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SNOWYLAD

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Posts posted by SNOWYLAD

  1. I ask this question because I have noticed a trend over the last few years that seems to tie in with the rise of social media.

     

    Many years ago the weather forecast was shown after the news every night, and because it was a forecast for the next 24-48 hours it was usually fairly accurate. 

     

    Fast forward a few years and we are now in a era where everyone wants information at their fingertips and the media have pages and TV to fill, couple that with our national obsession with the weather, and all of a sudden, the humble weather forecaster has a new audience to entertain, and each forecaster needs to better the other to ensure they have a suitable fan base.

     

    A quick look through Facebook or Twitter will highlight this fact, numerous forecasters all battling for 'likes' and 'retweets' all searching for the next 'extreme' weather event in the next ten days to excite their followers and attract media attention, yet we are always told that 10 days away is in FI, yet these 'professional' forecasters are more than happy to put their names against some of the complete tripe I have seen tweeted and facebook'd this Winter.

     

    The winter so far has been a fairly standard UK winter, a real mix of weather, yet if you were to believe these forecasters by now we should have been blown away, flooded or snowed in, or maybe all 3 if you were really unlucky! 

     

    Some of these forecasters are quite well known, and really should know better and hopefully they will soon learn not to speculate about forecasts in 7 to 10 days time, and spend more time on their forecasts for the here and now,  rather than chasing the fame and bright lights that social media now offers to your once humble weather forecaster.

  2. Quite a worrying event, more so with the current track of hitting southern most counties the hardest.

     

    With the half term break in full swing, and lots of people heading for the caravan sites across the southern coastal districts, and if the warning did go to red, would any warnings be placed on the parks to warn or evacuate their sites?   Cant imagine a static caravan in 80mph winds is the safest way to spend some family time away!

  3. To hungover to post in more detail so here are the snapshots of the various model runs today;

    GFS shows snowfall over the SW and south coast Sunday night into Monday;

    post-12721-0-15784700-1362898532_thumb.jpost-12721-0-88579300-1362898527_thumb.jpost-12721-0-80071700-1362898521_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-16103700-1362898512_thumb.jpost-12721-0-28549200-1362898541_thumb.jpost-12721-0-22725300-1362898556_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-39173700-1362898562_thumb.jpost-12721-0-57358100-1362898560_thumb.jpost-12721-0-23011300-1362898575_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-90191500-1362898640_thumb.jpost-12721-0-27891100-1362898648_thumb.jpost-12721-0-25997700-1362898665_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-43046700-1362898677_thumb.jpost-12721-0-10018000-1362898677_thumb.jpost-12721-0-31044800-1362898680_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-91839000-1362898685_thumb.jpost-12721-0-90001600-1362898691_thumb.j

    The UKMO shows some snowfall along the far south coast and Channel Islands;

    post-12721-0-54660500-1362898855_thumb.jpost-12721-0-81356400-1362898861_thumb.jpost-12721-0-27666700-1362898870_thumb.j

    The NAE shows similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast. Notice the dark purples in north France, that's the real heavy snow that looks like missing us now. Could have been truly something if that hit us;

    post-12721-0-35701300-1362899043_thumb.jpost-12721-0-70978900-1362899048_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-79865300-1362899055_thumb.jpost-12721-0-48422000-1362899063_thumb.j

    The GEM similiar to the GFS in that it pushes it that bit further north;

    post-12721-0-79175600-1362899192_thumb.jpost-12721-0-08007200-1362899207_thumb.jpost-12721-0-22469800-1362899205_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-42858100-1362899211_thumb.jpost-12721-0-08369500-1362899226_thumb.j

    The ECM has it similiar to the UKMO, with light snow along the south coast, although perhaps something a little heavier nudging into the extreme south coast;

    post-12721-0-28465900-1362899370_thumb.jpost-12721-0-18732600-1362899384_thumb.jpost-12721-0-45692000-1362899379_thumb.j

    post-12721-0-05420900-1362899401_thumb.jpost-12721-0-78933200-1362899409_thumb.jpost-12721-0-01628500-1362899414_thumb.j

    So overall nothing much as really changed from my post yesterday. The American models more bullish than the Euro's over how far north the system gets. As per yesterday however, you have to favour the Euro's currently with their higher resolution, so only the far south looks like seeing snowfall still currently, something more notable perhaps for the Channel Islands.

    I agree with Ian and the poster above, as things stand I give it a 80% - 90% chance of this being a non event, with a 10% - 20% chance of it changing and becoming an event for us.

    Current BBC forecasts back you up 100%, looks good for the Channel Islands and Northern France, but nothing more than a few flurries for the very south....ho hum.

  4. It would have to have been an epic easterly for us to get anything down this way at this time of the year.

    I would be more annoyed if I was in the east of England right now, it would certainly delivered there if it hadn't been pushed south.

    Dry suites me, as long as the sun is shining like today.

    Going out into the garden now to do some tidying up ready for the growing season to start.

    Yes lovely day today, but don't expect much sunshine once the cold grey murk moves in on Tues/Wed!

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