[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Good Morning all,

Sammy Snowman here and he hopes that he finds yourselves and your Families, well. 

Sammy would now like to post up some more details regarding, Tomorrow's 1st Leg Winter Season 2022/23 Play-Off between -

Purple Blob Rovers and Sammy Snowman Utd.

Firstly as stated yesterday Evening, the S.T.D. [Synoptic Transfer Deadline/Switching Teleconnection Deadline], expired at Midnight.

Utd have completed their audacious swoop on -

   -  Jethro Jetstream the All American Boy [aka,The Pest from the West]., in a bid to to bifurcate him. but due to the late signing, he will not be eligible to "play" for Utd, until the 2nd Leg on Saturday, 25th February.

In a surprise move, F.I.F.A. [Fantasy Island Fanatics Association], have allowed Utd to move their 2nd Leg Play-Off Match to a different venue, to the one originally chosen. It will no longer be played in the Mediterranean Basin but at the home of - 

  -  Scandy Mandy the Scandinavian High,

That being above the Gulf of Bothnia, between Finland and Sweden - 

Utd are hoping to maximise the support of their own fans, and give them a chance of turning the Tie around, should Tomorrow's 1st Leg look to give them a "Mountain [probably Snowless] to climb", 

Both Legs of the Play-Off have been a sell-out. Rovers were allocated 40.000 tickets for their Home Leg Tomorrow, with 20,000 tickets going to Utd's fans. The reverse is true of the 2nd Leg, above the Gulf of Bothnia.

Now for the latest Team news.

Expected to make a reappearance for Rovers, will be the fickle Peruvian Gangster's moll -  - LA NINA.

Both sides will evidently be at full strength Tomorrow at Kick-Off, 00z on the American model, G.F.S. [Go Freeze Satan], and the European model, E.C.M.W.F. [Every Coldies Morning Winter Fantasy].

It should come as no surprise that being half Italian, the Manager of Sammy Snowman Utd, has elected to field a very defensive iineup.

SVARLBAD SVEN - and SCANDY MANDY will be expected to keep a close eye on Rovers Captain and Manager -

PERNICIOUS VICTOR [aka Polar Vortex]. Meanwhile,  - GENOVESE MO [the Genoa Low], will be looking to send -

 - BARBARA the BARTLETT HIGH/EUNICE the EURO SLUG, to sleep with da fishes!! Good luck with that, Mo.

F.I.F.A. have announced a change to the Match Officials.

Rovers have been allowed to nominate the 1st Leg Referee, which will be - MUSHYMANROB.

Running the lines will be - ROGER J.SMITH C.E.T. [i] [Canadian Excitement Threshold [index]] and continuing the International flavour -

the other line will be the responsibility of - SEBASTIAN1973 [Our Dutch Stratosphere Guru].

Our 2 neutral Nicks, FINNIS and SUSSEX, will be our S.A.R.s [Synoptic Assistant Recorders], for both Legs, of the Play-Off.  

Sammy Snowman Utd have chosen  - BLAST FROM the PAST, to referee the 2nd Leg above the Gulf of Bothnia, set to take place, Tomorrow Week.

In a short while, Sammy will return with a report on the likely Weather conditions above the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] corridor, for Tomorrow's 1st Leg, of the Winter Season 2022/23 Play-Off and a bit more analysis from Roy Uninterested and Ian Wrong-Wrong-Wrong and the Format, for both Legs of the Play-Off decider.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.    

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Good Evening all,

Sammy Snowman here and he hopes that he finds yourselves and your Families, well. 

 -  

Mark Poopatch, on behalf of Irrelevant Tactical Versions will now present the Play-Off "Match" between -

PURPLE BLOB ROVERS and SAMMY SNOWMAN UTD, accompanied by Synoptic analysts -

 - Roy Uninterested and -  - Ian Wrong-Wrong-Wrong. 

with colouring pencil predictions from Julien the Juvenile, and his -

    - M. J. O. [Maddening Juvenile Obsession]  chart and his -

  - E.P.F.[Early  Prediction Flexible] charts.

Latest "Team" news from Purple Blob Rovers and Sammy Snowman Utd.

Rovers have been training at their Baffin Island base camp -

 and have had a couple of warm up [cool down] Matches against local League sides -

St. John's Synoptic Saints, down un Newfoundland and Nuuk Northerners, over in Greenland.

