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rain_shadow

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Posts posted by rain_shadow

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rain_shadow

    To save time this week, I just check how many users are on the MOD thread, if <100, outlook for coldies is dire. 120 ok, 150+ wow.  Only takes 10 sec to know the weather next week. 👌

    (this only works during the day 😴😊) 

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rain_shadow

    2 hours ago, Summer8906 said:

    This is why January really needs a significant cold spell of some kind, snow or no snow.

    If the current mildness carries on we risk the 2016 or 2020-style silliness in which daffodils start coming out (and not just in isolated locations) at end of Jan and are widespread by mid Feb. We were very lucky that we got a coldish first half of spring in 2016 as otherwise I hate to think what would have happened - spring flowering completely over by early May?

    Already out in North Wales 🙄

    sadly and fortunately 12 C be max temp even in April which prolongs phenological phases. 

    🙃

    Screenshot_20231230_132146.jpg

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rain_shadow

    28 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

    Show off!!   Mind you, I do the same in horticulture, I just never liked conifers enough to learn 😛

    No excuse! 😛

    Taxodium colours are so striking it can cause an illusion of a painting on water (University of Liverpool, Ness Botanic Gardens) . 💦😊

    FB_IMG_1703672684240.jpg

    • Like 3

    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rain_shadow

    45 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    I think there's a fundamental lack of understanding regarding the capabilities of models if you can't see the difference between forecasting low level cloud on a local scale, compared to longer term, broader patterns. They're worlds apart, and just because it's immensely difficult to accurately predict cloud cover does not mean the models or forecasters are clueless.

    Sorry Nick, if it came down like that, I did not mean to compare the two (trust me, I understand the difference) and did not say they are clueless. I merely pointed out that the forecast changes as the model output changes so anything can happen mid term (it is still true that this weeks sunny days forecast on uk level was a failure - I should have mentioned it in the moans thread). This however is nothing to do with the macrosynoptics of course.   I am grateful to be able to learn from all of you here.

    • Like 2

    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rain_shadow

    14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    You are talking more micro whereas the pattern is macro. Whether we get low cloud or clear skies, we are still under a blocking high

     

    I know. but it won't last forever was my main message there and even the BBC forecasters cannot confidently say what will happen in 3 weeks time. I just pointed out on a separate note that "the experts" were unable to predict the cloud cover just 1 day ahead - the lack of sunshine is frustrating for some.

    • Like 1

    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by rain_shadow

    1 hour ago, The BEAST From The East said:

    So this is the reason they did the forecast that they did then.. they were only saying what they were seeing for next week.. 

    Such a shame that this always happens to us all with great model outputs yesterday evening and overnight then the following morning we get all the downgrades..... we deserve some luck..

    Hopefully things will turn back around later for us coldies.. ☺

    Oh the BBC FORECAST...They could not correctly forecast this week on Monday, never mind next week. What happened to the sunny days with frost? 1 day sun on Wed and then low cloud is back. I did not hear them to say sorry.

    The models are changing from run to run as the cold air in Central Eu generates mediterranean cyclones which are unpredictable. Probably the next run will be colder again. I can only repeat the mantra: "More patience needed." Often, big surprises just pop out of "nowhere". Did we see the BFTE last year this time? No. 

    • Like 6

    Summer 2018 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    When we will have a sunny day next? Yesterday: cloudy, day before: cloudy, last week: cloudy, the week before: cloudy. oh and today: guess what! - cloudy. No matter which wind direction is, even after this front: low cloud/medium level cloud. bbc: "britghter conditions to follow on Wednesday" -that can mean anything, what a genius forecast in 2018... Ramp over, waiting for the sun.  

    • Like 1
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