Continental Arctic Front
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Posts posted by Continental Arctic Front
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It is indeed and I am starting to get excited!
i'm holding back for a little month because it's still not evaluated by the prof. team. But when the blocking gets in the forecast around the end of november-dec and the OPI team aproves this OPI score then i will start to get excited (and more then usual!
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OPI back to -1.89. Strange, in my opinion the 12z was better then the 06z.
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Beautiful 12z, the low pressure is even more scattered then in the 06z and higher geos above the arctic.
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-2.75
That's a very nice value! If the OPI truly is right this year then it's gonna be an exciting winter to watch the models when the blocking begins to start in dec-jan.
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There is a little pattern on the OPI charts, an decrease from a low point ( -1.86 to -2.52 ) has always been followed by another decrease...Eg, tonights update may go lower.....
I know it doesn't work like that in reality, but so far this month that is the pattern.
i'm looking at the 12z right now, and based on this run i see more blocking then the 06z on +96hr, so you can be right. i'm also glad to see that the OPI has dropped again in the 06z. The change of ending below -1.5 is realistic i think
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But Steve, the ECM has struggled just as much! Compare yesterday's dreamy 12z with the 0z as an example.
The current 12z is also not good, the vortex is activating it seems.
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I knew that the 12z gfs was not a good run but I didn't expect such a rise in the index!
The UKMO is not great either to be honest. Would it have followed the gfs if it was going further than 144 hours?
Me neither, but -1.8 is also a good value, the "breaking point" was -1.5 OPI i thought?
And thats true about UKMO, but the model calculates more pressure over eastern Siberia on 144hr, i dont see that in the EC and GFS run.
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OPI update.. -1.86, well i didn't see that one coming! Especially when you saw the graph of past year when it was stabilizing.
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It seems that this GFS oper has the least blocking if you compare with EC00z and GEM12z. Looking forward to EC12z.. Hopefully the OPI doesnt becomes more then -2.5.
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OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
can't wait for the winter with this figure! hehe