Joe Snow

Could be very similar to 18th Jan 2013 - Stockport & MCR city centre saw a dusting as they were in the rain shadow, we saw 5-6cm here in Sandbach but Midlands copped a lot more 10cm+ as close as Stoke but altitude helped them. Think Wirral/ Merseyside did fairly well from that event too. Our problem will be less the rain shadow but getting the front to us in the first place.

Yeah we'll do ok if it pushes north enough, as @Kasim Awan says significant rain shadow across Greater MCR and N Cheshire, Macclesfield SWards towards Crewe less so but still a risk of rain shadow - light snow if anything. Going to go down to the wire but Midlands look to be in the sweet spot this time around or should I say as usual! It'll be a nowcast.

Yeah there’s always a danger with these type of scenarios of it becoming a Midlands only event (we had a couple of them last winter tbh but they still gave the S of the region some snow) N Midlands (Staffs, Derbyshire) into the Peak District look good for now - with South of MCR looking best placed for snow from a NW perspective but we shall see lots can & will change it’ll be a nowcast for sure.

Well maybe to Stoke’s Matt - I actually saw deeper snow when I lived in Finchley N London suburbs back in the BFTE than anytime here in South Cheshire. Snow is more regular up here (v rare to go a winter without some snow whereas snowless winters are increasingly common in Greater London) but when they do get heavy snow down in London & the SE it’s usually in the form of a big dumping and see therefore much more disruption. London & SE summers are great too - 23-24c on average in July/ August , occasionally hot & often humid with big Spanish plume thunderstorms. Beats the 19c overcast days that plague our summers up here.

Think all of us might see something wintry between Boxing Day & New Year but it’s going to be messy with higher ground favoured for any significant snowfall currently, messy lower down with anything from a wintry mix to heavy wet snow. Ironically these kind of messy scenarios can deliver big for favoured locations in our region even if it doesn’t stick around - just look at Storm Christoph’s rain-snow - 8cm here on the Cheshire plain in the space of a few hours gone by afternoon of the next day. Keep the faith folks! No big freeze but lots of wintry interest this Xmas/ New Year period how often can we say that?!

Well it’s Monday morning and we’re still not any clearer as to what’s occurring late this week. Think we may see a halfway house between colder/ milder options some snow possible too - maybe a bit like Boxing Day 2014 in terms of timing? Still lots to be resolved though as it’s got the pros in London & Exeter scratching their heads. The rollercoaster continues for now....

Well at least it’s not just us! ??

Interesting local contrast between N & S Cheshire this morning - speaking to a friend who lives in Woodford nr Stockport reporting a bit of mist burning off to bright sunshine walking the dogs yet here 20 miles south in S Cheshire still shrouded in fog probably a matter of altitude - S & W Cheshire is much lower down than Macclesfield NEwards. Fog ? always a good indicator for a future cold spell in my view.

Raises the stakes for a cold spell to deliver perhaps?

Well 18z is an eyebrow raiser to say the least... great to look at ( featuring a snowstorm for the south of the region no less) but not to get worked up over yet a variation on a very cold potentially snowy theme. Lots of potential as we try and close in on the cold!

Yep I remember looking at forecasts 5-7 days away from the BFTE in 2018 in a mope at how bitterly cold but dry it looked. On the 27th/28th Feb we had whiteout conditions across the country & 10cm of snow lying in the N London suburbs where I was living from snow showers. Similar scenario in 2010/2013 cold spells - these cold blocked scenarios as we all know are rarely are as ‘dry’ as they look as small + sometimes more potent features crop up at short notice. Let’s get that cold locked in!

Hi @Kasim Awan how do you see currently the coming potential cold spell panning out for the NW on a regional level? Will we be in the battleground? Most of interest for me is the potential of a bitter late Dec- start to January flagged up on recent model runs

It’s worth noting also that if a cold pattern became locked in any wintryness over Xmas- New Year may well just be a mere teaser to a brutally cold & snowy early January. One to watch

Yep - nervy few days coming up as if it can go wrong in the UK it more than likely will! Very encouraging flip back towards cold in the last 12-24 hours or so though but we all know getting a widespread cold & snowy spell to the UK is never simple

Happy Saturday everyone - and the big flip back towards cold continues lots of interest but not getting excited just yet though

6z goes dodgy in the long term lots still to be resolved but a cold Xmas with wintry potential still looking likely. GFS doing it’s classic underestimation of the cold block out east but it’s the UK we are talking about here if we can find a way of wriggling out of the freezer we will! Let’s get the cold in first as one run doesn’t make or break a winter

Ian F a few weeks ago mentioned that Meteogroup were going for a cold winter 2021/22 with northern blocking that became colder and snowier as winter went on. May well be on the cusp of a classic 1978/79 winter who knows but judging by the current cold & snowy charts that the 18z has added to - the coldest spell of winter weather since the 2018 BFTE might well be on its way made even more exciting as we are nearing Xmas Still huge caution however as if it can go wrong for the UK it will!

Thought it looked fairly similar - so south of the region doing better out of any frontal snow chances?

It was a strange winter. Even places like Stockport buried in 2009/10 ,2010/11 didn't see as much snow as the likes of Northwich and Crewe.

On rare occasions the south of the region can get lucky like 18th Jan 2013 where the band of snow from the SW stalled to a halt just south of Manchester giving Cheshire, Wirral, N Wales & Merseyside several hours of heavy snow, schools shut early and a good few inches fell but it was a Midlands event for sure. Usually though we get the scraps or are just too far north for such systems. ECM & UKMO actually look better than even the GFS for NW snow chances over Xmas, great eye candy but its all in fantasy land at the minute.

Haha Sssh don’t jinx it knowing the GFS it’ll have us in 15c for Xmas Day on the 18z - now that would call for flip flops In all seriousness though great move towards cold & snowy for the Xmas period this evening - hopefully we can build upon that over the next few days but fully prepared for drama along the way!

Big shift towards cold on the 12z By no means a done deal yet though - won’t have any real sense of properly what’s to come until Sunday/ Monday + likely flip flops between different scenarios but positive moves towards the ECM all the same - battleground scenarios are often good for the NW even though perhaps not the snowy nirvana they are for the Midlands due to basic geography. Let’s get the cold in first & the snow will hopefully follow!

It really would be s*d’s law wouldn’t it that the GFS would be right - a couple of days of faux cold, maybe some frost then the Atlantic turns up from nowhere to spoil the festive cheer. Think we may see a halfway house between the ECM & GFS (battleground scenario into late month) but still lots to be resolved.

J.F.F - ECM 12z gives us a proper White Xmas! Something must be up! Feet firmly on ground at the moment though but as others have said we are in the unusual situation that colder conditions are more likely than mild the next few weeks or so

Whilst some in the NW might turn their noses up at the potential of an E wind usually cloudy, raw and with snow grains in the wind winter weather for low level NW England. Given how cold the continent has been & is forecast to get it would probably pack quite a punch if it reaches UK shores around Xmas - one to rival 2018’s BFTE perhaps? Lets get the cold in first and see what happens we are approaching mid winter so the best time for proper wintry weather