[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

yes London seems to be too far in the wrong place at the moment

Yes same here in Lee, Lass.

Did think it would be mainly a Kentish affair.

Mmm, there are likely to be plenty of Kentimetres about, later!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Thought I would post up the following Youtube clip, for those new members in our Region, wondering about the dynamic process taking place over our Region, currently.

Apologies, as it's on the other side of "The Pond" but it is the same process as what is occurring over our region at the moment, albeit on a much larger scale.

Mmm, no worries about marginal Dew Points, there!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Current temps around our Region, with colder air encroaching from the East: 

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The only chance of seeing a flake here is probably on the confectionery section of the local supermarket…..

Best of luck for those getting snow today.

More Gallows Humour, C, S,

But stay in the warm, no need to go to the Supermarket I've got you one of these!!

Regards,

Tom Q.  

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

If it is in the form of a northerly then it will probably be sunny here lol

No doubt Lass, courtesy of one of these - 

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

If it keeps that up until smarch, you might get a dusting

I love your "gallows type humour" in these situations, Lass.

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Alpine glow said:

I chose my current house because of the lamppost outside

Now that is dedication from a Snow Geek, A g.

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

8 minutes ago, snow raven said:

Heavy snizzle in Bexleyheath 

Yes, same here in Lee, Leeanne and that's not easy to say!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

That stuff forecast to cross from Holland into the Southern North Sea looks interesting, especially for Kent.

Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar

WWW.METEORADAR.CO.UK

---

View the current rain and weather forecast on the rain radar at Meteoradar.

 

Buienradar.nl - Buienradar.nl - Weer - Actuele neerslag, weerbericht, weersverwachting, sneeuwradar en satellietbeelden

WWW.BUIENRADAR.NL

---

Actuele buienradar en actueel weer voor Nederland en Europa, actuele satellietbeelden, actuele temperaturen, neerslag, en veel meer!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, BLS said:

Between Sevenoaks and Maidstone could be the sweet spot this morning, rain has turned to snow here 

Good Morning all.

I hope I find yourselves and your Families well and prepared for what could for some in our Region, the first Snow of Winter.

I tend to agree with BLS above, I think the best locations for any Snowfall could be mid Kent, rather than the Thames Corridor.

I will now post up a charts from the 00z Model runs, in a bid to back that statement up.

But I'll first post up a couple of links to Radar Websites, that are particularly relevant in the current Synoptic set up we find ourselves in

Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar

Buienradar.nl - Buienradar.nl - Weer - Actuele neerslag, weerbericht, weersverwachting, sneeuwradar en satellietbeelden

They are a bit underwhelming at the moment but that is almost certainly doe to the fact that the coldest Upper Air [850hPa], hasn't arrived over the Southern North Sea, yet.

This isn't forecast to arrive, until around 9 A.M., still a couple of hours away.

To illustrate the point, I've chosen a chart from the 00z Arpege Model run, as they show 3 hourly situations: 

As you can see above, a lobe of -11c/-12c Upper Air is expected to enter the Southern North Sea, at 9 A,M. 

With a temperature differential of around +20C, this in theory should kickstart a more potent Streamer.

But I think we could be looking at a mid Kent Streamer, rather than a Thames Streamer.

Below, is a chart of the expected Steering Flow, at 9 A.M.:

To my eyes, that looks more N.E than E.N.E.

Therefore, I expect the "sweet spot" for any appreciable Snowfall to be the higher parts of mid Kent and East Sussex:

Places such as Sevenoaks. the Kentish Downs between Maidstone and Canterbury, and on into the High Weald of West Kent/East Sussex. 

In other words, areas S.E. of London, rather than my location in S.E. London.

But I'll finish with an example of a Thames Snow Streamer that did deliver, for where I was living at the time.

Those of you that can, cast your mind back to this exact date, 21 Years ago.

Below, are a few Synoptic memories of that event.

 / 

If memory serves I was staying with my Parents in Bromley Kent, at the time.