Meanwhile, United have been training as their base camp, high in the French Alps, at Meribel -

It was here that Sammy and his colleagues "bumped" into Mr. Malcolm,, for a bit of non alcoholic [obvious;y], "Apres  Ski"   

Obviously, there is a lot of "dosh" to be made, at this moderating lark!! Only joking, Malcolm.

Sammy and his "Team" popped over to Switzerland to "play" against a St. Moritz Synoptics X1.

Then then made the short journey across the border with Italy, to "play" local league side, Courmayeur Casuals.

These warm up [cool down] "Matches" are to give both "Teams a bit of Synoptic confidence heading into the 1st Leg of the Play-Off, which will take place, this Saturday between 00z and 12z G.F.S [Go Freeze Satan] and the 00z and 12z ECMWF [Evey Coldies Morning Winter Fantasy], Forecast runs. By that time, there should be very little if any difference, between the American and European Models, therefore no unfair advantage, should be gained.

Uninterested and "Wrongie"  both agree that on current form,

Rovers will certainly be favourites to take a lead in the Home Leg of the Play-Off, over the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway], corridor.

Sammy Snowman Utd will be looking to limit any Synoptic advantage gained by Rovers, to give them a chance of overturning the aggregate possession gained by Purple Blob Rovers, in their Home Leg over the Mediterranean Basin, on Saturday 25th February.

Tomorrow Morning, Pernicious Victor [aka Polar Vortex] and Sammy Snowman will publish their "Team" sheet for this coming Saturday's, 1st Leg.

Meanwhile, Sammy will post up the Format/Rule for this much eagerly awaited, Winter Season 2022/23 decider.

There will also be more punditry from, Uninterested and Wrongie. 

This preview programme was brought to you by Acronyms 'R Us and Greggs the Bakers, official Sponsors of -

F.I.F.A's [Fantasy Island Fanatics Association],Winter Season 2022/23 Play-Off.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.        

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Good Morning all,

Sammy Snowman here and he hopes that he finds yourselves and your Families, well. 

Sammy would like to return to his previous post, and the rather confusing content, of it.

This concerns the details of I.T,V.'s [Irrelevant Tactical Visions] coverage, of the Play-Off between -

Purple Blob Rovers and Sammy Snowman Utd.

QUOTE: 

"The 1st Leg will be "played" on Sat. 18th February, with the 2nd Leg to be "played" on Sat. 25th February."

"ITV will be screening their Play-Off preview programme on Sunday 19th February, at 8 P,M."

Sammy realises that it is utterly pointless to have a preview programme, after the 1st Leg, has been "played".

Therefore,  - Mark Poopatch, on behalf of Irrelevant Tactical Versions will present the Play-Off preview programme,

Tonight at 8 P.M., accompanied by top pundits - 

the "bearded one" -  Roy Uninterested and -  Ian Wrong-Wrong-Wrong. 

They will also be joined by Julien the Juvenile, who will be given some crayons to scribble on the -

  - Maddening Juvenile Obsession chart, with the hope of predicting the Winner, of the Play-Off "Match".

 

As  S.K.Y.'s  [Synoptic Know-All Yuppies] Synoptic Channel reported that the S.T.D. [ Switching Teleconnection Deadline/Synoptic Transfer Deadline], expired at Midnight.   

As Sammy stated a few Days ago, United have already lost the services of the very fickle, Peruvian Gangster's Moll -

 La Nina., After a dazzling start to the Winter Season in early December, has been tempted to join Purple Blob Rovers, for the end of Season, Play-Off. Pernicious Victor [aka Polar Vortex], the narcissistic Owner/Manager/Player of Rovers tempted La Nina to sign for Rovers, by promising to pay for her Wedding to Bully Boy fiance -

It's common knowledge that the fickle La Nina has an uncooperative, rear end -

 - But careful fellas, not sure Signor Nino will appreciate you staring at his Fiancee's rear end!!

 

But to limit the effect of losing her services, Sammy Snowman Utd are in the process of completing the signing of - 

 - Jethro Jetstream the All American Boy [aka,The Pest from the West]., in a bid to to bifurcate him and unleash United's most feared Striker - . The Beast from the East, courtesy of -

 - Scandy Mandy the Scandinavian High,

Should that not develop, then Sammy Snowman Utd, may have to make do with a -

 - The Dwarf from the North,

as long as he can stay on the Synoptic Charts [pitch], a bit longer, than he normally does,

At least Sammy suggests he would be a far better option than a visit from - 

 Barbara the Bartlett High /Eunice the Euro Slug.

