pdjakow
-
Posts
13 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by pdjakow
-
-
More research needed, not a complete dismissal!!!
Is there any paper on OPI Index published?
-
GFS parallel results are already available on 0.25, 0.5, 1.0, 2.5deg.
ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/para/
Meteociel.fr results (1.0deg grid):
-
2
-
-
UK cooler than normal at begining of november.
GFS analysis - CFSR reanalysis, 1981-2010 base period.
-
That type of pattern was identified as a key driver in the 2010 winter. There are some similarities with the current pattern, but also some differences. Nothing ever quite fits the conceptual model perfectly.
Last years, 30 oct
Edit:
2009-10-30:
-
Tripole Forming?
What is that mean?
-
@draztik
Some strange things happens on Black Sea
However nice maps -
If anyone is interested:
http://meteomodel.pl/gfsanom.php
(Anomaly forecast for 8 days, updated as GFS)
-
5
-
-
First big winter storm is forecast for the weekend and could dump between 20-25cm of snow by Sunday night...here Autumn is now over..i suspect the snow that falls will now be on the ground until April.
Temperature anomalies over Europe (from GFS) are very interesting. Here is forecast for next 8 days (GFS init today, 06UTC)
(1981-2010 base period, from CFSR reanalysis)
Indeed there is cooler conditions expected in northern parts of UK, but there is huge positive anomaly over Europe with temperatures 6 deg C above normals in some parts. In fact average temperature for this period is higher in eastern Belarus than in northern UK
-
Profile updated
-
I think that lower solar activity has nothing to do with cold winters. Very cold months as feb 1956 or 1962/3 winter came near highest solar activity peak in 20th century.
In Poland we have warmer winters at begining of 20th century, when solar activity was weak.
Here is my reconstruction of monthly temperature anomalies after 1825 for Poland area:
http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/poltemp.txt
Winter anomalies
http://meteomodel.pl/klimat/poltemp/zima.png
Annual:
-
1
-
-
Did he reply?
No, he didn't.
-
What is really sad about J.Madden is that he apparently think that there was major Gulfstream slowdown between 2009 and 2010, which he often illustrates like that:
However it's not true. This image shows results of RTOFS model and "slowdown" is a result of changes in model, not in ocean currents. This change occured between sep 18 2009 and sep 19 2009. You can check this here:
http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/opendap/ncep/rtofs/2009/200909/ofs.20090918/surface/
18/19 sep 2009 difference:
What is even more sad is that I send him an email about this issue in august 2011.
However nice maps 
OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
AO predictions based on OPI Index are getting worse since 2012. There was amazing correlation 0.97 for 2000-2012 period, now it's only 0.73 for 2000-2014. It can be simple to explain If we had "calibarition period" before 2012.