Lukemcd
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Posts posted by Lukemcd
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1 hour ago, Geordiesnow said:
I'm not worried about PPN charts, I actually do find the GFS is probably best at picking up features whereas the UKMO is usually more clean in its set ups, whether that's down to the model I don't know?
What I will say though, Thursdays potential front aside, I hope it is bone dry because as soon as those winds veer NW'ly then that's it, snow chances greatly reduce as we pick up slightly less cold air - 6 uppers with above average sea temperatures for our region especially are just not cold enough for snow except for higher ground. We really needed a proper - 10hpa Northerly to reduce the affects of the air mixing out but the initial northerly in terms of how far south the - 8hpa gets is getting more and more diluted with every run(even the GFS is picking up a pocket of - 4hpa in the North East for example!
I have to remind meself this is December and not November. Comparisons to 1981 in that model thread are just laughable.
Actually, from what I have been reading on here I thought the upper temps are supposed to be getting colder the closer we get to the event? By recent standards this is supposed to be quite a potent spell, so snow is certainly possible IMO even with global warming I thought you were just referral to the initial frontal frontal passage on Thursday after that isn't it supposed to be cold enough for it to snow everywhere even at sea level? (Precipitation permitting of course)
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I live in South Liverpool what do you think the chance of me seeing snow this week I would presume pretty high considering the output do you think will be OK in South Liverpool I presume we all could see something at some point
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9 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
Looking at past years weather records the two significant links that I can identify in the UK's weather patterns that appear to exist are the mild February = mild March theory, and the warm September = mild winter theory. I cannot see a link in any of the other months in the year that appears to be as strong or significant as these two.
One is that I find that really mild February CETs (6c and above), are nearly always followed by mild Marches (above 7.5c CET); 1995 being one exception in recent decades, and a couple of other recent 6c+ CET Februarys that were followed by March CETs in the high 6s, so a clear significant correlation there. The other significant correlation link that I can see that exists just as much is that warm Septembers (CETs high 14s and definitely 15c and above) are nearly always followed by milder than average winters, with a couple or three at the most that were not far from average, but I cannot think of a cold winter in recent decades at least that has followed on from a really warm September (September 1985s CET of 14.6 is the warmest I can think of that was followed by a winter in the colder category). So based on this evidence I would say that it is highly likely that there is never a chance of a cold winter after a really warm September, and that a correlation between warm Septembers and milder winters to follow with little in the way of cold patterns in them, definitely exists.
On that basis is a very mild December more likely to result in a mild January and February just wondering?
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11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
The warm September theory struck last September, it was the seventh warmest on record, and it is in my reckoning one of the most known factors about the UK's weather patterns at a particular time in the year and the weather patterns more likely to come in the following few months. that it is very rare to get a cold winter after a really warm September. Warm Septembers really are winter killer patterns for the winter to follow, and winter 2021-22 was already dead in the water from being anything special during the really warm September of 2021, and the really warm September killed it, even though some other background signals were more supportive for colder patterns to develop.
When September 2021 turned out the way it did, very warm, the writing was on the wall against winter 2021-22 being up to much from the perspective of cold synoptic patterns, and my view is that it is highly unlikely that the UK will ever see a winter being cold again that follows on from a really warm September - the theory and link appears to be so strong, and up there with other poor background signals like a strong ocean temperature anomaly either way anywhere (ENSO, IOD), westerly QBO and high solar activity. The warm September theory appears to be just as bad.
Although nothing guarantees colder conditions for the UK, it appears that when you have only one of these; strong ocean temperature anomaly either way (ENSO, IOD), westerly QBO, high solar activity, or a warm September the odds just simply appear to be stacked against any favourable patterns developing to do the UK any favours from a cold perspective.
There is nothing scientific about a warm September = mild winter or no cold winter for the UK I find it strange as it does seem to be a statistical fluke IMO unless there is an actual scientifically proven connection. If it is a statistical fluke it is possible that it could be broken one day like with the poor summers ending in 8 statistical fluke - broken 2019? Otherwise just asking if you or someone else put forward a theory to why there is a warm September-mild winter link as there is no similar link for other months like warm/hot July=mild winter?