So, be sure to tune in at 8 P.M. Tonight, for ITV.'s Play-Off preview programme with Mark Poopatch, and the rest of the Team.

Bye for now,

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.          

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Sammy Snowman here again,

with details of F.I.F.A,'s Play-Off Match, to decide the winner of the 2022/23, Winter Season.

The Play-Off will be a 2 legged affair.

The 1st Leg will be "played" on Sat. 18th February, with the 2nd Leg to be played on Sat. 25th February.

The 2 Teams - PURPLE BLOB ROVERS, will play SAMMY SNOWMAN UNITED. 

Rovers won the toss and have elected to "play" the 1st Leg at Home ", over the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] corridor.

The 2nd Leg will be "played" over the Mediterranean Basin, home of United's "no nonsense" defender - 

 -  Genovese Mo, the Genoa Low.

Both venues are now home to a 60,000 all seater Stadium, Both Legs of the Play-Off have already sold their quota of Match tickets. 

40K of tickets going to supporters of the Home Team and 20k of tickets, going to the supporters of the Away Team.

The catering rights have been awarded to Greggs the Bakers. Those in the cheap seats will be able to get a Meat Pie or a Cornish Pasty, whilst those able to afford a ticket in the V.I.P. [Vastly Inflated Personality] Lounge, will be able to purchase Avocado and Prawn Sandwiches.   

Unfortunately, those greedy "beggars" at S.K.Y.[Synoptic Know-all Yuppies], have bought the exclusive rights to broadcast both Legs of the Play--Off, which means it will be a P.P.V. [Poor People Victimised], event.

There is a rumour that S.K.Y. have resurrected their Football punditry duo of -

Richard "hairy hands" Keys -  and Andy Gray -  to front their Play-Off coverage.

But I.T.V. [Irrelevant Tactical Visions], will be broadcasting a Play-Off preview programme.

This will be hosted by - 

 - Mark Poopatch.

 He will be joined by analysts, the "bearded one" -

   - Roy Uninterested and -  - Ian Wrong-Wrong-Wrong.

ITV have also hired the Teenage Son of one of their Staff, to mirror South African mollusc -

 - Ollie the Octopus, in an attempt to mirror Ollie's psychic ability, to forecast the result, of important Matches.

This Young Lad [Julien the Juvenile], will be given some crayons to scribble on the -

 - Maddening Juvenile Obsession chart, on the wall of I.T.V.'s studio.

Julien the Juvenile has promised to keep his crayons away from the C.O.D. [Catastrophic Orifice [of] Disaster], in favour of the more beneficial phases, of the M.J.O. 

Those of you that can afford S.K.Y.'s Synoptic Channel, where both Legs of the Play-Off will be screened Live, will have probably noticed a box in the top left hand corner of the screen, with the letters S.T.D. and a clock counting down the time.

This doesn't mean that Sammy and his friends are about to contract a nasty disease but is counting down the time until the -

Switching Teleconnection Deadline/Synoptic Transfer Deadline, expires.

This deadline expires on Weds. 15th February and all transfer of Synoptics/Teleconnections, have to be completed by this date.

As Sammy stated a few Days ago, United have already lost the services of the very fickle, Peruvian Gangster's Moll -

 - La Nina.

But to limit the effect of losing her services, have made an outrageous bid to sign, in an attempt to bifurcate -

 - Jethro Jetstream.

Finally, just a word on the Match Officials, that F.I.F.A. have appointed to officiate, at the 2 Play-Offs:

REFEREE - Nick "Two Homes" Sussex. Obviously there is "dosh" to be made, in this Synoptic Refereeing lark!!

Only joking, Nick.

LINESMAN ONE - Roger J. Smith. Got the "Gig" for his sterling work in the C.E,T. [Current Excitement Threshold] Index Thread.

LINESMAN TWO -  Sebastian1973. Mentioned in dispatches for his work in the S.P.V. [Stop Pernicious Victor] Thread.

Our S.A.R [Synoptic Accounting Recorder], for both Play-Offs -  - Nick Finnis.