I vividly remember Weatherman Francis Wilson on BBC Breakfast time warning of the likelihood of a Thames type Streamer affecting the Thames Corridor and down into mid-Kent.

The Snowfall started around the early rush hour and by the time I left for work in Croydon [around 11 A.M.], there was around 2 inches of Snow on the ground, at my Parents House, in Bromley.

Below, is a Youtube clip of Peter Gibbs with a very Wintry Forecast for some parts of our Region, back then:

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Morning all, again. 

Whilst having my early Morning Breakfast, I was watching Simon Lee's Weather Forecast for the next few Days.

At this point I will post up a Youtube clip of the Met Office Forecast, from yesterday Evening presented by Greg Dewhurst:

Something Simon Lee alluded to was that Tomorrow Morning, there is a possibility as the flow turns more to the E.N.E., those hillier areas in N.W. Kent close to the London area, could see a little settling Snow but I wouldn't get too excited.

Below, are a few charts from the ECM 00z Run, for the UK.

As you can see a lobe of -10c/-12c looks to enter the Southern North Sea/Thames Estuary and with a temperature differential of around +20c, could well kickstart a Streamer Tomorrow Morning:

 /  

And with the Steering Flow turning a tad more to the E.N.E., any Shower "train" that does form, could well move across the Thames Corridor of South Essex, N.W. Kent and parts of East and South East London. 

If this Streamer does form it could give a little settling Snow over the hills of the North Downs, in N.W. Kent. 

But for some of us it would be the first Snow this Winter, although the small window of opportunity is likely to be very brief.

Over the next couple of Days terms such as "feels like" and windchill enter Forecasts, as the wind picks up over our Region.

Looking further ahead the area of High Pressure located over the North of the U.K., looks to strengthen and with it the threat of Shower activity, disappears.

Don't think there is any point in looking further than next Weekend but for the rest of the coming Week it looks to be dry, cold with the Winter hazards being some Frost and Fog but very little chance of Snow.

Just poked my head into the Model Discussion Thread but soon came out of it again, as it has descended into it's usual state of contradictory posting.

Regards,

Tom Q.   

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

9 hours ago, Hotspur62 said:

Things starting to look a little more interesting Monday into Tuesday for possible streamers.They won’t be as strong as some of the past as Tom has highlighted in the above posts recently but some in Kent,SE London ,parts of E Surrey and Sussex may get a light covering.Overall though next week fairly cold but dry with max temps in the 2-5 range and lows in the +1 to -4 range in clearer spells.After the last 2.5 months of continuous rain I will take that all day.Still likely that this time next week we could see temperatures fall a little further and snow threat increases but that is a long way off and we will know more by middle of next week.In meantime let’s see if some in this thread will see their local landscapes turn white early next week.Good luck to everyone

A very good Morning, all. 

Yes H62, I couldn't have summed up the current situation better myself.

And by the way H, I will get around to replying to your very kind P.M., regarding my recent health issues.

And as you are literally down the Road from my youngest Sister, who lives close to Farnborough Village, I will hear about it if it Snows there!!

The model Thread for our newest Members, must be a nightmare to try and decipher.

Having been a Member since late January 2005, I soon realised you had to sort the "wheat from the chaff", especially at this time of Year when there was a possibility of Snow, in the offing.

I find a lot of the posting that takes place at this time of the Year when there is a possibility of Snow, is just "hopecasting".

I only take notice of very few Posters, three of which are Members of our Region, notably the 2 Nicks [Finnis and ex S.E. Pat, Sussex], and Captain Shortwave.

I would also like to give a shout to our own EAGLE EYE.

I love E.E.'s enthusiasm for his favourite Weather types, and his incredible technical knowledge, for someone so young.

That wasn't meant to sound condescending E.E., I am genuinely impressed by your enthusiasm and knowledge, for Meteorology.  

