[Hurricane Ophelia]

7 minutes ago, Richard David McCarthy said:

So I take there is a fault somewhere it could be buoy related just really puzzled but I will be watching obs closely because i can see the last data looks dodgy there should be a ridge just ahead of the trough because i know that the pressure is around 1003mb here 

I just hope that this false data isn't being used to inform future forecast models, or to make decisions about navigation of aircraft etc.  Or, God forbid, decisions about evacuations of residents.  I suppose it goes to show that a human eye is still invaluable no matter how sophisticated computer data can seem.  

[Hurricane Ophelia]

2 minutes ago, Insert Name Here said:

Isnt that a higher pressure. Is it a faulty buoy?

The contours would seem to make sense if it is a pocket of high pressure.  But if it's a faulty buoy then maybe the model is just trying to depict this anomaly.  

[Hurricane Ophelia]

The buoy data was staring me in the face!  Hover your mouse near the centre of that mysterious Irish Sea feature and it gives you data for buoy "M2", seemingly near the centre.  And the pressure there is....  1039mb?!?

 

 

[Hurricane Ophelia]

5 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

It's from here. It's the pressure observation map, not a model, apparently.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Would it be possible for anyone to verify this chart with live pressure data from the Irish Sea, from buoys etc?  I've spent a few minutes scratching around on the web trying to find this information, but being a newbie when it comes to weather I didn't find anything of use.  

[Hurricane Ophelia]

Looking at the lightning map, it would seem that there's quite a fierce little thunderstorm brewing in approximately the same area as the centre of the storm.  

Would anyone be able to suggest why this is occurring now and not sooner?  Is it to do with the storm passing over colder parts of the ocean as it tracks north?

 

 

 

[Hurricane Ophelia]

8 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

I think it's supposed to make a turn towards the Irish Coast before landfall, although anything can happen really. 

Yep, and of course, as the NHC advisory stated, 

"Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone."

[Hurricane Ophelia]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Ophelia looks to be tracking straight north now and could miss Ireland all togeather,but it is the sat i am looking at and not winds of which could be a diff story.

It does look like there would now have to be quite a sharp eastern diversion in its track for its centre to make a direct hit on the Irish southern coast.  

[Hurricane Ophelia]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Related to the hurricane, I have a report from a non-meteorological forum on which I post meteorological info. of an electrical storm over mid-Cornwall.  Presumably, this is part of the convective structure establishing itself?

Looks like there have been a few lightning strikes around Truro / St Austell in the last few minutes.  See:  https://www.lightningmaps.org

 

[Hurricane Ophelia]

For context, here is an oft-misunderstood historic chart of hurricanes.  Note the one that skipped above the Baltics!