ITV will be screening their Play-Off preview programme on Sunday 19th February, at 8 P,M.

So, make a date in your diaries and join Poopatch, Uninterested, Wrong-Wrong-Wrong and Julien the Juvenile, when they preview this mouth watering, Play-Off decider.

**This Programme will be brought to you by - A.'R.U. [Acronyms 'R Us], C.F.S. [Coldies Fantasy Synoptics] and Greggs the Bakers, official sponsors of F.I.F.A.'s Winter Season 2022/23 Play-Offs**.

In a few Days time, Sammy will post up more details of the Format/Rules for the Winter Season 2022/23 Play-Offs and Team news from Purple Blob Rovers base camp, on Baffin Island and his own Sammy Snowman United from their base camp. high in the French Alps.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.    

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Good Morning all,

Sammy Snowman here, and I hope myself - 

and Wife Samantha - , find yourselves and your Families, well. 

I'd like to apologise for my non appearance over the last few Days but those very important negotiations between U.S.D.A.W [Union [of] Snowmen Distributed Around [the] World], for whom I'm chief negotiator, and the E.U.S. [European Union [of] Snowmen], have reached a crucial juncture. 

I've been protesting/picketing with our Members, regarding those very unfair and draconian beliefs that the powers that be want to impose Zero Hours Contracts on my Synoptic, allies.   

I'm pleased to say that more and more of our Union Members have expressed their intention to take Industrial action, over these harsh measures. This can be seen from the image of my voting intention Spreadsheets, below:

  / / 

I have also been assisting the Author, with his Winter Horse Racing Competition. 

It's not a well known fact but before I became Chief Negotiator for U.S.D.A.W., I was a pretty successful Snowman Jockey.

Below, is a Youtube clip of the last Race I won, before the constant Freeze/Thaw dieting, took a terrible toll on my body. 

When a Snowman Jockey gets to look like this -

, you know it's time to retire and seek out, a desk job.

In a short while, I will post up details of the Winter Season 2022/23 Play-Off Match called for by F.I.F.A [Fantasy Island Fanatics Association], to once and for all end the debate regarding who took the honours for this Winter, the Coldies of the Mildies.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.     

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm nae sure I've the figure quite right, but I think it was only about 30% or so of GEFS ensembles members that were going with the beast... Too much daft ramping, methinks?

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

Yes Pete, as I mentioned in my Post last Evening, both Ben Rich in his MeteoGroup Weather for the Week Ahead Forecast and Aidan McGivern in his 10 Day Trend for the Met Office, suggested these sort of percentage chances, for a cold Easterly sourced flow.

As Mr McGivern mentioned in his Forecast only about 10% of the ECM Ensemble Members, went for a cold Easterly sourced flow.

Unfortunately, the Forecast Models Weather Bingo caller hasn't called in Perturbation numbers, 23, 26, 35 and 36. I've just noticed that 35 was so good, that I "named it twice". Apologies for my dodgy minces!!

You may recall that Ben Rich, once he had stopped fidgeting, also mentioned that the GFS runs from Yesterday, were an extreme solution of how the Synoptic pattern would resemble, by the time we arrived at the middle of next Week and that the likely scenario was a sort of middle ground, between the American [GFS], and the European Models [ECM/UKMO]. There is just about too much "juice" in the Polar Vortex around the Greenland area, to allow heights to gain a foothold, over Scandinavia. Below, are the 12z Op runs for ECM, GFS and UKMO:

    12z ECM Weds. 8th Feb. [t144]            12z GFS Weds. 8th Feb. [t144]          12z UKMO Weds. 8th Feb. [t144]

   

After being wildly out of kilter with it's European counterparts for a number of Days, the American Model has now backed down with all Three broadly, "singing from the same Hymn sheet".  

Let's have a look at the extended outlook from the Met Office, this Evening courtesy of Alex Deakin. Alex seems to have borrowed Aidan McGivern's, rather loud shirt. Obviously the Meto are cutting costs, by scrapping Forecaster's clothes allowance!!. Are we about to see legions of Met Office Forecasters, going out on Strike??:

Meanwhile, "Fidgety Ben" [Rich] was again on duty for MeteoGroups, "Weather for the Week Ahead.

