SNOWYLAD
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Posts posted by SNOWYLAD
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I ask this question because I have noticed a trend over the last few years that seems to tie in with the rise of social media.
Many years ago the weather forecast was shown after the news every night, and because it was a forecast for the next 24-48 hours it was usually fairly accurate.
Fast forward a few years and we are now in a era where everyone wants information at their fingertips and the media have pages and TV to fill, couple that with our national obsession with the weather, and all of a sudden, the humble weather forecaster has a new audience to entertain, and each forecaster needs to better the other to ensure they have a suitable fan base.
A quick look through Facebook or Twitter will highlight this fact, numerous forecasters all battling for 'likes' and 'retweets' all searching for the next 'extreme' weather event in the next ten days to excite their followers and attract media attention, yet we are always told that 10 days away is in FI, yet these 'professional' forecasters are more than happy to put their names against some of the complete tripe I have seen tweeted and facebook'd this Winter.
The winter so far has been a fairly standard UK winter, a real mix of weather, yet if you were to believe these forecasters by now we should have been blown away, flooded or snowed in, or maybe all 3 if you were really unlucky!
Some of these forecasters are quite well known, and really should know better and hopefully they will soon learn not to speculate about forecasts in 7 to 10 days time, and spend more time on their forecasts for the here and now, rather than chasing the fame and bright lights that social media now offers to your once humble weather forecaster.
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In Yeovil too, need some sleep!!
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Pouring down in South Somerset since wee small hours, look like it may clear in the next hour, but dont like the look of that large lump in the channel heading towards the South coast in the next few hours.
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Quite a worrying event, more so with the current track of hitting southern most counties the hardest.
With the half term break in full swing, and lots of people heading for the caravan sites across the southern coastal districts, and if the warning did go to red, would any warnings be placed on the parks to warn or evacuate their sites? Cant imagine a static caravan in 80mph winds is the safest way to spend some family time away!
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Yes appears some lively cells in channel heading north east towards, devon & somerset
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It never came west in the first place! lol. Uncertainty was the key word though.
Fergieweather was suggesting Twitter that it may stretch as far West as Bristol, I guess that may of been previous model runs.....oh well still waiting for that elusive first storm here in Yeovil for 2013.
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What I would give for those graphics Ian just showed on his forecast for the weekend to of been over my area.That was some stormy graphics for the South East.
I'm guessing its all gone East again then!
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Distant thunder and no rain here in Yeovil, worst has passed us by.
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My temperature gauge is reading 7.6.............everyone outside now.
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Getting very wet here on the ground now, temperature starting to drop quite quickly.
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Yes snowing in South Somerset, though its making the roads and pavement wet, so could be more of an issue with ice later rather than anything snow based.
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Yes reading the BBC text forecasts seem to suggest that rain proceeded by snow and a gradual warming of temperatures is on offer this Easter.
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Quite an angry looking area of rain on the radar running down through Devon into the channel at the moment, almost looks like a squall line? Anybody nearby who can confirm if the rain is as heavy as the radar suggests?
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Yes what a lovely afternoon following this mornings snow, which followed yesterdays rain, hail & thunder! If you want variety in your weather, the UK is the place to be. 4 seasons in one weekend!
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Snowing in Yeovil too!
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Thunder with rain and hail here.
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Well it has been very cold this week, but nothing really unexpected and I don't expect anything other than cold rain with maybe some sleet thrown in next week. Next!
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Been raining/sleeting/snowing here all afternoon......its so wet that 4 things could happen :-
1) It carries on raining.
2) It clears and freezes and we all skate to work on Monday.
3) It snows so heavy a state of emergency is declared.
4) A sudden heatwave.
My money is on number 4.
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To hungover to post in more detail so here are the snapshots of the various model runs today;
GFS shows snowfall over the SW and south coast Sunday night into Monday;
The UKMO shows some snowfall along the far south coast and Channel Islands;
The NAE shows similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast. Notice the dark purples in north France, that's the real heavy snow that looks like missing us now. Could have been truly something if that hit us;
The GEM similiar to the GFS in that it pushes it that bit further north;
The ECM has it similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast, although perhaps something a little heavier nudging into the extreme south coast;
So overall nothing much as really changed from my post yesterday. The American models more bullish than the Euro's over how far north the system gets. As per yesterday however, you have to favour the Euro's currently with their higher resolution, so only the far south looks like seeing snowfall still currently, something more notable perhaps for the Channel Islands.
I agree with Ian and the poster above, as things stand I give it a 80% - 90% chance of this being a non event, with a 10% - 20% chance of it changing and becoming an event for us.
Current BBC forecasts back you up 100%, looks good for the Channel Islands and Northern France, but nothing more than a few flurries for the very south....ho hum.
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BBC Weather at 20:00 is showing it as an out to sea event!
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Funny really, about 2 weeks ago I posted in here commenting on the fact that this current cold spell was going to be dull and boring. Had some comments telling me it was going to be anything but that, well 2 weeks of dross later.......
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Oh god could this cold spell be more boring if it tried! Come on folks were getting excited over 'grains'!!!!!! At least its getting milder as we head towards March.
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Didn't realise they still had journalists at the BBC!
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It would have to have been an epic easterly for us to get anything down this way at this time of the year.
I would be more annoyed if I was in the east of England right now, it would certainly delivered there if it hadn't been pushed south.
Dry suites me, as long as the sun is shining like today.
Going out into the garden now to do some tidying up ready for the growing season to start.
Yes lovely day today, but don't expect much sunshine once the cold grey murk moves in on Tues/Wed!
South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat
in Regional
Posted · Edited by SNOWYLAD
Still waiting first winter snow in South Somerset, not hopeful either!