Tom Montalbano

Got so carried away with the other threads forgot to post my punt! Oh I dont know...............3.3c. Thanks. Regards, Tom.

Night all, fellow south-easterners/east anglians. Have to work tomorrow but I shall be keeping up to date with developments. Not expecting to see anything in Croydon(work) during the aft. but on my return to SE12, hope to see something in the evening. So sleep tight and may all your dreams be white! Regards, Tom.

Thanks for that Paul, certainly that deeper cold pool should help. BTW, liking the look of that new FAX for t120 but lets get out to t72, out the way first! Regards, Tom.

Sorry Timmy H, starting at Donna-ms' place then on to you and then all points WSW. Regards, Tom.

Evening to all in SE/EA, Well I think we'd certainly be National chattering champions down here! :lol: I've just about finished the model and SE/EA thread after getting home from work, you guys can post! Certainly liking Peter Gibbs graphics for a Thames streamer, starting at Paul S.s' house, moving WSW down the Thames corridor over KW, Steve M./Snow Ravens' abodes, on to myself (I'm now in SE12, just the other side of Shooters Hill, from Bexleyheath), and neighbours here in SE.London., and stretching down into the Surrey Downs. If Honey is still about, from Cliffe, near Rochester, thats not a bad location either. The higher parts of the Bromley area (N.W.Kent), normally do well from an ENE, e.g. Biggin Hill. Might have a wander up there on Monday. Paul S. mentioned the 2003 T/S, which also dumped around 8 inches around Bluewater, near Dartford. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120030107.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00220030107.gif We also had a streamer event in that notable cold spell in late Feb/early March 2005, possibly 2. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00120050225.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/...00220050225.gif Just a quick question to Steve M., Paul S. and KW (as they all have T/Streamer experience), are they not more likely to develop in a slacker flow? Steve M./ Snow Raven, if your about, could get interesting up on Shooters Hill late tomorrow night/early hours of Mon., and Biggin Hill of course! Regards, Tom P.S. Havnt seen so much grit scattered about around Bromley High Street, as I saw tonight, in a long time. :blush:

Thought I'd be clever and wait until the last minute for the models to sort themselves out a bit! More confused than ever now. So going for a conservative 3.8c. Hope I'm wrong and its much lower of course. Happy New Year to all NW members. Best wishes and regards, Tom.

Dont have any instrumentation but here in London SE20, although theres plenty of cloud about, its more broken than I thought it would be. Also lovely to see clouds moving from an ENE direction, from t'over Steve Murrs' house! Regards, Tom.

Current Bookmakers odds for a white Christmas. 3/1 Glasgow, 5/1 Birmingham, Cardiff, Leeds, Liverpool, London, Manchester. I will update these odds on the run up to the big day. Certainly at the moment no value in these odds at all. Just out of interest some odds for Scandinavian cities. Evens Oslo, 2/1 Stockholm, 5/2 Gothenberg, 7/2 Malmo, 5/1 Copenhagen. I think there certainly better value than the odds for the UK but nothing worth getting your teeth into just yet. Regards, Tom.

Very undecided, so going to sit on the fence and be very boring. Bang on the average, 5.1c. Hope it comes in at a lot colder, of course. Due to the credit crunch and no Xmas bonus at work , I wont be able to buy you anything for Xmas. Thought you might like one of these to wake up to on Xmas day. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119621225.gif You in the north of Britain can have your white Xmas, if I can save my present for Boxing Day. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119621226.gif I might not have to work for once on a Boxing Day, if that came off, as if. Regards, Tom.

Thanks for your reply GP. O/T but hope you're finding a few winners. I dont suppose you saw the conditions at Fairyhouse yesterday, certainly the worst conditions I've ever seen for a meeting to take place in, thick frost on the track and the fog wasnt much better. Dont think it would've passed an inspection this side of the Irish Sea. Mind you those Irish jockeys are tough so and so's, just look at how many times Ruby Walsh et al have come back from bad falls. :lol: Regards, Tom.

Hi GP, Stewart, tremendous amount of work put in there and a great read as ever. I really enjoyed the video dicussions as well. You seemed to have backed away from a very mild February now, what has happened in the last couple of weeks for you to have a rethink about Feb. Also, are you still confident that we can record a colder than average December given that this weeks cold spell seems a little uncertain given todays model outlook. Regards, Tom.

I'm with Paul S. on this one, very specifically a flow from an ENE direction, so the air remains in contact with a source of moisture for as long as possible, ie the Thames Estuary. We then have a chance of the fabled "Thames streamer" setting up.The colder the air the better, as in Jan.1987 of course. Here are a few examples of synoptics where "Thames streamers" occurred. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119701224.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119701225.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120030106.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120030108.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050222.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120050225.gif I always sit up and take notice when there is an area of high pressure say between Iceland and Scotland. Especially when you have an area of 850s at -10 drifting towards S.E. England from the continent. Regards, Tom.

Hi shuggee, Yes the Pacific not looking as cold this year compared to 2000, with the anomalies in slightly different areas. I suppose with all the cold now starting to build in Siberia and China and interacting with those mild Pacific anomalies, it might well lead to a raging Pacific arm of the jet, which might not be good news for us. But thats the wonder of all this teleconnection, jigsaw stuff, how does it all come together! Regards, Tom.

