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The main event is more likely to occur between 11:00am and 1:00pm - here is the current UKMO wind gust chart for midday: 130km/h = 81mph gusts. You’ll know when it gets this wild. Will not necessarily be so bad in a sheltered valley, though.

Saundersfoot and Tenby webcams…. Webcams - Stay Pembrokeshire STAY-PEMBROKESHIRE.CO.UK …..both relatively sheltered from the west.

Just been outside to check anything loose I might have missed. The peak of the storm is not due here for another four hours at least but already the wind sounds like I’m living next to a motorway - a constant roar through nearby trees - but at least the rain has stopped. There are quite a few large, elderly and diseased ash trees in this area and I don’t think all of them will still be standing tonight….. Every now and again I’m getting an extra strong gust but nothing like what is predicted for later.

Yes….a poor nights sleep, not because of the noise of any wind but nervous anticipation of what today could bring. The wind and rain was not an issue last night, but this morning it’s much livelier and beginning to bend the tree branches around here. Red warning for the South East definitely a wise move by MetO even if it is a little late and there are bound to be images of damaged roofs around the capital on the news tonight. I still can’t really predict how bad it will be here as the apps and models don’t all agree but I have four apps forecasting maximum gusts above 85mph and one saying 67mph will be the limit. 67mph gusts do not scare me, but widespread 87mph gusts over the course of an hour or two could be an issue for my overhead power supply which could be affected by falling trees. I don’t want a power cut! Even so, it looks likely to be worse along the coast so my prayers go out to everyone - stay home if you can and don’t take any unnecessary risks in this weather.

I say I could survive - I can cook porridge and boil an egg……and I can open a tin of beans too! Sorted!

Four of the weather apps I use are promising gusts at or above 80mph tomorrow morning for my location, with the fifth one maxing out at 67mph. I’m not sure what damage could be expected from one or two hours of 80mph+ gusts but I’m sure we’ll have trees and branches down across roads. It’s still possible for the wind strength to be higher or lower than predicted so I’m keeping my fingers crossed it doesn’t get any worse. I really hope we don’t get a long term power cut - it really can be disruptive - but we could survive with a log burner and the bottled gas hob. Then there’s the roof……it’s going to be touch and go.

The red weather issued by the MetO is for the entire Severn Estuary coastline from Llanelli right round to the tip of Cornwall. This includes Swansea, Port Talbot, Bridgend, Cardiff, Newport and Chepstow. So they’re not talking it down……

The WeatherProHD app this morning is now showing sustained wind speeds of 46mph and maximum gusts of 70mph for Aberporth tomorrow morning (yesterday: 55mph sustained, 89mph gusts), so a definite reduction in severity for this part of the Ceredigion coast overnight. These are not uncommon statistics for Aberporth and although still stormy, not really to be considered exceptional. I don’t know which model they base their predictions on, though.

The WeatherProHD app this morning is now showing sustained wind speeds of 46mph and maximum gusts of 70mph for Aberporth tomorrow morning, so a definite reduction in severity for this part of the Ceredigion coast overnight. These are not uncommon statistics for Aberporth and although still stormy, not really to be considered exceptional. I don’t know which model they base their predictions on, though.

That’s a very interesting to see. I wonder what maximum wind speeds the turbines are designed to resist? Must be over 100mph at least, I suppose?

ICON-Eu 12z currently has this image for accumulated maximum gusts over the UK during the next 72 hours. Unless my eyes are deceiving me there appear to be several places where 100mph+ gusts could occur inland. Anyway, it’s going to be windy everywhere…..

The WeatherProHD app is currently showing sustained wind speeds of 55mph and gusts at 89mph for Aberporth (Ceredigion coast), sometime between 9:00am and midday Friday. I have never seen this app show gusts above 80mph for Wales before (although this doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened, of course….)

Two things I remember most about the 1987 storm - the extremely loud howl eerily whining around the house and roof sounding like a jet fighter testing its engines, and the flashes of light across the whole horizon as falling trees took down power lines. I can only hope that Eunice does not strengthen to that level because the damage was awful. Not likely to see flashes of light during the day, on Friday, of course.

