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iceicebaby

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    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by iceicebaby

    Statistics from the past are nice, but you can only use it to look into the past, it doesnt always really give you an objective view. Past results do not offer any future guarantees. If ya had a thousand years of data, it would be a different story.

    Just keep in mind what Albert Einstein said: Imagination is more important than knowledge.

    And especially this is one to give a thought: Logic will get you from A to B. Imagination will take you everywhere.

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Any thoughts on these questions?

    I know Chio mentioned that the troposferical vortex above Canada is getting disconnected from the stratosferical one but the amount of energie this is moving across the atlantic currently appears to me as a strong troposferical polar Vortex. The 500 Hpa models show that HP intermittently tries to move north but is continously "ironed" away in the coming days/weeks.

    I am still very much trying to understand whether and how this troposferical condition relates to previous stratosferical events.

    My question about the models is related to that: maybe they dont model/calculate those coupling processes at all... Then I know what the value of model-predictions is.

    Lol, just look at physics, for example, the Young-Laplace equation..if theres only one variable with an error..the value is probably basicly 0

    Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by iceicebaby

    So, to be sure if i understand you correctly, the warming of the stratosferical Canadian vortex at 10 hpa creates the un-coupling of the troposferical one?

    It still leaves me with the question why the movements of the stratosferical vortex and the troposferical movements seem to be happening simultaneously.

    Gravity waves and maybe some rayleigh-taylor instability, to be honest, it is not really somethin uncommon in hydrodynamics.

    Also look at Richtmyer–Meshkov instability. When i wrote this down i started thinkin....this Richtmyer-Meshkov instability is probably of use to predict the behavior of energy releases.

    • Like 2

    Technical Teleconnective Papers

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I've got to write three extended essays for my Geography degree...and I can write about pretty much anything. One of my modules was on seasonal prediction so I'm going to attempt something along the lines of "Will improved knowledge of stratosphere-troposphere interactions increase the skill of seasonal forecasts for UK winters?". I've really enjoyed following the stratosphere thread this winter (many thanks to chionomaniac & GP) so I thought I'd do something that's topical and that I'm interested in!

    I've just come across a very recent paper published online on 13 January 2013 which may be of interest.

    http://www.nature.co...l/ngeo1698.html

    "Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings

    Advances in seasonal forecasting have brought widespread socio-economic benefits. However, seasonal forecast skill in the extratropics is relatively modest1, prompting the seasonal forecasting community to search for additional sources of predictability2, 3. For over a decade it has been suggested that knowledge of the state of the stratosphere can act as a source of enhanced seasonal predictability; long-lived circulation anomalies in the lower stratosphere that follow stratospheric sudden warmings are associated with circulation anomalies in the troposphere that can last up to two months4, 5. Here, we show by performing retrospective ensemble model forecasts that such enhanced predictability can be realized in a dynamical seasonal forecast system with a good representation of the stratosphere. When initialized at the onset date of stratospheric sudden warmings, the model forecasts faithfully reproduce the observed mean tropospheric conditions in the months following the stratospheric sudden warmings. Compared with an equivalent set of forecasts that are not initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings, we document enhanced forecast skill for atmospheric circulation patterns, surface temperatures over northern Russia and eastern Canada and North Atlantic precipitation. We suggest that seasonal forecast systems initialized during stratospheric sudden warmings are likely to yield significantly greater forecast skill in some regions."

    Already seen it around here i think. Anyhow, interesting stuff
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