I used to post a lot in the Model Discussion Thread but gave that up as a bad job, after I was accused of "Guilt Tripping" and when the very amenable S.E. Meteorologist Ian Currie was described as "some bloke off the Telly", by a respected Member of this Forum.

That couldn't be further from the truth, actually.

Although I havn't spoken to Ian recently, he was and maybe still is, an official Met Office observer.

Ian used to have 2 Weather Stations, when he lived in Old Coulsdon, Surrey. One in his back Garden, and One on his allotment, at the Frost Hollow of Chipstead Valley.

A few Years ago, Ian moved to Storrington in West Sussex, where as far as I know, he is still an official Met Office observer.

Ian is also a Member of the Royal Meteorological Society.

Therefore, with that sort of CV, I thought it was very disingenuous to describe  him as "some bloke off the Telly".

I'm sure the handful of our Region's Members that took advantage of his very generous offer, which included a copy of -

 and a few copies of his Quarterly Magazine - 

will have found their hobby in Meteorology greatly enhanced, as mine was back in the 1990's, when I first stumbled across a copy of the Kent Weather Book, when I was browsing at Books in W.H. Smiths in my home Town of Bromley.

Right, it's time for my Blood Pressure medication, and my early Morning Breakfast but I'll end this Post with a couple of links to Radar Websites.

The first being Meteox:

Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar

The second being Buienradar:

Buienradar.nl - Buienradar.nl - Weer - Actuele neerslag, weerbericht, weersverwachting, sneeuwradar en satellietbeelden

As I expected with a steering flow of N.E,, it's the East of Kent that is in the firing line for a Streamer, we're not in Thames Streamer Territory, the steering flow needs to be specifically from the E.N.E., for those of us that live in the Thames Corridor area. Specifically, South Essex, North Kent and on into East and South East London and when they are very potent, they can infiltrate much further W.S.W.

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, pinball wizard said:

Looks like dewpoint temperature is starting to fall, potentially first signs of the colder air moving in from the East. Worth comparing these temps with a few hours as it will hopefully show when any showers are going to start turning more snowy. See map below which can be accessed from the 'Live' section of Netweather 

 

Good Evening, all.

Southern North Sea, starting to fire up:

Rain radar & weather forecast | Meteoradar

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Morning all!

Figured I'd venture across from the Mod thread now that we're getting closer to seeing some snowflakes in our region. Monday continues to be of interest with the potential for a weak Thames/Kent streamer to develop. The most aggressive modelling on this only suggests 2-3cm at most so I don't think we'll be seeing much, if any for most. 

But.. worth keeping an eye on! AROME will be of interest when it comes into range in the next day or so.

A very good Morning, all.

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

As M4C states above, Monday is providing a little interest.

Below, is the 06z ICON take on the situation at 15z on Monday Afternoon:

850hPa [Upper Air] temps of around -10c/-11c, with S.S,T.'s [Sea Surface Temps] in the Southern North Sea of around +8, will give a temperature differential approaching 20c. The Model breaks out evidence of a slight NE > SW Streamer, with a steering Wind of between NE and ENE. 

 /  / 

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a weak Wintry Streamer develop.

Whether any Snow that fell would be actually heavy enough to settle, is open to question.

I remember commenting on the S.E. Forum a few Years ago, Once the 850 temps are favourable + steering flow, just sit back and watch the interaction between those 850 temps and those S.S.T.'s, provide some interest.

I'm not sure of the exact Year but back then conditions looked very favourable for a potent N.E. Snow Streamer to form and give some heavy and at times prolonged Snow Showers from Mid-Kent > East Sussex, only for some overhang of cloud from a Warm Front over N.E. France/S. North Sea, scuppered any Convection from firing,

Having skimmed through quite a few of the Posts on the Model Thread aster the 00z Model Runs, it seems like the ECM Model, was the villain of the peace!!

Monday's very small window of opportunity, in my opinion, is just that. Don't think it's quite time to get the Sledges out, just yet but interesting nevertheless.   

