Aphelion369
-
Posts
19 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Aphelion369
-
-
9 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:
No one is expecting temperatures of 35°C every summer, I’ve not seen any comments alluding to this. You can try to polish a turd, but it remains a turd, for much of the south of the country. Not so further north.
I wasn’t referring to comments on this thread specifically, where people tend to be more educated about climate anyway, but more broadly to expectations from the general public as can be seen from the reactions in both the traditional and social media. As I said, after the last few summers with multiple instances of temps over 35C plus well above average sunshine amounts in the southeast in particular, it isn’t surprising that this has raised expectations for what British summers “ought to be” when a bit of historical context/ long term averages, tells us otherwise.
-
3
-
-
Perceptions have obviously been skewed and distorted by the last few summers, particularly here in London and the Southeast, to the point that some people have almost come to expect +35C temperatures every year. The average annual max at Heathrow, for example, for the last five summers is around 35.5C! So when these temps don’t materialise for just one summer, bitter disappointment naturally ensues and all sense of proportion goes out of the window. Admittedly, rainfall amounts have indeed been a bit high and sunshine on the low side, which no doubt adds to the general impression of gloominess.
-
I’m not sure I find this convincing, tbh:
Quote“Heathrow - with its large black asphalt runways and airport buildings - will naturally absorb more heat.
But London is very built-up, meaning surrounding areas should also be affected in a similar way.
This can be shown by comparing the average monthly temperature of Heathrow to nearby Kew, eight miles away.“
Surely if UHI is the key factor, they should have compared Heathrow with St James’s Park, right at the heart of London, and not another suburban station like Kew Gardens.
Also, my understanding is that the main concern about Heathrow is not so much the average monthly means but rather maximum temperatures in the summer, particularly during heatwaves such as in the recent summers, where Heathrow appears to “overperform” compared to other nearby stations. But the article evades this but instead focuses on average monthly means to prove an (all too easy) point that Heathrow and Kew indeed have very similar means year round.
Even during this summer (2021), despite the absence of extreme heat so far, Heathrow has regularly and consistently recorded higher maxes than either SJP and Northolt, and if the rainfall stats are to be believed, has also mysteriously largely escaped the downpours which have plagued much of the southeast.
-
9.3c for me please
-
1
-
-
My first spot on guess...yey! Not bad for a newbie - I didn't know about the post no. ranking, so must earlier next time!
-
-
-
Probably because of the very low humidity?Just returned from the most wonderfull holiday in Ovecik in Turkey had 3 consecutive days of 42oc wonderfull.Strange thing it did not feel that hot. C.S
-
16.1 please!
-
I agree, it is entirely possible 40C or more has already been reached during the historical period, before reliable thermometers had been invented. It also depends on how far you're prepared to back into the past. Prior to the last ice age, what is now "Britain" actually had a tropical climate during several geological periods.I reckon we already have several times since the end of the ice age, just not since reliable measurements began in the late 19th century.
-
-
A VEI of 6 with a reduction of 1.2C over at least 5 years is certainly not "overhyped." AGW temperature projections or "scenarios" are over many decades, not 5 years. And if there is/was hype about Krakatoa, it's not entirely underserved. And I would say that an eruptive column of 80,000 ft and 4 cubic miles of ejected matter is anything but "modest".Krakatoa remains the single biggest overhyped weather "cause" in the history of climatology, even AGW rates higher in my books than Krakatoa. Okay, there was a moderate dust veil and possibly a global downturn enhanced by 1 C deg for parts of 1884-86.
We understand that you've got something against Krakatoa, but no one's saying that here, and I never mentioned March 1883 in my post.Item number one that particularly gets my goat is when people point to how cold it was in 1883. Krakatoa erupted in late August, so the record cold in March 1883 must have had some other source (it was record cold in both Europe and North America too).
Says who? Where's your evidence for this? What are these "analogues"?Based on other analogues, the plausible signal from Krakatoa must have been largely extinguished well before 1888
So volcanic eruptions are only "impressive" if they affect North American winters, otherwise they're just "overhyped"?I will give Krakatoa a bit of credit for exceptional cold in North America in winter 1884-85. That was its biggest achievement, in fact the winter of 1883-84 wasn't really that cold especially compared to the previous one.Then as to Pinatubo, don't even get me started, that was a fluke to have cold weather in 1992 following Pinatubo's rather modest dust veil event. If anything, maybe people should be researching the opposite cause and effect, how something jointly produces stress on earth's crust and cold weather. Ya know, like certain height anomalies in the mid-latitudes and subtropics maybe?
-
Interesting run of chilly springs in the 1880s and early 1890s...a post-Krakatoa effect, maybe? Just imagine if we had a volcanic eruption on that scale, or even on Pinatubo's scale, which caused temporarly cooling in the early to mid 1990s (which was otherwise a very warm decade).Here's that list again but only those since 1772Coldest springs on record1837: 5.61782: 6.11799: 6.11887: 6.31855: 6.41879: 6.41891: 6.51812: 6.61845: 6.71888: 6.71816: 6.81830: 6.91883: 6.91962: 6.9
-
-
Quite remarkable that just goes to show how poor its been over the past 7 months
Or how good it's been for cold-weather fans.
-
Minmium today is 3.8C, while maxima were around 8C so an increase to 4.2C is likely tomorrow
After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at
4.5C to the 12th (8.0)
4.7C to the 13th (7.5)
5.3C to the 14th (12.9)
5.8C to the 15th (12.8]
6.0C to the 16th (9.6)
6.2C to the 17th (8.5)
6.4C to the 18th (10.0)
A big rise today upto 5.4c to the 14th
GFS 06z projection is 6.6 to the 23rd.
We actually get close to that in the next couple of days, however some colder nights will stop the upward tredectory towards the weekend
Hi,
I'm fairly new to this forum. I wanted to find out where you get these GFS data from? Which website? Thanks.
-
Looking at the March CET competition I don't think anyone had much of an idea as to how the month would pan out, cannot remember when nobody got remotely close to what the final figure is likely to be in any previous month
I agree. I think few people expected "winter" to drag on to the beginning of April!
-
Summer 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
What do mean “how can you be surprised”?
I actually said “I’m NOT surprised”....i.e that people are reacting this way, given the extreme heatwaves of the last few years, so what I’m not sure who, or what exactly you’re trying to contradict with these tables from this summer.
Oh, if you think that’s a good example of a rubbish summer, try having a look at the charts for June 1972, the Julys of 1974, 1977, 1980, 1988 and even 1993 amongst many others, for some perspective.