JAWebb
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Posts posted by JAWebb
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Go to http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ and pressure tab
Keep an eye as the circulation sinks SE drawing in air from the SE
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When the circulation off the coast of Wales drops SE, as modelled, the winds will back more SE'ly drawing in lower DP's. That is our chance.
Go to
and select the Pressure tab
Patience
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Front had arrived in Fleet, Hants. Pure rain DP +1
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Eased off a bit now in Fleet NE Hants. Had around 4-5 cm and it has settled on everything including main roads. Periods of heavier snow and a stiff wind means it has plastered Easterley facing road signs too.
Eyes now on the radar with that heavier stuff spinning up from the channel heading in this direction.
PS Never sure whether I should post in this thread or the Central England one. However as I am a Man of Kent I generally prefer this one!
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-10 ? Not tonight. Need clear skies for that. Maybe scrape -4/5 at Biggin.
Same tomorrow night for sure with the circulation spewing more cloud.
Thurs night looks more promising for lower overnight temps.
-10 ? Not tonight. Need clear skies for that. Maybe scrape -4/5 at Biggin.
Same tomorrow night for sure with the circulation spewing more cloud.
Thurs night looks more promising for lower overnight temps.
I'll take this back. Gone 0/8 gin clear here now and already at -4
#murrknowsbest
Prob not a -10 though
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remember folks the steepest temp drop of the day is 5 until around 10.
I think, assuming skies keep clear we will be at minus 4 by 10pm and much much lower by dawn.
Tonights the night for a minus 10.
S
-10 ? Not tonight. Need clear skies for that. Maybe scrape -4/5 at Biggin.
Same tomorrow night for sure with the circulation spewing more cloud.
Thurs night looks more promising for lower overnight temps.
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18z GFS was way out with temps for 00:00
Predicted
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfsmeur.html
Actual
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Checking in from Fleet, 10-12 cm. light snow has turned moderate in last 10 mins
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Regarding this post:
Scenario 1 see's the Atlantic barrel straight into the UK after a little short lived fight from the block , not sure how long the route back to cold would be there after.
Scenario 2 see's the Atlantic run over the top of the block, I think if this happened it would be a long route back to cold.
Scenario 3 see's the undercut, and the cold weather is extended with snow opportunities for all.
All three totally plausible. Views as follows:
1. Atlantic will not barrel through this block and we are unlikely to see anything zonal powering the block away anytime before Monday. The evident Atlantic incursion is being pushed back day by day
2. Looking at all models as a mean this option has no evidence at present
3. Has backing from UKMO, ECM and GFS at varying degrees in the short term
At face value looks like there will be some sort of attempt at an Atlantic surge on Friday and Sat. Any fronts that do make it into the SW in the timeframe would deliver snow. How far those fronts can push East and cause disruption Into the spine of the country is anyone's guess.
No point in getting hooked on any model output post + 96 at the moment unfortunately.
Fascinating few days ahead.
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Quickie for the pro's here.
PPN looks to arrive around midnight Tues/Weds according to GFS (Which we know is progressive)
But with uppers around -3/-4, air temps of 0-2c and dp's around -1 (generally) is this favourable for snow?
I'm thinking hell yeah and game on IF the GFS materialises (Unlikely)
Try using this guide from JH and see what you think... there are a couple more factors you need to look at but you are on the right lines.
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15cms and rising in Fleet. We are lucky enough to be slap bang on the conveyor coming N. Not seen snow like this in the Uk since Jan 87 when I was living in N Kent.
A real nowcast situ. Anyone fretting will I or wont I look at the radar www.raintoday.co.uk...........or take a spin down the M3 services (with chains, shovel, blanket and food)
Happy Days
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Steve M- nice one for posting such a detailed anaysis.
A first winter post from me now as we enter the next 96h:
Suffolk, London, Essex, Kent, Surrey , Sussex ; snow falling after about 15:00 tomorrow. Heaviest falls aligned with the stearing winds so check out xcweather and rainfall today (now with free preipitype) for up to the minute info.
Favoured spot for most snow > Snowchasing? I'd go to Kent, somewhere between Faversham and Ashford on the Downs.........Challock maybe.....at least 8" come Sat morning and i reckon this is conservative. Wouldn't rule out the odd bang of Thunder between Fri0000 and Sat1800 given the SST's assoc with the most convective showers.
Further than that.....less precip Sunday but cold and Sunny. A good day for sledging...top spot...,Trosley country Park, Nr Vigo village has a black run- did it in 87. I remember in 87 snowing from a seemless blue sky, you may see this this weekend......TWO sledging meet? Whos's IN?