Before I end this post, I would also like to thank the following S.E. Members -  Vortex3929, Lottiekent and Chilly Juju, along with those Members I mentioned yesterday Evening, for their kind and thoughtful words, regarding my recent diagnosis of Prostate Cancer. Thank you all. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

Thanks Tom sorry to hear your plagued with another health issue. I've been working at Sidcup lately maybe see you around. Latest models showing some light convection for our part of the world with atleast -10c 850s Monday/Tuesday

A very good Evening, all.

Much thanks to Snow Queen one, Methuselah, Froze were the Days, pinball wizard, and Kentspur, for your kind messages above.

Yes, I'm determined to remain positive and treatment for Prostate Cancer, has come on leaps and bounds, in the last few Years.

I've had a pep talk from my eldest Sister, who used to be a Secretary in the Radiology at the Sloane Hospital, in Beckenham and confirmed that a diagnosis of P.C. is not so much "doom and gloom", as it was a few Years ago.

As I had a near fatal Haemorrhagic Stroke in Sept. 2015, removal of my Prostate Gland will not be the likely route to recovery. 

I'm much more likely to have an intensive course of Radiotherapy, every Day for 6 to 8 Weeks, beginning later on in January.

That's the reason for once in my Life, I don't want to see too much Snow. Sidcup is quite a bit colder than where my Wife and myself live. 

Speaking of the Weather, it looks as if there will be a bit of a "false Dawn", regarding the beginning of the predicted Cold Spell.

I've taken the statement below, from the Met Office Website: 

Steven Keates is a Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster. He said: “The colder conditions across the UK are likely to be established for some time and will be a key theme of next week’s weather. However, the beginning of next week is likely to see the lowest temperatures of this colder spell, and by the end of next week we should start to see a gradual rise in values, at least for a time.”

To my untrained eye, it does look as if any noticeable Cold is likely to come from the North, rather than the East.

And we know from experience for the majority of our Region, that's not a great direction for Snow, courtesy of the dreaded "Wishbone Effect" - , with the majority of any possible Sleet/Snow Showers, eventually pecking away at North facing Coastal areas,

If some very cold air could become entrenched our Region's best chance of any appreciable Snow, may come courtesy of a Channel type Low Pressure system riding up against the embedded cold, as it approaches from the South West in time.

I'll end this post with a Youtube clip of the extended Met Office Forecast, courtesy of Alex Deakin: 

Oh dear, there seems to be a lot of toys being thrown out of prams and recriminations, on the Mad Thread after the 12z Model runs. Mmm, little sign of High Pressure retrogressing to Greenland but more a case of some Members retrogressing to their childhoods!! 

At the moment the Form Horse appears to be an area of High Pressure located close to the North of the U.K., with not much of a signal for anything Wintry, falling from the Sky. There doesn't seem much appetite for a "Beast from the East" type scenario, currently.

Looks like a case of "Faux Cold" for a while, with some Frost and Fog about.

But at least it will give our Region a chance to dry out, after such a wet start to 2024, courtesy of those "Pests from the West".

Regards,

Tom Q.   

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

A very good Morning, all. 

Hope I find yourselves and your Families well, and that you havn't been affected by flooding after the recent heavy rainfall.

My attention now turns to the anticipated Cold Spell that has been "flagged up", in Forecast Outlooks.

It's been a while since I've been able to post about my "Pet Subject". That being "Thames Snow Streamers", which have been notably absent in recent Januarys.

Although in this January, my interest is tempered by the knowledge that I will need to have an intensive course of Radiotherapy after a diagnosis of Prostate Cancer, a Week before Christmas. I've already had a Telephone Consultation cancelled with an Oncologist due to the pressure on the Lewisham/Greenwich NHS Trust, in part due to the Junior Doctor's strike. 

My course of Radiotherapy will be conducted at Queen Mary's Hospital, Sidcup.

Should the Weather become Wintry as we head further into January, road conditions out in that area could become very tricky, and cause me problems getting to and from Sidcup.

