[Methane Gas And Climate Change]

GW,

 

Had a look into the most recent work on this. There are two different scenarios to consider: first, the steady, increasing, semi-permanent and persistent increase of CH4 in the atmosphere. Under this scenario, there would be an increasing contribution to warming on certain timescales, but the amount is still relatively lower than the contribution of CO2. 

 

The other scenario, which is also considered in the AR5, is the 'methane burst' situation. The suggestion is that, under some circumstances, it might be possible that an exceptionally large amount of methane is emitted into the atmosphere over a short period (decadal scale). In this event, the whole system would see a sudden increase in temperatures at an almost unimaginable speed. And then there would be the longer term feedbacks resulting from this.

 

Scenario one is identifiably and measurably in progress and has been for some time now. There's no reason to believe it will slow down - on the contrary, it is most likely to continue increasing for centuries yet.

 

Scenario two is harder to evaluate, since it would represent a 'chaotic' (ie, non-standard) event. Current assessments swing from 'it's not determinable' to 'it's not likely'. Can't see anything which says 'it's not possible'.

 

Potential prime candidate for a causal agent of a methane burst is most likely either Fracking in the Gulf of Mexico, or subsea-sub-bottom exploration/activity in parts of the Arctic.

 

I don't think it's appropriate to consider an evaluation of this potential risk as 'alarmist'. It's just common sense to try to understand it and place it in context. If you stand in the middle of an empty road, there is a risk that a truck will run you down. The longer you stand there, the more the cumulative risk increases. Getting out of the road at some point isn't 'alarmist', it's common sense.

 

With the different mechanisms for Methane release like slumping or earthquakes having the ability to release methane quickly, would it be possible for the 50 gt methane release to take place overnight or would an extremely unlikely event have to take place for that to happen?

[Arctic Ice Discussion 2013-14: the refreeze...]

This Autumn we haven't seen so far any up warming in the high Artic. Currently around 248k (-25c) . It will be interesting to see whether we follow 2012 and the temperatures start to rise above the long term average shortly, as they have in recent years..

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Glad to see Artic Ice Volume updated at last.

 

September ice volume was about 1600 km³  larger than in September of 2012 and within 500 km³ of the 2010 September ice volume. I cant see any quick recovery in volume , 2007 doesn't look obtainable but we will see.

 

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

 

Would the increase in transport of the ice down into the Fram not affect this though?

 

The map below illustrates this.

 

[Methane Gas And Climate Change]

Thought I would bring up an Arctic News article which describes, what they describe, the possible beginnings of Runaway Global Warming with high levels of Methane over the Laptev Sea and East Arctic Shelf. 

 

 

We could be watching the beginnings of this. If the red on the 1750 ppb and the yellow on the 1950 ppb setting on the methanetracker.org keeps spreading and intensifies, we are watching it happen. I hope this is an anomaly and these areas return to little or no activity.

 

 

http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2013/10/epic-methane-releases-from-east-siberian-arctic-shelf.html#comment-form

 

If I am right we had levels similar to these Methane levels last year over that location, but I could be wrong on that. The best evidence I have for this comes from a past article from Arctic News: http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2012/12/high-methane-levels-persist-in-december-2012.html

 

 

 

Here is what is on Methane Tracker for October 24th 2013. 

 

[September 2013 Sunrise, Arklow, Ireland]

Set of photos of a particular sunrise I took last month. 

 

Colors as the sun rises

 

Brighter on the other side

 

 

Solitary boat amongst the windmills

 

Charred Figure

 

 

 

[Methane , Noctilucents and Comet Ison]

T.B.H. I'd just like a good showing from the comet but some of the NASA info had the sceptic in me wanting to check things for myself. we just do not have the info yet so that makes things into merely 'mind games'. I didn't know we'd tracked the fallout from the Meteorite over russia but that just makes me think more about 'impacts' from the tail encounter that would not have been 'measurable' in the past making 'linking' any impacts a matter of faith , or belief in comet as portents of dire circumstances?

 

With the reports , from NASAS, of possible noctilucent seeding I could not but think about global dimming and how such could impact our planet.

 

This lack of knowledge is the bug bear, I mean will we pass through the tail each year until it is so dissipated as to show no impact? That being so if we do see unwelcome changes could they be a thing repeating for years? ( remember the dust will enter before spring gets going so any 'dimming' would impact us going into summer......if it happened as we entered winter then impacts might be so potentially messy?).

 

Forgive me, but I am having trouble understanding this post in that I wonder if you are claiming that the dimming effects of the comet are likely to have a much more significant impact in winter than in Summer? If I have completely read your post wrong then I apologize. 

[Arctic Ice Discussion. 2013 Melt Season]

Anyone care to enlighten me as to the impacts , over re-freeze, of extra ice cover? When we have record losses we get folk telling us how this will aid 're-freeze' so does the opposite now apply with surplus ice? Will it limit heat loss into the atmosphere? Will the cover of ice limit any basal growth via insulation? Are we facing a very low figure for ice growth this winter compared to the years that had a lot more open water to freeze over?

I guess we will have to wait and see, otherwise it's possible that the ice may not have record increases in extent during the refreeze season.