No loud shirts for our Ben, no Siree!! A nice crisp white shirt and tie. I now no longer look like my "Doppelganger" Ben, as 'er indoors kindly supervised a shave for Yours Truly, to rid myself of my own "salt n' pepper" facial fungus.

Anyway, enough of my Personal Care needs, and back to the Weather.

As t144 is only Six Days away now, that doesn't leave much "wiggle room", for all three of the above Models to have called the Synoptic situation incorrectly, at that timescale.

As Ben Rich reiterated, it is likely to turn, "chillier" for a while with those dual "faux" cold hazards of Frost/Fog on the Menu but unfortunately, no sign of any of the "White Gold", in the immediate future.

I would just like to pay tribute to 2 of our S.E. Regional members]. Those being, Nick Finnis and Nick Sussex.

When I do venture into the MAD Thread, I always go straight to their contributions. 

This isn't meant to sound patronising to the Two Nicks but you will always get a balanced, unbiased view of Forecast Model, runs.

There is never any "hopecasting" from the 2 Nicks, just the plain facts without trying to make a "silk purse, out of a Sow's ear!!" 

I would just like to add, that the slight Stratospheric Warming that we are currently seeing was correctly called by Nick Finnis, who warned not to be sucked in by Media chatter, of a Major SSW. 

But this is why my eyes opened wide, when I read the following from Nick F on the Mad Thread, recently.

I hope I'm not out of order in posting this Nick but it certainly, caught my eye!!

"Well hello, a reversal evident mid-month on 12z GFS  looking at the zonal mean cross section ..."

We are very lucky to be represented by the 2 Nicks from our Region, in that Maelstrom of bickering /oneupmanship, that is the Model Threade.

I would also like to pay tribute to "our" Eagle Eye. Again, this isn't meant to sound patronising but E.E. das such technical understanding of Meteorology, for one so young.  

To quote Angela [REEFSEEKER], from her post at Lunchtime on Tuesday:  

"Wouldn't it be nice, @alexisj9 and @Tom Quintavalle, if, for once, the British weather could pull victory (rampant snowiness) from the jaws of defeat (I'm thinking the polar vortex, arctic highs, dodgy MJO phases etc)... rather than the other way around!"

Yes, that would no doubt please a lot of our Region's members Angela, who are of a similar mindset.

Right enough of this future Weather speculation, I've got a Winter Horse Racing Competition to attend to, next door. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Evening all,

Sammy Snowman here and Pinch, Punch etc, on the first Day of the final Month of Meteorological Winter. 

Sammy would like to apologise for his non appearance in the last few Days but he has been in conducting in-depth talks as chief negotiator for U.S.D.A.W. [Union of Snowmen Distributed Around the World], and the estranged E.U.S. [European Union of Snowmen].

Sammy also gave his support to striking Snowmen, on their Picket Line:

     

Sammy wanted to bolster support for the Snowmen Unions for their protest and Hunger Strike:

  

They are protesting about the very restrictive practise by their Forecast Model Employers of wanting to impose Zero Hour contracts, on the Allies of Sammy, such as:

  - Scandy Mandy the Scandinavian High, and - -  Genovese Mo, the Genoa Low.

Whereas the likes of -   - Jethro Jetstream and -

  - BARBARA the BARTLETT High /EUNICE the EURO SLUG, seem ro get as many hours as they can handle, and of course are being protected by -   - Pernicious Victor [aka the Purple Blob/Polar Vortex],

Sammy does have some reasonable news regarding his attempts to muster support amongst Snowmen Unnion members, for a S.S.W. [Sammy Snowmen Warming]. As you can see from Sammy's "sporeadsheet" below, there has been a gradual increase in numbers of Snowmen, willing to sacrifice themselves on a sacrificial "meltdown" in order to hopefully deliver some Snowy/Wintry Weather, to the S.E. Region:  

As Sammy stated a few Days ago, due to the ongoing debate about whether or not this Winter Season could be classed as being all thar Cold, F.I.F.A [Fantasy Island Fanatics Association], have decided to call a Play-Off, between the Cold and Mild giving Synoptics, to settle the argument, once and for all!!.

But as our C.E.T. [Current Excitement Threshold] Guru - Roger J Smith has illustrated on his Thread the C.E.T. isn't especially exciting, at the moment!!.