This chart from the UKMO shows predicted peak gusts at midday Friday: So thats 100mph possibly for the Bristol Channel, south coast of Wales, and North coast of Devon with 90mph gusts widespread inland, and almost everywhere in the south to see 75mph gusts. There could be a lot of disruption from this unless we see some change of direction or a downgrade in the strength of the winds. Looking through the charts, the UKMO seems exceptionally pessimistic and other models don’t see it being quite so violent, but nobody should underestimate the potential impact. We may have to wait until as late as tomorrow evening before we can be really certain about the likely final track and strength of Storm Eunice.

The latest chart from the UKMO for Friday morning is quite sobering. If their prediction is correct then the west coast of Wales could see widespread gusts of 90mph and even 100mph is shown affecting parts of Pembrokeshire and the south coast …. It is worth noting that other models predict the course and strength of Storm Eunice differently and not all are so pessimistic but it’s best to keep watching up to Thursday evening to get the most accurate indications. It’s also probably a good idea not to plan any unnecessary travel in South Wales on Friday.

Nature always balances herself out - I guess we’re shortly going to be paying for a generally settled and, dare I say it, dry January. This week may not even be the last one where we see stormy weather before the end of February.

Well, it depends on where you are…. From my perspective, the UKMO has downgraded overnight. These two images both show maximum predicted gusts for 9:00am Friday, first one from last night, second one from this mornings run….. The second chart also shows a definite shift south, so both statements could be said to be true. These predictions are bound to change several more times before Friday but I’m hoping for more ‘downgrades’ so I can keep my roof on…..

I like the sound of Norman - got any pictures? In the meantime, better tie everything loose down before Friday morning looking at some of the models. This is from the UKMO which doesn’t usually overdo it…. ….150km/hr gusts is around 90mph and that would be very damaging for some if it happens. I’ve got a new roof planned for the summer but the old one might not last that long…..

There’s been starling roosts reported in Pembrokeshire for several years, and another famous one at Aberystwyth pier. The huge flocks which gather are thought to be for their protection from predators which are confused by the sheer numbers but I saw a film of an owl picking off starlings under Aberystwyth pier one by one so it doesn’t look like a brilliant strategy to me! Many of them migrate to Northern Europe and Scandinavia in the spring so I don’t expect to see them for much longer. It’s been an amazing sight this year, but despite their apparent success they are sadly another of our common birds in decline.

This weekend has been a write-off so far with a strong, gusty wind and constant rain. Even heavier rain this morning and the wind is due to increase through the morning but it’s not the worst we’ve had so no damage expected! I don’t expect to do anything useful outside today. One thing to mention is that we’ve had huge numbers of starlings flying across the valley every morning for the last few weeks. Depending on the weather they sometimes fly very low just across the rooftops, or higher in huge flocks right across the sky. Must be tens of thousands of them roosting about five miles away. Tried to film it but my internet speed is so poor I can’t upload it…..

The cool, calm and mostly dry January is over and looks to be followed by an unsettled, mostly windy and less dry early February. A breezy start to the day here with sun breaking though the fast moving clouds but it still feels pretty cold out there. No snow in the immediate forecast but it can’t be ruled out for quite a while yet. For the time being we are stuck with weather from the Atlantic which means cloudy and windy with some rain ahead. However, it’s nice to see the daffs beginning to show themselves!

Yes….it’s very dull and dreary just now and quite cold with it, but I’ll definitely take this over constant gales and non-stop rain every time. Looks like no snow in the foreseeable but we’ve got all of February and March still to go and the weather can turn in a matter of days so winter 2022 is not over until it’s over….

Had to laugh yesterday - couldn’t see out of the garden because of thick fog in our part of the Preselis but had to go to Fishguard and just up the road the fog cleared. All the way to Fishguard was bathed in quite warm, wall to wall sunshine and looking absolutely lovely. Then back home and just at the top of our lane the fog was still there and hung around all evening. It’s gone this morning, though, although there has been a sharp frost overnight. I quite like this weather because it’s possible to work outside without getting wet!

If we can’t have snow, I pick this weather instead. NO RAIN in the forecast here for the next week, maybe even ten days! Sunny and dry - lovely! Wasn’t it like this last January for a while ? This could all change, of course and I’m not putting any bets on…..