I just want to post up some examples of notable "Thames Snow Streamer" events that have affected our Region, in the last few Decades.

Firstly, a Wikipedia explanation of the dynamics of how these "Snow Streamer" events, develop

"Lake-effect snow is produced during cooler atmospheric conditions when a cold air mass moves across long expanses of warmer lake water. The lower layer of air, heated by the lake water, picks up water vapor from the lake and rises through colder air. The vapor then freezes and is deposited on the leeward (downwind) shores.

The same effect also occurs over bodies of saline water, when it is termed ocean-effect or bay-effect snow. The effect is enhanced when the moving air mass is uplifted by the orographic influence of higher elevations on the downwind shores. This uplifting can produce narrow but very intense bands of precipitation, which deposit at a rate of many inches of snow each hour, often resulting in a large amount of total snowfall."

Now, how the same process can affect our Region, and One that affects the N.W. of England. 

UNITED KINGDOM

"In the United Kingdom, easterly winds bringing cold continental air across the North Sea can lead to a similar phenomenon. Locally, it is also known as "lake-effect snow" despite the snow coming in from the sea rather than a lake. Similarly during a north-westerly wind, snow showers can form coming in from the Liverpool Bay, coming down the Cheshire gap, causing snowfall in the West Midlands—this formation resulted in the white Christmas of 2004 in the area, and most recently the heavy snowfall of 8 December 2017 and 30 January 2019.

The best-known example occurred in January 1987, when record-breaking cold air (associated with an upper low) moved across the North Sea towards the UK. The result was over 2 ft of snow for coastal areas, leading to communities being cut off for over a week. The latest of these events to affect Britain's east coast occurred on November 30, 2017; February 28, 2018; and March 17, 2018; in connection with the 2018 Great Britain and Ireland cold wave.The second event of winter 2017/18 was particularly severe, with up to 27.5 inches (70 cm) falling in total over the 27th–28th."

Currently, the Sea Surface Temperature of the Coast of Southend-on-Sea is, 8.9°C.

Below, is the UKMO Forecast Chart [500hPa] for Mon. 8th January, with the accompanying Upper Air [850hPa] Forecast Chart, for Midnight. This would give a temperature differential of around 16C between the Upper Air and the Southern North Sea but with Air Pressure of between 1035mbs and 1030 mbs, should be too high to allow any convection, to develop.

 / 

Now, a few examples of more conducive Synoptics that allowed some more notable Snowfall events, for our Region.

The most notable of these has to be the widespread and heavy Snowfalls that affected our Region, in January 1987.

With Upper Air [850hPa] close to around -20C over the Southern North Sea and a Sea Surface Temperature of around +8C. 

With a Temperature differential of around 28C, it was no wonder that the Snowfall was so heavy. More like a Sea of Snow, than a Streamer!!

  / 

Now, what was my first recollection of a "Thames Snow Streamer" event, and one that was to give a "White Christmas" for some parts of our Region and a huge crack of Thunder, in the early hours of Christmas Morning, 1970:  

 / 

The following "Thames Snow Streamer" was the subject of an excellent Thread in the Historic Weather Forum, by our own, DANM. 

 / 

Below, is a Youtube clip of Peter Gibbs with the Morning Forecast, depicting that "Thames Snow Streamer", moving across our Region, during the Morning of 8th January 2003:

Two final notable "Thames Snow Streamer" events that gave some appreciable Snowfalls, for our Region,

Firstly, on 1st/2nd February 2009.

The temperature differential between Upper Air [850hPa] and the Southern North Sea would have been around 25C.

This event also gave "Thunder Snow" in the East of our Region, including my location.

 / 

Finally, the infamous  event, in late February 2018.

Below, are the 500hPa and 850hPa [Upper Air] charts for the early Evening of 26th February.