Now, a few details on this F.I.F.A. Play-Off between the Cold [Sammy Snowmen Utd] and the Mild Synoptics [Purple Blob Rovers].

Rovers won the toss and have won the right, to stage the 1at Leg.

The 1st Leg will be "played" over the 24 hours of Saturday 18th February, over the -

.  - G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway], corridor.

The 2nd Leg will be played over the 24 hours of Saturday 25th February, over the home ground of Sammy Snowman's defensive enforcer -

 - Genovese Mo, the Genoa Low and the Mediterranean Basin.

Tomorrow Morning, Sammy will post up details of the Format/Rules for the Winter Season 2022/23 decider.

That's all for Tonighr.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.     

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Just got my garden ready for the visit from the beast from the east this month

Evening all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Although it could just as likely be a  -

A Pest from the West, Lassie!!

Just want to finish with a few Video clips.

I'll begin with MeteoGroups "Weather for the Week Ahead", courtesy of Ben "fidgety" Rich. Please stand still Ben, when you're on camera,  I begin to feel dizzy, watching one of your Forecasts. 

'Er indoors tells me I very much resemble Mr.Rich, especially when I start to develop some "salt n' pepper" fungus around my chops!!

But had I turned up at the Registry Office with the facial fungus, I think my Bride would've applied for the fastest "Decree Nisi", on record.

Here we both are, standing perfectly still in front of the camera, for our Photoshoot:  

Weather for the Week Ahead - BBC Weather

Mr. Rich there explaining the contradictions between the European [ECM] and the American [GFS], Model.

Now, a Youtube clip of the 10 Day Trend from the Met Office, courtesy of Aidan "interesting" McGivern.

You may want to wear some tinted glasses as with Mr. Rich above, as you may experience a little dizziness, as Mr. McGivern's shirt, is certainly interesting!!: 

But for such a detailed Forecast Mr. McGivern, we'll forgive you your rather "loud" shirt!!

Aidan, as Ben Rich above, highlighting the differences between the European and American Models.

Come in number 23, 26, 35 and 35, on ECM and those 30% of GFS runs, make it so!! 

Final Video clip, is an explanation of the El Nino and La Nina phases, of the ENSO phenomenon:

Could well be that La Nina could well be responsible for the recent severe flooding, in New Zealand. See link to report, below:

Auckland weather: Flood-hit region suffers more heavy rain - BBC News

FWIW, I still think the percentage call is for a "middle ground" solution, between those opposing European and American Models.

Perhaps with an area of High Pressure located close to the U.K. but not being allowed to move further North.

I happen to think there is too much energy in the Northern branch of the Jet Stream to allow any Northern Blocking, to our N.W./N/N.E.

Of course from a Coldies perspective, I really hope I'm wrong on this, and one of those 30% of GFS runs proves accurate. 

As has been stated many times, La Nina UK Winters tend to be "front loaded" in  terms of Cold/Wintry Weather, for the U.K. 

During the final Month of Winter, the Polar Vortex tends to reorganise, delivering mild and unsettled Weather, to our shores.

Finally, below is a link listing the Strongest 24 El Nino/La Nina events, by Season:

El Nino and La Nina Years: NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

There is certainly a lot for Sammy the Snowman to think about, when he posts an update in his Countdown to February Thread.

Ben Rich has reminded me that Tomorrow Morning I need to get rid of my "salt n' pepper" facial fungus but hopefully without fidgeting in front of the mirror, and severing a jugular vein!! 

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Just a P.S. to my post above. below are two images taken by my Daughter [Hayley], on the Morning of Monday 2nd February, 2009.

The first is of my Daughter's Car, depicting the 6+ inches that had settled on her Car, outside the Maisonette where I used to live in Anerley, in the extreme North of the L.B. of Bromley. I lived here when I first became a Member of NW as TOMSE20, in January 2005. By the time of this unusual Thames Snow Streamer event, I was living about 5 Miles to the N.E. with my Wife, in Lee, SE12.

I was amazed to see that Anerley had "outsnowed" Lee by a couple of inches, as I'd always been under the impression that being closer to the source of moisture, being the Thames Estuary, would result in a greater Snowfall but as Paul Sherman explained, the February 2009 event was no typical, Thames Snow Streamer event.  