I've just had a flick through the SST anomaly charts for around this time since 2000. There certainly seems to be less of a positive anomaly in the area just to south of Greenland and Iceland than any Nov. at this time, actually since 2000. Here is the chart for the 18th Nov.2000: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-001119.gif And now for 16th Nov.2008: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-081116.gif Very similar positioning of anomalies as 2000 in the N.Atlantic, although not as extreme. Interestingly the following month of December produced the most negative AO index in the last 50+ years, and was negative in both Jan and Feb although not to the same extreme. The NAO index was also negative in Dec. but positive for both Jan and Feb. Will be interesting to see if the AO index reacts in a similar way (it is forecast to take a dip as we head towards December). Only part of the picture for sure but it will be interesting to see how this winter pans out, with respect to the above elements. Regards, Tom.

Hi Snowyowl9, Yes the 80's had some shockers in terms of cold, snowy Xmas periods. The '81 Xmas day came at the end of that momentous spell of cold and snowy weather in that great December. At least the Jan/Feb spells of the mid 80's made up for it somewhat. We cant buy a cold Jan. for love or money now. Regards, Tom.

Hi OP, I should've mentioned 2000 but I noticed that chart in an earlier post but you're quite right, a very noteworthy spell. Yes, Decembers of the '60s had some really notable cold spells and great eye-candy charts for cold weather lovers. Regards, Tom. Thanks Mr.Data, Now I know where I saw those '38 charts. Great stuff as usual! Especially like the article with reference to 8" of snow in Kent, my home county. Regards, Tom.

Afternoon all, Seems strange discussing white Xmases while looking out at clear blue skies and temps around the 70f mark. Xmas day in isolation, is not a great day for wintry type synoptics. One of the most snowiest of the last century was 1938 but i cant find a synoptic chart to illustrate that fact, if i ask nicely perhaps somebody could post one! Snow seems more common towards the New Year. The colder Xmas days tend to be dry, which I suppose mirrors winters in general. Here are a few examples of some of the more wintry looking synoptics for Xmas day: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119611225.gif Cold and sunny generally, heavy snow in the midlands and the south a few days prior to the New Year. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119621225.gif White Xmas for most of the northern half of Britain. Further south bitterly cold after severe overnight frost, then heavy snow on Boxing day. The rest is history as they say. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119641225.gif A few snow showers in the N. & N.E. but otherwise cold and sunny. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119651225.gif Sure to have been some snow from this set-up but dont have any info. If any members have any please. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119701225.gif Snow and some thunder for the S.E. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119781225.gif Snow for some parts of Scotland but very cold weather and snow spread south towards the New Year. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/19...00119951225.gif Snow for quite a few areas, notably Scotland, with a severe blizzard giving 35cms in Shetland with a lot of drifting. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120011225.gif Must have been some snow for the north but dont have any info. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/20...00120041225.gif A white xmas for some parts of the N. and W. I see Mr.Data is lurking, perhaps you could help me with some info on Xmas day 1938, 1965 and 2001 kind sir! One of the more snowier looking charts would be a very nice present first thing Xmas day 2008. Regards, Tom.

Would expect wintry showers to start appearing on the N.E. England coast early aft. & then overnight North York Moors & Lincs Wolds look the places to be with some reasonable accumulations by tomorrow morning. Regards, Tom.

I'll go for 4.2C please but not confident at all, obv. a lot depends on the big guy to our N.E (who hasnt even developed yet). Some mild spells in there but I think another shot at perhaps a more potent cold spell a little further down the line, if this one comes to nothing. Could be well out, so basically I've bottled it and split the difference and gone for average. Regards, Tom.

Hi BFTP, As a fellow south-easterner I'd take that now mate! Really hope that comes off for you, I feel that January might well surprise a few people. It wouldnt be before time would it! It might make working in Croydon a little bit more palatable, if theres a bit of the white stuff about! B) Who knows Redhill might become Whitehill. Merry Xmas, Tom.

Hi TM, I'm glad you've posted on this subject again. This is what I posted on the 8th Dec. "I remember having a discussion with Terminal Moraine a couple of years ago regarding a theory of Colin Finch and A.N.Other. The theory suggests that if max.temps fail to reach 40f in old money on 4 consecutive days in the first 3 weeks of December, then the likelihood of further spells of cold weather during the rest of winter are more likely than if these criteria are not met. I cant quite remember what part of the country this applied to but as I heard this when Colin Finch was appearing on a London radio station back in the 70s, I think it probably suggests S.E.England. Now to me that kind of temp regime would suggest high pressure to the north/east or indeed a cold high sitting over the S/East. The forecast charts seem to be suggesting this kind of set-up with that kind of temp. regime. I dont think Decembers in recent years have produced these kind of synoptics. As we know only to well our winters have changed a fair bit since the 60s and 70s but if these forecasts come to fruition it will be interesting to test this theory out. If you read this TM please correct me if I've got my facts wrong!" I couldnt quite remember the exact qualifying max. temps and period but I knew it was something along the lines that you mention. Off the top of my head I would say that we havnt quite met the qualifying criteria but it was a close run thing. I stand to be corrected of course! Regards, Tom.

Morning everyone, After having viewed these horror charts for a couple of days, I`m going to have to jump ship and amend my forecast to 5.9c. :blush: Regards, Tom.

Lets have a go at this as well then. Sorry D4L, I've jinxed you, 5.3c its got to be. Sort of averagey type month. Regards, Tom.

Moning all, Hope this ok with Mods. A quick link to a very informative site: http://andvari.vedur.is/english/ Have a quick look at road conditions this morn., especially in N.E.Iceland, very nasty. Makes you sick doesnt it! Regards, Tom.

Stuck my arm out into the heavy rain and my jumper had what looked like a few flakes of snow on it, sad I know but hope it counts!