This would have given a rough temperature differential between the Southern North Sea and the Upper Air of around the mid +20'sC:

 / 

I hope for the newest members of our Region the above will partly explain why these Synoptics and "Thames Snow Streamer" events in particular for some in our Region are the "Holy Grail" in the Months of Meteorological Winter, and what to look out for, if you're wanting a repetition of something sinilar.

Now, I realise I've probably gone and "jinxed" the chances of some long overdue January Snowfall for our Region but as I mentioned at the start of this post, my interest is tempered by my current health issues, anyway.

Regards,

Tom Q.   

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

One old wives’ tale suggests that thunder in the winter means there will be snow within a week to 10 days. Another says thunder in January means there will be a crop-killing frost early in the fall. Another January thunder tale predicts great floods for the month of June.

 

I had thunder a few days ago, so now i am expecting snow within the next 10 days lol

Interesting, Lass.

I think I heard more Thunder in the Spring and Autumn just gone, than in the whole of last Summer.

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 hour ago, BB1979 said:

Lightning app showing multiple flashes in Bromley but I’m not seeing or hearing anything

Evening all.

Mmm, there used to be a lot of flashing going on in my home Town, especially on Bromley Common, so I was told. 

Heard one rumble of Thunder here in Lee, at around that time.

It is January 3rd Today, isn't it?

If Lassie reads this, is there a J.T.I [January Thunder Index], and what does it mean for the rest of Winter, Lass?

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

A very good Evening, all.  

Hope I find yourselves and your Families well, and that you havn't all been blown away.

Crikey, talk about 2024 coming in like a lion.

Got rudely woken up from my necessary Afternoon nap by Storm Henk, at around 3.15.

While I was asleep my Wife informed that the fence in our back garden, has been blown down, and a similar fate has befallen the fencing that runs along the side of our Close, and umpteen Wheelie Bins have been relocated.

Did wonder if the wind was courtesy of the amount of Brussel Sprouts myself and 'er indoors, had eaten over the Festive period!1

The wind was constantly playing "knock down ginger", with our letter box.

Gave up on any more sleep, and let the wind win this battle, as it was just a bit of the following:

Did wonder if the knocking of the letter box, was a very late Amazon delivery for some A4 plastic wallets that I'd ordered a few Months, ago. 

But figured that ship had "sailed away", up that great Brazilian River.

Speaking of which, the Amazon isn't as long as it's South American Cousin, the Orinoco.

Now, another gratuitous Youtube link to Enya, eulogising about that great River, and because she looks like 'er indoors when the Wife had short hair:

We've heard a lot about Cyclogenesis lately and Henk has been another product of that, as it barrelled  its way across the U.K.

I see the excitement is still approaching fever pitch, at the possibility of a Wintry spell of Weather, as we go deeper into January.

Even the Met Office are making some uncharacteristically bullish comments in their long range outlooks, in that direction: 

UK long range weather forecast

Sunday 7 Jan - Tuesday 16 Jan

Into Sunday and the new week broadly settled conditions quite widely across the country, with colder conditions and some frosty nights (perhaps becoming widespread and severe in time). Initially there are still likely to be some showers, especially around windward coasts in the east, but in general most areas start to see longer, more settled spells develop. Occasional unsettled spells are still possible later in the period, but these generally much more regionalised, and infrequent than of late. As temperatures fall, the chance of any precipitation falling as sleet and snow increases, particularly over high ground and especially over northern parts of the UK, but not exclusively so by any means. As well as frost and ice by night, some freezing fog is likely to develop as well.

Wednesday 17 Jan - Wednesday 31 Jan

Compared to normal, there is an increased chance of colder than average conditions during this period. Currently the chance of widespread severe cold is still deemed low, but still the risk of impacts from cold, including ice and snow is greater than normal. It is likely to be drier than recent weeks, but what does fall is more likely to be of a wintry nature. While there is a chance of brief, unsettled spells, which would bring milder air for a time, it would likely also be accompanied by a period of sleet or snow. However, when, or even if, this would happen is very uncertain, and overall the main theme will be much more in the way of settled conditions through this period.