Further than that and about McKelwee's comment RE Monday ............no comments till Sat 12z at least.
Enjoy what comes.
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Snow has just been confirmed at junction 10 of the M1!!! :o
Elevation there is 163M ASL. Keep the reports coming in people...
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Looking at xcweather temps/Dew are around 4/3 in Kent. However Biggin is returning 1/0 so I'd be interested to hear reports from there. Where's Charlton North Downs....?
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Moderate rain here in Ewell. I'm at 50m ASL but I'd be interested to hear from anyone up on the downs as to whats falling up there.
As I say, just rain here, and it's only 0.6 deg. However when I look under the light, and this is difficult to describe, but by the way it is falling, definately seems like its melted snow.
It's a wierd sensation, although understandable given the synoptics, that its raining even though we have 14cm level snow still in the garden. I just went out and measured it while I was looking up at the light !
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Hi.Newbie here. I've been following the posts for the last couple of days. I'm near Great Yarmouth.Overnight snow has virtually disappeared. Very small amount of rain/sleet at the moment. I was intending to travel down to the Chichester area today. Is it worth me bothering?
Route would be A12 to Brentwood,M25 to Dartford Crossing,M23 South to pick up the A27 to Chichester. Cheers.
Hi Welcome
Thats an absolute no no. I wouldn't even consider it!
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No, he isn't very pleased about the amount of snow to be honest, doesn't much like the white stuff - just said he had about a foot of snow which looks in the right ballpark from his photo.
Can vouch for that. I am a mile from Epsom and depths are easily a foot deep.
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Any of you lucky bunch got over 15cm yet?
Over 15cm pah! Try over 30cm..
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Here are the latest pics. That Garden table has a flat surface...snow still falling
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Gone over the 12" mark here in Ewell. Been under that streamer all night. Pics below were taken 90mins ago and it been snowing since and is still coming down now. Will go out and record depths later before the French lot arrives.
http://i306.photobucket.com/albums/nn261/j...os/DSCF0210.jpg
http://i306.photobucket.com/albums/nn261/j...os/DSCF0212.jpg
http://i306.photobucket.com/albums/nn261/j...os/DSCF0213.jpg
http://i306.photobucket.com/albums/nn261/j...os/DSCF0214.jpg
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Hi -- yes please- After the frontal event I will go for 12-15 inches up there-
Anyway- ive been away to investigate the radar- MUCH MUCh better returns coming back now & the Estuary continues to get even busier-
The track vector for the showers now is Vectored between 265 & 269 degrees west-
Meaning the whole of the thames Estuary is going to get peppered .....
Not long now & We will be off to the races again in Bexleyheath.........
Im still bowled over by some of the temperature reports-....... -4.7c in Maidstone!!!!
S
Echo that..Not sure where you saw the -4.7 but according to xcweather Headcorn reporting -2, Gatwick -3, Biggin Hill -4. Have a look at the surface winds on xcweather...stearing down the Thames and a left turn due S London...spot on for me :lol:
Hands up if you are having an all nighter then ?
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WHOOO Im so HAPPY. (Sorry for shouting)! 4cm here and -2.5c :lol:
Thats good to know as I am recording -2.6. We are in a prime location for overnight and into tomorrow
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[note my forecast sweet spot was Banstead Downs- although im not sure how many people picked this up the other day- this includes the secondary Wave-)
Steve-
Noted yiour comments yesterday. I'm a 6min drine from Banstead downs. More then happy to go up there for a measurement tommorrow night providing the roads are passable. It's about 170M up there. I'm only at 50m asl and doing alright so far
Not that we need to worry about heights anyway :lol: -
....checking in from Ewell Nr Epsom in N Surrey. Snow has been getting steadily heavier throughout the day and is now coming down thick and fast. 3-4 cm currently and settling on ALL surfaces from the word go. Eyebrow raising forecast on N24 - talking about 6in overnight, N Kent, Surrey, London, Hants - happy to be in a prime location. This is proper 80's snow like you get in the Alps. Hoping the trains are buggered in the AM then I can do an all day snow watch LOL! Keep the reports coming in guys.
Not that we need to worry about heights anyway :lol:
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th June 2013 onwards
in Regional
Posted
I wouldn't get too excited about seeing imports from France tonight feom the MCS. It's all going into BeNeLux. May skirt the channel so If you go and stand on the end of Deal pier and look SE you may see some lightning together with the odd splodge of rain on your head.
Tomorrow looks a bit mucky to be honest.