup you're looking for. Strong upper jet looks to blow over UK for the foreseeable with no amplified ridge to the east holding for any length of time. Cool air advection aloft with upper troughing, however, will likely bring some maritime storm risk days, so not entirely quiet on the convective front.
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Looking forward to the Perseids meteor shower - well the peak anyway as we're already within the period where we can see them. Have already spotted a few meteors when the night skies have been clear recently.
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Agree with BF on well scattered storms tomorrow, despite unfavourable profile aloft. Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates with weak 500mb heights, however good heating of reasonably moist surface air mass (temps low 20s; dewpoints low-mid teens) will build possibly several 100J/kg CAPE inland, with slack converging winds in advance of the occlusion together with sfc heating likely to develop a few storms during afternoon. Light winds throughout the profile, so shear will be non-existent. As mentioned, possibility of funnels with stronger updrafts given low cloud ceiling, steep low-level lapse rates, converging sfc winds and slack winds aloft.
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Where's the triple point, Roger? How would that overcome the strong cap at low-levels?
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Not one to follow a global model at this range, but ever so slight eastward revision upper/sfc pattern tomorrow morning on latest GFS, which in turn causes it to break out storms well into the W Mids during early hours/early morning.
Please, make it so..
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2 minutes ago, P-M said:
Does anyone know where the CF is that's forecast for this afternoon from the west?
Cold front(s) couple hundred or so miles W of ROI on 12z analysis. Will be pushing east across the country during tomorrow, perhaps not clearing until early hours Thurs.
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11 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:
Hopefully the Ac cas is a good sign for later though chances remain below 20% imo. Gfs looks good but not really being a hi res model it is probably too broad brushed with the Ppn. Hi res models showing that it's really a more confined event likely.
5km WRF-NMM has storms developing over West Mids during early hours...
But makes it that much more sweet when you're not really expecting storms but then get them, rather than having good confidence that'll your area will be affected. Sets you up for a letdown, if anything.
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06z Euro4 really confining storm activity to N Wales, N England (emphasis on NW England), and then going on to dominate Scotland. Further development of sfc based storms over far N/NE during afternoon before cold front pushes east.
Shame the heat is likely to go out quietly for much of the country. But I'll certainly be looking forward to reports and observations from those areas which are hit.
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Yes, as Nick says, moderate CAPE building this afternoon will go largely unutilised given strong ridge aloft. Have to wait until late this evening for heights to fall and forcing aloft to arrive from W/NW. Also noticed 06z GFS suggesting Shrops/Staffs comfortably being within risk zone tomorrow morning. Hoping might scrape here, though looks doubtful.
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Interesting the 00z Euro4 modeling further surface based storms tomorrow afternoon over N/NE England ahead of the cold front before it clears warm and moist air mass away. Before that, no real change on meso. models regarding destabilisation of very moist and unstable air mass tonight and into tomorrow morning. Arome and Euro4 developing main round of storms over Wales moving NNE/NE into N England then into southern and eastern Scotland. For me, the environment here is favourable for nearly all severe convective hazards - frequent CG lightning, intense RF, low-end large hail, and strong convective winds.
Certainly looks like an interesting period coming up over next 36 hours.
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Yes, CDF, on July 1st last year it reached 30C at 11am at Coleshill, would you believe, however patchy cloudcover having developed meant temperatures didn't continue rising until a good while after. The temp. maxed out at 33C, in the end, but had it been clear skies all the way, could have easily gotten into the mid-30s or perhaps higher.
Tomorrow, given the Euro4 is going for 33C, with low 30s everywhere else, a spot 34C or 35C degree recording somewhere in the central/southern Midlands is not out of the question. Either way, it will be hot. The minimum temperature overnight will be something to keep an eye on as well..
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48 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
I would be a little concerned that this suggests convective activity (at least in a severe capacity) will be limited in certain respects.
I guess it's probably down to the fact we're about 24 hours out still,
It should be the latter, because the models indicate conditions will be conducive for severe thunderstorms. High moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability, and good shear profile (given increase in mid-level winds) points to a severe convective risk, with the strongest storms capable of producing large hail and strong convective winds, particularly over northern UK during morning into afternoon period.
Storms will start off rooted above the boundary layer, but what's interesting is if convection can quickly root to the surface in daylight hours. In which case the severe threat only heightens further, with the added threat of tornadic activity, given backed sfc winds and slight veering aloft. Just to note, however, elevated nature of storms doesn't preclude supercell development, as deep layer shear is more relevant for such storms. Low-level shear and SRH become relevant when gauging risk of tornadoes. .
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8 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:
@weather09, did you see the link I posted? What do you think to that?
Not sure tbh, but Cambourne does appear to be moistening...
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Consistency with latest ECM - NI/Scotland midnight; Wales, N England and south and east Scotland from 06z to early afternoon.
Think much of W Mids is out of the game based on recent day's model outputs (apart from north-west of the region), which have remained solid with this outlook.
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12z Euro4 has focus of storms over N England and Scotland - first round over Scotland around 00z Weds, where shortwave trough and height falls destabilises environment - second round 03-06z from N Wales, transferring to northern parts of England during the morning hours, and then into Scotland toward midday, early afternoon. Obviously, not to be taken literally, and models do often have difficulty resolving where storms will break out with these types of setups.
Think Supacell's made a wise choice though. Nice trip up north should see him bag some supercells...
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Yep, that's done it. Thanks Paul.
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Can't seem to open more than one GFS chart at a time (usually view two side by side). No biggie, but just thought I'd make you aware.
Ah, they do open but underneath one another as opposed to two side by side...
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Also, just to clarify, I meant Estofex issuing a forecast tomorrow, not for tomorow. Although there will be a lot of CAPE tomorrow afternoon, likely to be free of storms pretty much everywhere until late Tues evening when destabilisation arrives for NI and then Scotland. Weds morning sees second round over SW/Wales/poss. W Midlands, moving NNE.
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2 hours ago, weirpig said:
Whens the ESTOFEX update come out? and do we expect a level 2 for these shores?
Would imagine Estofex will indeed go with a level 2 tomorrow for Wales, N England, and Scotland, where all factors relevant for severe convective weather will coincide. For here, best case scenario we might just scrape it lol. ECM and 00z GFS have slightly more veer to the winds aloft, but destabilisation really occurring over aforementioned regions, so.. Who knows.
Next few meso. model runs should be interesting.
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3 minutes ago, Davethedog said:
Just to check folks, it's early days yet but it looks like this will be in an environment of substantial SRH with minimal (5-10kt) shear. Is it possible for severe storms to develop in this environment, or are we more looking at strong pulse storms?
Deep layer shear environment will be supportive of multicell clusters/MCS (perhaps supercells with discrete activity) during period of interest. No reason to think otherwise. Short-lived 'pulse' storms not on the menu. Storm development not dependent on shear, however shear profile gives you an indication of the potential severity and longevity of storms that do develop.
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Met office's wording is aligned with mine...
Where do I sign?
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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by weather09
Quite high low-level moisture in tropical air mass being pulled in from far W/SW with low over the Atlantic, surging eastward over southern UK tomorrow ahead of attendant frontal system. Unfortunately, very little instability modeled- normally the case with Tm sourced air masses, though feeling warm and humid.
Thursday looks a good chance of seeing better convective activity with showers and perhaps some storms, when we see shortwave aloft transferring east over the country introducing cooler air at mid-levels, steepening lapse rates, with a more northerly-sourced air mass post-front meaning clearing skies to allow for increased insolation, which, combined with cold air aloft, looks to generate substantial instability across much of the UK.