crucible72
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Posts posted by crucible72
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The question is: how many months will we have to wait before we get a CET higher than 12.7c on the 1st of the month? Could the start of January be warmer than the start of next June?
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4 minutes ago, ARW WeatherMan said:
Will be very interesting to see if it does
For it to be broken does it have to stay above 18.6oC in a location for 24 hours?
No it only needs to stay above 18.6 from 21:00 this evening until 9:00 tomorrow morning,
as that's the twelve hour time period during which minimum temperatures are recorded.
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20 hours ago, ARW WeatherMan said:
Just something I've noticed.
Friday night into Saturday morning london is not forecast to drop below 19oC and where I am here in Hertfordshire its not meant to be below 18oC!
I researched the record highest overnight minima and it's 19.4oC for October!
Is it a record worth watching out for?!
The record for England is 18.6C so this could definitely be beaten!
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Late forecast sorry 19.6C 40mm
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The Met Office have Exeter forecast to reach a UV of 9 tomorrow.
I wonder whether this is the first time they have forecast 9, as it says on their UV index
forecast page that the UV does not exceed 8 in the UK.
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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
-3.5 to the 1st
8.1 below the 61 to 90 average
8.5 below the 81 to 10 average
________________________________
Current high this month 4.9 to the 2nd
Provisionally the coldest start to a month since January 1979, which had a CET of -3.8 to the 1st.
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On 2/23/2018 at 05:58, The PIT said:
March 2013 was colder than all the three winter months.
In fact it was colder than all the winter months we have had so far this decade!
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16.4 please
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Hadley still operational so far, 4.7 after the 1st
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7.1 please
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1 hour ago, Chris.R said:
Does that still count even though it was 3.95? I suppose so as the other figures are rounded as well.
That would be my reasoning, and also, taking the rounded value means that years prior to 1772 can be included in the record (when values accurate to more than 1 dp are not known).
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On 1/3/2017 at 19:50, Timmytour said:
Interesting couple of months coming up.
December 2016 was the 10th consecutive winter month with a mean CET of 4C or greater. There have only been four such runs in mean CET history, all, bar one, coming since 1970.The second longest ever such sequence started in February 1997 and ended in with JAN 2001 which came in at 3.2C. If this month finishes at 4C or greater, than that sequence will be joined by the current sequence. If February proves a similar mildish month, this sequence will take second place outright.
January just about made it, so we join the other sequence on 11 now.
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The page has now been updated to give the CET as 6.0 to the 7th, and 4.0 as a final figure for January
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Interestingly there has never been a February with a CET of 5.5 since the figures started to be rounded to the nearest 0.1 degree,
but I'm going to go slightly above this and plump for 5.7
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10 hours ago, Man With Beard said:
I really wouldn't bet against it, looking at some of the ens right now
You think it might be above 6.2 you mean?
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So far the highest prediction is 6.2C. There have been 7 February's warmer than this since 1990.
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21 hours ago, Man With Beard said:
I'll hedge it - 4.2C please.
-4.2C?! We'll all freeze
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Sorry it's late I'm going for 3.4
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A very cold 2.3
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I'll go for 11.2 as well
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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Yes there is a lag effect in September, the warmer continental air mass and ground temps combined with warmer SST values seem to cancel out the lower levels of daylight and weaker solar strength when compared to the first 21 days of June.
A similiar effect occurs with the first 21 days of Dec and first 21 days of March, I suspect the Cet values for those periods are fairly similiar as well - anyone have the stats? However a sunny calm day in mid Dec always feels colder than a sunny calm day in mid March.
For the period 1981-2010, the CET for the first 21 days of December is 4.8 and the CET for the same period in March is 6.2, so significantly closer in value than their respective monthly averages of 4.6 and 6.6. These values get even closer if you go back through earlier years, as historically March tended towards cold starts.
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Good chance of all 3 summer months being above average now, would be the first time since 2003
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14.3 please
February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Optimus Prime It's even more extreme if you look at the second half of the month:
2023 7.3
2022 7.1
2021 8.3
2020 6.6
2019 9 (highest ever recorded)
Notably in 2023, 2021 and 2019 the second half of February was warmer than March. 2020 wasn't far off either.
Could have happened in 2022 as well if March hadn't been so warm that year. A truly remarkable run of warm second halves of February.