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SnowPersonIII

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    General Winter Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Following is my detailed forecast for Thursday-Sunday based on a blend of several model runs discussed in this thread with some personal research data used mainly for timing.

    Progs indicate rapidly deepening low with vertical upper support tracking SSW across eastern England towards south central counties Friday afternoon, stalling over Channel or northern France Saturday. Forecast should take into consideration convective instability generated by this situation, and fact that 8-10 C water temps in North Sea (and 11-13 in Irish Sea and adjacent Atlantic) will interact with near 0 C air mass temps to create additional instability.

    Would expect strongest winds with this developing system to be found across west coast of Ireland where N 40-60 mph likely, also 35-50 mph funnelling through Irish Sea towards southwest England. Wind speeds over Scotland probably in the range of 30-40 mph mainly trending to 60 mph over marine areas west and 50 mph north.

    Precip likely to begin Thursday as unstable rain-hail-snow mix and trend towards all snow for most areas west of a line approx The Wash to Luton to Heathrow then jogging east to include higher ground south of London before extending back to the west along the 400 ft asl contour inland south coast. A period of heavier convective snow appears likely Thursday night into Friday across large portions of central England, Wales, northern England and southeast Scotland, with potential for 5 to 10 inches accumulation despite some mixing with rain in places. In the portions of England east of the dividing line for precip, including much of greater London, would expect a fair amount of mixed rain and wet snow trending to all rain east Anglia coast. On the current predicted track, winds not too strong for east Anglia or Kent, starting NE 20-30 mph and backing around to SSW then SE 10-20 mph.

    This situation likely to persist and slowly die out Saturday with a cool, drizzly flow setting up for Sunday. For Ireland including NI, would expect this event to be a situation of bands of wintry precip, mainly snow but with some mixing near coasts, possibly fairly heavy snowfall in parts of NI around Belfast and south, in the range of 2 to 5 inches. I picture a light coating for much of the ROI trending to a heavier fall on higher terrain such as the hills southwest of Dublin.

    Overall then, this event is likely to play out as a substantial snowfall with moderately strong winds for many areas, trending west and north to a windstorm with occasional snow and trending southeast to a cool rain-snow mix event. The main factor for snowfall, I think, will be the convective potential in the zone immediately west to northwest of the low centre as it moves across the region.

    Being in central england myself, 5 inches would be amazing! Not had more than an inch since 95/96 so yea, i would love to see that.

    With the midlands being a fairly cold place i am quite hopeful to see some snow, even if its just a few flakes itll be well worth it as ive not saw snow for a long time.

    SP3

    General Winter Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    According to the GFS temps on friday will be no higher than 2-3 and even 1c in London. What a scorcher, or the opposite should I say. I missed countryfile forcast because I thought it would be on a 11:57 or something. What could I be looking at in Ipswich? any thoughts

    Parts of the midlands could be in for an ice day if those temps whre to go by. I cant remember if GFS temps are normally higher than actual temps? Or is that metcheck... or beeb.... :D:D

    General Winter Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    But that's the 5th December - we've got a week and a half of potentially snowy weather from next Thursday to get through before then!

    Anyway, it's not a sign of zonality, in fact not anywhere near zonality as the Greenland High is still very large and in situ.

    Its actually only 10 days off and this weeks cold spell was 10 days away, perhaps more! Its possible with that Atlantic block but i wouldnt want to go into too much detail atm.

    Met Office Forecast In The Telegraph

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Caught my eye whilst in Sainsbury's

    3 OAPS WILL die a day, in winter. Coldest in decades. Recent MetOffice forecast says so.

    post-1863-1130344103_thumb.png

    BY GARY MITCHELL

    10:30 - 26 October 2005 

    Three elderly people will die every day this winter from cold-related illnesses, according to campaigners.

    Age Concern says up to 400 pensioners could die in Leicestershire from pneumonia and hypothermia between December and March.

    The charity says elderly people are more at risk from the illnesses, especially those who live alone, and because the Met Office predicts one of the coldest winters in decades, even more people than usual could die.

    Tony Donovan, executive director of Age Concern Leicestershire and Rutland, said: "The temperatures tend to change when people are least ready for it and people die from the cold every year. People have got to realise the dangers of cold weather.

    "They should wrap up, eat hot meals and make sure they have enough heating in their house. If people don't listen to that advice, they could end up very sick and in hospital. At worst, they could die."

    Nationally, Government figures show a total of 20,000 people over the age of 65 will die from the cold by March, equating to eight deaths an hour.

    The charity is blaming high heating costs, poor housing standards and low incomes.

    National Age Concern director-general Gordon Lishman said: "It's a national scandal that so many older people over 65 are put at risk every winter. More needs to be done for older people during the winter months so that they can heat their homes adequately without worrying about the cost."

    Elderly people can claim a winter fuel allowance of £200 for over 60s and £300 for over 80s.

    However, concerns have been raised in the past that this grant is used to buy other essentials, such as food and clothing. Age Concern has now called on the Government to increase the basic state pension to at least £109 a week to allow pensioners to heat their homes.

    Brendan Hobbs, 69, of Lansdowne Road, Aylestone, Leicester, said: "How we're expected to get through the winter on a pension and an allowance of £200 is beyond me.

    "I don't scrimp and save on heating. I know how important it is. It just means I can't afford to eat as well as I probably should."

    Keith Twigg, 72, of Avon Road, Braunstone Town, said elderly people should look out for each other, especially in winter.

    He said: "If you haven't seen one of your neighbours for a few days, alarm bells should start to ring and you should make inquiries to make sure they are OK."

    GP Stuart Fraser said: "It's a regular problem that we witness every year.

    "Some pensioners are reluctant to use up too much heating because they grew up in a time when such things were restricted because of the cost. This can lead to all kinds of problems with health."

    Louise Tarplee, the Leicester hospitals manager for services to the elderly, said: "There are a variety of reasons for why older people get admitted to hospital in the winter, including flu and chest problems."

    Age Concern recommends wearing several thin layers of clothing to keep warm. At least one hot meal should be eaten every day. The charity is also urging elderly people to get the flu jab as soon as possible.

    Well, it looks as though alot of newspapers have picked up on this and what age concern have said about this.

    SP3

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