[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

Lets recap all this in a orderly fashioned way. I will just give you my interpretation (which has not changed since my last posts) using the "list" I made. Anyone can use it and fill in his/hers own view. 

 

This year, do we have a significant stratospheric warming?                           Not really.

Is the warming propagating downwards?                                                        No.Fixed above 20mb.

Possible influence of the warming on the entire trop-strat layer?                 No. Geopotential height only. 

Do we have a technical SSW?                                                                       No 

Do we have a polar high establishing over the pole in the stratosphere?      No.

Do we have a split vortex?                                                                              Core only

Does the Gph increase greatly in the split cores?                                         Not really

Where are the 2 cores situated?                                                                   Canada and Siberia

Is the split long lasting?                                                                                 Short lasting

Does the vortex reform?                                                                                Yes

Which core takes the dominant role after the reformation?                           The one in the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector. 

Possible effects of the main core on the troposphere?                                  Additional cyclonic energy in the N. Atlantic sector. 

Possible resulting cold spells?                                                                       Under the W flank of the main core - N Canada.

 

Annex?                                                                                                           Yes - Graphics attached bellow. 

 

  

 

 

 

   

 

 

 

Call me a "git" if you wish, but as I said in my last posts, at the present moment the only thing this warming 30km-50km above seems to be doing, is eventually helping to send more energy into the N. Atlantic/Canadian sector via the split and reformation of the polar vortex.  Now I don't know if you either don't realize it, or don't want to realize it.

 

Kind regards.

 

Hi Recretos.

I posted once here and i have been reading your posts.

this group is exceptional IMO.

basically u said the whole truth.

I am learning the effects that the PV is having in my region.. Canada and USA.

my question to you is the following:

since we are more then likely to have a year where the PV does not split whatsoever , what other years prior to this one it has ever occurred?

did it ever occur at all ? a non split of the PV?

If so I would assume that since the vortex will remain localized over NA, would that infer a high possibility of a much colder spring then usual?

i would appreciate if someone could provide some feedback.

thanks

[Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014]

hi gents.

I have been lurking in your forum for awhile.

I am starting to learn tids and bits through the vast array of posts in the website .

I see several dedicated and enthusiastic members posting here.

I have a few questions .

i have seen quite a bit of enthusiasm from yesterday's runs in regards to an SSW .

I noticed the following from Berlin (yesterday) ... see below

 

 

 

If an SSW was supposed to be pronouncing itself wouldn't we see an increase in temperature between 1-5 mb from 70N/90N?

forgive me for the lack of terminology capacity that u guys have.

I also do not see berlin ( again) showing anything that would actually give us more certainty from the following ...

 

 

-QBO is more pronounced but we see no drop in temps at 70N/90N at 10 hpa.

i would appreciate if someone would pitch in.

As recretos says ... he did not know much not too long ago.

I hope i can at least learn 10 % of what you guys know.

cheers