 

My Daughter took this image on the Road Bridge overlooking Anerley Railway Station, looking North towards London, on a very very bleak and wintry, Monday Morning [2nd Feb, 2009]: 

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

8 hours ago, Reefseeker said:

Wouldn't it be nice, @alexisj9and @Tom Quintavalle, if, for once, the British weather could pull victory (rampant snowiness) from the jaws of defeat (I'm thinking the polar vortex, arctic highs, dodgy MJO phases etc)... rather than the other way around!

Still cold overnight, sun peeking through the clouds this morning.

Evening all,

Hi Angela [Reefseeker], yes that would be a very favourable end to this Winter Season, if that would be the case.

But I'm not convinced, it will happen. Just call me doubting Thomas!! 

Anyway, this Disciple of Cold/Wintry Weather, will now take a look at the 12z Model output, to compare and contrast with the 00z runs, from those same Models that I looked at this Morning. Those being the ECM, GEM, GFS and UKMO, out at t144 [Mon.6th Feb]:

        12z ECM 6th Feb. 12z [t144]                12z GEM 6th Feb. 12z [t144]

  .

       12z GFS 6th Feb. 12z [t144]                 12z UKMO 6th Feb. 12z [t144]

  

All of the above 4 Models, are "singing from a similar hymn sheet".

High Pressure close to the U.K., with a pretty strong Polar Vortex, parked close to Greenland.

The pick is the American Model, with just enough leeway to think about allowing an Easterly sourced flow, in through the back door in time.

Let's extrapolate forward to t240 [Fri.10th Feb] in Fantasy Island territory, with those Models that go out that far:

     12z ECM 10th Feb. 12z [t144]              12z GEM 10th Feb. 12z [t144]               12z GFS 10th Feb. 12z [t144]

    

All are pretty similar, with strong heights close to the U/K. but with an ominous "purple blob", patrolling the Greenland area.  

I would tentatively suggest that the American Model [GFS] is the pick of the above again, which could deliver an Easterly sourced flow to our Region, a few Days later.

As I stated this Morning, I still think the "percentage call" would be for High Pressure to become centred to close to the U.K., due to a pretty strong Polar Vortex not allowing any height rises to become established over Scandinavia, with an Easterly sourced flow affecting our Region.

But below is an extract from this Afternoon's updated long range Forecast, for around mid-February. In a typically understated Met Office way, mention a small chance of an Easterly developing, with some Snow Showers:  

UK LONG RANGE FORECAST

Sunday 5 Feb - Tuesday 14 Feb

Later, the most likely scenario is for wetter, windier and milder weather to move in from the west, however there is a small chance of easterly winds developing bringing colder weather and some snow showers.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Tue 31 Jan 2023

I must admit on balance, this doubting Thomas still thinks an Easterly courtesy of a Scandinavian High is unlikely to occur, before mid February, with a strong Polar Vortex, bossing the Greenland area.

I really hope I'm proved wrong of course, and that this Season has a "Last Supper", before the last rites are read on yet another disappointing Winter Snow wise, for our Region.

Anyway, enough Blasphemous analogies, from Yours Truly.

But I don't want to finish this post, on such a negative note. 

Let's have a trip down memory lane. We are a few hours away, from the 14th Anniversary of a tremendous Snowfall event, for some of our Region.   

     ERA  500hPa 18z 1st Feb. 2009          ERA  850hPa 18z 1st Feb. 2009                FAX 00z Mon. 2nd Feb. 2008 

      

"An unusual Thames Streamer event this with areas west of the meridian recording greater depths of snow than those further east. I know from my own local experience that Bromley, where I used to live would normally have a greater depth than Croydon, where I used to work. The reality was very different to the norm, with around 6" in Bromley but nearer 9", further SW in Croydon.

I did, of course fair much better than areas further east, notably around Southend where the event is still referred to as "The Great Polystyrene Ball Conspiracy", poor Paul Sherman is still in therapy!"

Paul Sherman, helped to put together a brilliant analysis of explaining why this streamer behaved so differently, than other such Thames events.

I managed to find Paul's in-depth analysis of that unusual Thames Snow Streamer event, when I was "sniffing about", in the NW archives.

It's well worth a read, which you will find on the link, below:

Thames Snow Streamer Event 1/2nd Feb 2009 - Winter Weather Discussion - Netweather Community Weather Forum

This event was also accompanied by four very loud cracks of thunder, in my area [Lee SE12], and I can't remember how many times I've posted up the following, two Youtube clips, related to this particular Thames Snow Streamer event?? 