Therefore, a bit of Cyclogenesis may be necessary for lovers of Snow, if you'll be wanting to get out and enjoy the Wintry landscapes.

Speaking of  CycloGenesis, my last gratuitous Youtube music link and Phil Collins with some White 'fella:

As I will be having an intensive course of Radiotherapy around mid January for a recent Prostate Cancer diagnosis and will be hoping for reasonable travel conditions, a "Beast from the East" Snowmageddon scenario is no doubt certain to happen!!

Right, that's enough of my Post Christmas, 3 for 1 Youtube Music sale.

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Or to all non speaking Italians,  a Happy New Year to all my fellow South Easterners.

As we are unlikely to see scenes like we had on New Year's Day 1979, across our Region - 

For all you Snow Lovers out there, surely this is how New Year's Day should look, without the War of course!!:

Very best wishes,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

A very good Afternoon, my fellow South Easterners.

"Long time, no post."

I hope I find yourselves and your Families well and that you all had a nice Christmas. 

I've had better, to be honest, and I'm beginning to dread them coming around.

A week before Christmas, I was informed that I had Prostate Cancer and a Week before Christmas 2008, my beautiful first Wife, passed away.

But I'm very lucky to have a very good Lady in my current Wife, by my side to help me get through the next few Months of intensive treatment, which is likely to involve a long course of Radiotherapy.

'Er indoors was a former Senior Carer in a local Residential Care Home, so is well versed in caring for ailing Geriatrics!!

I really wish as a Snow Lover I had a Time Machine and could set the dial for Saturday 30th December, 1978.

Below, is the Synoptic situation that would have greeted me, that Evening:

         18Z 30th December 1978                                00Z 31st December 1978                          06Z 31st December 1978

                    

And below is an account of the Severe Snowstorm that affected our Region, on the Evening of 30th/31st December, 1978, that I posted, a few Years ago: 

"This event has long been etched in the memory, I was 23 at the time and had been a lover of snow, for many years. I can remember seeing the daily forecasts, as if it were yesterday. A succession of low pressure systems following an ever more southerly track, across the Atlantic, as pressure built over Greenland, between Xmas and the New Year. I vaguely remember the forecast for Sat.30th, mentioning a possible rain to snow event but think we had some early morning rain, followed by a drier spell. Went to work but was struck by an increasingly bitter wind picking up during the late afternoon. Went for a drink with some colleagues after work, in Dulwich, S.E.London. On leaving the pub, on route to another, at around 9 p.m, the wind had picked up further and the first few flurries of granular type snow, had already started to drift across the roads. On leaving our next drinking hole, the snow had already accumulated above the kerb level, very unusual for an Inner London Borough. A colleague managed to give me a lift back to Bromley (London/Kent border), the journey, which would normally take just over half an hour, took an hour extra. Conditions were far worse out there too, with pretty considerable drifting and I could not differentiate the path, from our garden, getting on for 6" in places but difficult to measure due to the amount of drifting, drifts were far deeper in places."

Without doubt the worst conditions I've ever encountered, in the Bromley area, for the combination of high winds and heavy drifting snow." 

Those handful of S.E. Regional members that took up S.E. Meteorologist Ian Currie's very generous offer, which included a copy of the Kent County Weather Book, would have no doubt read the account of the Severe Winter of 1978/79, which became known as the "Winter of Discontent" and will have seen the following image, which was typical of some parts of the East of our Region.

This was the scene at the Village of Grain, on the Hoo Peninsular and close to the River Medway in Kent, in early January 1979:

Not looking at all Wintry in our Region this time around, is it?: 

                       

Whatever the Weather, a very Happy New Year, to you all.

Very best wishes,

Tom Q. and Mrs T.Q.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 hours ago, Snow tyre said:

Good luck, Tom, with your test. Hope you aren't too sore this morning. Aching nuts is much worse than numb ones. Back to weather - if anyone thinks it hass been a bit wet, it has rained here 20 out of the last 30 days! We have had 136mm of rain in that time, or or over 5 1/4 inches in old money. Now that's nuts!

