Tom Montalbano

Plainview, thats where they had lunch wasnt it? They could've stayed there, had a 72oz steak, which they would just be finishing, and with a great storm overhead, to boot. Regards, Tom.

I assume they're heading to somewhere near Childress, although there are a few more cells firing up to the west of them. Regards, Tom.

Potent looking cell showing on radar, developed rapidly, close to Matador. Regards, Tom.

Yes, some tasty looking cells shooting up west of Plainview, tracking NE. Regards, Tom.

Here's mine. 8th Sept. 1955. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119550908.gif A few French imported t/storms a possibility, I would've thought. Although I dont remember of course. :o Regards, Tom.

Yes G.P., might get a bit warm in our office if too many favourites win! :o Yes some nice snowy conditions a la The Thinkers Gold Cup would be interesting. I do remember a bit of snow further back with Alvertons Gold Cup in 1979. Remove this if you feel the need to mods but snow, Cheltenham and Peter O'Sullevan. It doesnt get much better! Regards, Tom.

I think it will be a pretty average month with a colder than average first half cancelled out by some milder weather in the 2nd half. So 6.5c for me. Sorry OT mods but what sort of weather can we expect for Cheltenham this year, G.P.? Regards, Tom.

Half way through this. What an absolute load of tosh! Way OTT, on this basis Jan '87 merited a 20 week series. Now we are led to believe that the Met Office attributes this snowfall to a mid-Jan stratospheric warming, when that didnt start until Jan 22/23 or so I thought. Regards, Tom.

Had some light to mod. snow in Croydon town centre between 5.30 and 6.30, then stopped. Noticed we were then on western edge of ppn. On drive home to Lee SE12, just after 7, encountered snow starting again in Shirley and on the outskirts of Bromley there was a dusting in places from the snow that fell around 5. Back home in Lee now, snow starting to settle and certainly feels colder than earlier. Regards, Tom.

I dont think we'll see a marked temp drop until after 6 a.m. http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090209/18/12/h500slp.png http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090209/18/09/ukmaxtemp.png Notice the steep temp gradient. We are likely to see temps fall rapidly over a short space of time once the low clears to the east of us. GFS ppn type charts indicating sleet moving SE into our area at 3 a.m. http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090209/18/0...ctypeuktopo.png The encouraging thing is the ppn type charts for 9 p.m showed this. http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090209/18/0...ctypeuktopo.png Yet there have been widespread reports of settling snow from the S.W, Wales and parts of the Midlands. Although ppn will lose intensity towards dawn, it is still possible we might see rain turning to snow with a covering in places and more over hills. This could turn out to be a surprise event for us down here and deliver more than any of us expected. However, what is against us is the temp drop is expected to occur during mid-morning. Regards, Tom.

Running through the radar returns from the overnight period it doesnt look like the ppn will get much further north than the S.Pennines at most, unless forecasts are expecting a pulse from the south, to send it further north. Interesting report there from TONA of sleet Oxon/Warks border but he does have a bit of elevation. I think its entirely possible we might see rain turn to snow a little south of Birmingham a bit later on, which I didnt think was likely at all yesterday evening. Certainly an interesting days weather coming up. Regards, Tom.

Probably get shot down in flames here but I just cant see that amount of snow and as far south as was shown on Thomas S.'graphics, re. this "Winter Storm" tomorrow. I think a lot of members are in for a big let down if they think theres going to be inches and inches of snow as far south as the S.Midlands. More of a concern to me would be flooding problems associated with high rainfall totals and snow melt. I think for most of us it will be a case of cold driving rain, with a little back edge snow as we go through Tuesday. I hope I'm wrong, mind you if its as bad as he suggested it would be, perhaps I shouldnt wish for it. Interesting for the second half of the week, staying cold with snow showers in the north of Scotland and eastern coastal counties. Regards, Tom.

Just to show 2 examples , albeit extreme, of lows approaching from the SW, around the N.W.French coast, that gave copious snowfall to our area. Note the 850 temps on both examples away to the east and north of us (S.North Sea & Low Countries), and as these lows approached they sucked in this frigid air courtesy of the easterly winds on their northern flanks, undercutting the mild air and turning the ppn to snow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119621230.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00219621230.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00119781231.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00219781231.gif Now Mon/Tues. low. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn541.png http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn542.png We dont have that frigid PC air to tap into and change the ppn to snow. I grant you , 2 extreme examples but as you can see the differences are stark. I still think we might get some back edge snow once the low clears east of us, though. Regards, Tom.

GFS 18z parallel run is very similar to the op. run re. the track of the low on Mon/Tues. N.French coast - Belgium. Here are the 500s and ppn type for that period. http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/57/h500slp.png http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/5...ctypeuktopo.png http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/63/h500slp.png http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/69/h500slp.png http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/6...ctypeuktopo.png Even with that track I cant see much snow south of the Midlands until the low clears away east and drags colder air back south with some back edge snow for a short time, moving SE. As Friday, -5 850s dont get south of the Midlands until the low clears east of the Greenwich Meridian. http://gfs.netweather.tv/gfs.20090207/18/66/h850t850eu.png Regards, Tom.

Morning guys, Just a quick hello from the SE. Thats an interesting radar at the moment, looks esp. good for N.York Moors but other locations near the coast as well. Hope you all get a good dumping! Regards, Tom.

I thought you guys in E.Kent would've had a bit more snow than that, perhaps it started as rain then and turned to snow later. Regards, Tom. Morning charlton n-d, I see your lurking. Hows my favourite part of the Kentish Alps looking this morning. Regards, Tom

Any reports from E.Kent/E.Sussex this morning, those ppn charts were pretty accurate re. the snow pepping up again and the main ppn has only just cleared the Kent coast in the last half hour. Would imagine Downs east of Canterbury have a nice covering and the hills around Dover/Folkestone must be pretty difficult this morning. Regards, Tom.

Yes stopped here in London SE20 and skies starting to break. Looking for temps to drop off nicely now. All eyes on next week. :lol: Regards, Tom.

Interesting FAX charts showing now for Tues/Weds. Better not show them on this thread though. Sure someone will have posted them on Model thread. Regards, Tom.

Cheers Paul, Snowbob, for ppn charts go to GFS chart viewer on Datacentre page, then go to select chart type. Scroll down, you'll find charts for UK ppn and UK ppn type. These charts show ppn/ppn type for each GFS run throughout. I find they tend to exaggerate amounts but show trends of increasing/decreasing ppn quite well. Regards, Tom.

Hi Tamara, I see the GFS 18z still wants to pep up the ppn over Kent/Sussex for a while after midnight, yet. Regards, Tom.

You're making me jealous cn-d. World Cup Skiing from Biggin Hill this Sunday perhaps and ski-jumping off of Westerham Hill! Regards, Tom.

Agree with those comments Paul, GFS seem to be much better at nailing small scale events at close range. Perhaps European models better medium to long term, especially in northern blocking situations, says he wishful thinking. :wub: You will hear a big cheer from S.E.London if S.E.Essex finally gets a decent snowfall this winter. You deserve it mate and not just for all the good work you put in on this forum and site, in general. :lol: Regards, Tom.

Snow getting heavier here in Anerley and trying to settle. Regards, Tom.

Hi Paul S. Hows your Leigh and Southend Thames Streamer inquiry going. Have you appointed a judge yet? I was just thinking, if a map of snow depths were produced, from London out to the Estuary, it would look rather strange around your way. Cant wait to read your findings. Regards, Tom.