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54 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
The statistics show that a proper cold winter could occur in 2009-10, a decade ago, on the back of a fairly cold one the year before. Then following on from that we had the severe cold in Dec 2010, then two years later we had a number of cold spells in 2012-13 and then the very cold March that year. That said the seven winters since then make an exceptionally grim showing with only 2017-18 that was close to the average overall and most of the others being well above average with little in the way of cold snaps in them let alone cold spells, and 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been a absolute disaster in what they have served up, given that we are close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly, so these last two winters that we have had close to solar minimum look a sign that it is no longer realistically possible for us to see another 2010 / 2013 etc. If 2018-19 and 2019-20 had have happened when the background signals were poorer, such as near solar maximum, combined with a westerly QBO, and a strong ENSO anomaly then the future situation of UK winters would have appeared less worrying, but the fact that close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly has produced winters as devoid of cold weather as 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been, then it just shows that something is badly wrong and has changed significantly since 2013.
Yes but this winter has mainly been a descending westerly QBO or a transitional period so it is not possible to say that this winter was a pure negative QBO so we might have to wait until next winter to see the effect of that also I follow Gavs Weather Videos and when he was doing his winter forecast he forecast a slightly below average winter but he said he could not rule out a very mild winter due to the situation with the sea surface temperatures not being favourable he mentioned both the Pacific and the Atlantic explaining that a tripole pattern is normally favourable for a cold winter in NW Europe but he said at the beginning of December we have the opposite of a tripole in the Atlantic so we cannot rule out the possibility of the SSTs and the IOD causing issues for this winter. before 2008/09 it was said on these forums by a guy by the name of Ian Brown with his MW theory that we could not experience a winter like 1995/96 ever again but we all know that it was disproven by 2009/10 which was colder than 1995/96 and December 2010. Experiencing those events in my recent adult lifetime, never mind my whole life time makes it difficult to believe that we will not see similar events again in our lifetimes even with reduced frequency - as explained we had 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and 2018 not to forget March 2013 too which was the coldest March that many of us have experienced - I cannot believe that the ability to experience significant cold spells can be turned off like a switch especially in the context of a complex, chaotic system like weather and climate - I did Physics at University and I know that Meteorology involves a lot of physics, but unlike many branches of physics like particle physics and classical mechanics, weather and climate is particularly chaotic in other branches of physics I believe that Quantum Mechanics (uncertainty principle) and radioactive decay of the nucleus with random decay will be more approximate to this situation as I said I do not deny that global warming is happening I can't see how the possibility of significant cold events turn off like a switch metrology is not a black and white science.
Luke
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If it is the case that a prolonged cold spell in winter is no longer possible, then why did we get December 2010 as the coldest December in more than 100 years clearly looking at it from the perspective of that you could easily say that December 2010 or the coldest December for over 100 years would no longer be possible before 2008. Looking at it from a scientific perspective although I have no doubt that we have a warming climate, December 2010 was still less than a decade ago which is nothing in climatological terms, just a drop in the ocean - we are talking less than a decade ago never mind 1947/63/78 etc. So the question I would like to ask is not why this winter was mild, but why 2010 actually happened at all within this context. And we had significant cold in February/March 2018 only 2 years, yes 2 years ago. So even though the statistics show a warming climate, they also show IMO that it will be a long time before you can say that winter cold spells and cold and snow in UK winters are a thing of the past and anyone who suggests otherwise does not understand basic statistics and science IMO unless they can back this up with a theory to why the rate of change in our climate has accelerated rapidly over the last decade. You would expect the rate of warming to be more uniform, and in addition to this within this decade other parts of the world have had severe cold spells relative to average such as USA 2013-14 yes they have more of a continental climate but that was even more recently than 2010. So cold spells on our planet have certainly not gone away, it is just we have not had the right synoptic pressure patterns. I also want to ask this question of you too - Considering our warming climate if we had the same synoptic pattern as 1962-63 today, would it be as cold and snow as then?
Regards,
Luke
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Hi Sunny,
Chicago has a very high crime rate (murders/shootings especially) very high by our standards and they have colder winters than London so I doubt there is a link between cold weather and low crime rates maybe we could look at the crime stats of US cities that get cold weather and the effect on crime rates but on both sides of the Atlantic I would think it would be more to do with the weather discouraging people from going outdoors than anti social behaviour and boredom per say especially in the US cities that get severe winters.
Regards,
Luke
North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Further to my above post can't see marginality coming into it after Friday especially with near ice days forcast