Good Morning, all. 

Much thanks for those kind words, Snow tyre.

They seem to be less sore this Morning, now thinking of roasting 'em for Christmas!!

And back to the Weather myself,  I see that GFS 12z tease that Ali [Snowangel-MK] posted Yesterday Evening is now just a fleeting memory!!

 / 

The GFS 06z looks a Christmas Day "Bore Fest" Think roasting my nuts, will be infinitely more interesting. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

3 hours ago, Vortex3929 said:

Like others have said, so very dark today and so, so much rain! I was expecting to see an ark sail by the window at one point. Anyone got Noah's number just incase? 

Praying for good news in the results as well Mr Q! Keep us posted

 

3 hours ago, Harry's House said:

I pray good news too. I will have my annual PSA test later this winter.

Good Evening all.

Hope I find  yourselves and your Families, well. 

No more Thunder to report for the rest of the Afternoon, here in S.E. London.

Much thanks to VORTEX3929 and HARRY'S HOUSE, for their kind messages above.

The very best of luck with your PSA Test H.H., later this Winter.

I was expecting the Prostate Gland Biopsy to be much more painful but the NHS Staff at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital at Woolwich, were all brilliant. You're given an Anaesthetic before the procedure starts in the Prostate Gland area and as it worked, for a while I could be described as "Numb Nuts". I'll get the result of the Biopsy back at Woolwich. on Tuesday.

I now have a Colonoscopy on Saturday Morning at Lewisham Hospital, after a "sample" I provided after one of those D-I-Y Bowel screening kits, came through the post and as I hadn't done one before, as I'm in my late '60s thought I should provide one.

'Er indoors helped me with providing the sample. Who said romance was dead??

Not overly concerned though as I'm cultivating a "bunch of grapes", down below and that might have been the reaso0n for a little blood. Hope you've all enjoyed your Evening meals!! Lol.

I'm more concerned about going without food from 9 A.M. Friday Morning until after the Colonoscopy, 24 hours later.

I've also been warned to not stray far from the Loo, after taking the "evacuating" powders that I will have to take at 6 P.M./9 P.M., on Friday Evening. Both my Wife and eldest Sister have had a Colonoscopy, it isn't painful but just a strange sensation, although the  "evacuating" powders have an explosive effect, on yourself.

As I stated above, hope you've all enjoyed your Evening meals!! 

The strange thing about that huge crack of "gunshot" Thunder earlier this Afternoon, was I saw no Lightning with it.

It was literally a "bolt from the blue", with no sign of the bolt? 

But it certainly shook our House, to it's foundations. It is December is it?

Ironically just before it occurred, I had been posting about a Thunder Snow event that occurred in the early hours of Christmas Morning 1970, during a very lively Thames Snow Streamer event, which gave a fall of 4 inches during Christmas and Boxing Day, that Year.

Now that's the sort of Thunder I don't mind hearing, when it's accompanied by a decent Snowfall, as happened in the Thames Snow Streamer event of February 1st/2nd February, 2009.

This what I call a "bolt from the blue":

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[Storms and Convective discussion - November 2023 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Yep same here in Beckenham...

About 15 minutes ago, we had the loudest crack of Thunder here in Lee, that I've heard in a very long time. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

4 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

After heavy rain stopped here at 7.25 this morning we had a dry spell till about 11am when the heavens opened and had 2 rumbles of thunder about 11.30 along with the rain.Had a slight lull in the rain but it’s come back hard again in last 10 mins and had another rumble of thunder 2 mins ago.Its so dark as well.Currently 7.8 degrees so not too cold but that’s about the only positive!!

Just had the loudest crack of Thunder I've heard here in Lee, for a very long time.

Not great for this Brontophobe and has added to my stress after experiencing a Prostate Gland Biopsy Yesterday, for suspected Cancer.

Regards,

Tom Q.