I used to work around 10 minutes walk from where this Youtube clip was shot in Croydon, Surrey, on Monday 2nd February, 2009: 

Regards,

Tom Q.    

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

Yep it was a pro, and I'm not buying it till it's a lot closer my self, I'm looking at earlier, and the 5th in East Kent, so probably all of the east, is dropping slowly. So something is in the works. Obviously the actual scandi is much later. We'll see.

Totally agree with you, Alexis.

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

Although I must say from a Coldies perspective, the 00z runs look more promising, regarding height rises to our N.E.

As you state Alexis, we start to see some encouraging signs, around 5th Feb. [t120]. Below, are a selection of 00z Model runs, at that timescale:

         00z ECM 5th Feb. 00z [t120]               00z GFS 5th Feb. 00z [t120]                00z UKMO 5th Feb. 00z [t120] 

    

All 3 Models are showing encouraging signs of height rises, to the N, N.E. or E. of the U.K., despite a pretty strong looking Polar Vortex.

Moving on to 7th Feb. [t168], those height rises are starting to look, a bit more substantial:

        00z ECM 7th Feb. 00z [t168]                00z GFS 7th Feb. 00z [t168]              00z UKMO/EU 7th Feb. 00z [t168] 

     

Having a strong Polar Vortex, doesn't necessarily preclude height rises over Scandinavia, just as long as it isn't too far East.

If truth be told, the American Model [GFS], has the PV a little too far East.

Ideally we'd like to see the PV situated as far East as N.E,Canada/Baffin Island.

Having a Fantasy Island look out to 10th Feb. [t240], on two of those Models that go out that far.

The European Model [ECM], has a bit too much Eastward momentum in the PV, to allow those Scandinavian height rises to gain a bit more traction and ridge further West, and we end up with the centre of the High, to the East of the U.K. but still with a very cold S.E. drift, off the Continent. Meanwhile, the American model [GFS], has a very strong are of High Pressure situated over N.W. Russia, throwing a ridge across Scandinavia, towards the West of the U.K. This promotes a very cold E./N.E. flow, albeit dry with pressure around 1,030 > mbs, for our Region.

GFS is suggesting a little less pressure on the heights away to our N.E., with the PV shifting a little further North, to the extreme N. of Greenland.

    00z ECM 10th Feb. 00z [t240]                 00z GFS 10th Feb. 00z [t240]  

  

I've included the Canadian model [GEM], to give it's view of the possible Synoptic situation, on 10th Feb [t240].

GEM are suggesting a "halfway house" between ECM and GFS, out at t240. Strong heights away to our N.E. but with more pressure from the PV, over the Greenland area but still suggesting there will be a cold Easterly flow, off of the Continent for our Region:

      00z GEM 10th Feb. 00z [t240]  

Although the Model runs have improved overnight regarding the chances of height rises over Scandinavia, promoting an Easterly sourced flow. I still believe the form Horse is likely to be an area of High Pressure centred close to the U.K., with just a little too much pressure from the northern arm of the Jet Stream to allow for that much sought after Easterly, for the Coldies contingent in our Region.

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

On 24/01/2023 at 20:11, Snowangel-MK said:

@Tom Quintavalle your  "predictive subtitling" reminds me of why men are useless at taking messages …. 

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

Hi Sa-MK,

The dreaded phantom Subtitle hacker, has struck again!!.

Turned on BBC News just before 6.30 A.M., and caught the Sports news.

Those who follow Football, will be aware that it's the 4th Round of the F.A. Cup, at the moment.

The "Giant Killers" of the 3rd Round Stevenage, are away to Championship side, Stoke City.

As we are aware, Stevenage is a New Town in Hertfordshire but BBC's Subtitles claims it is Stevie Nicks, Town?? 

I never realised that Fleetwood Mac's gorgeous lead singer, had a connection to the Hertfordshire Town??

To make matters worse, the item then went on to describe Stevenage, as a Village?

Now I'm no demographics expert but surely with a population of 440k in 2017, that would make Stevenage very much a New Town, and definitely not a New Village. I'm sure the good people of Stevenage would be up in arms to hear their Town, described as a Village!!

Meanwhile in Weather news, it's around 5c here in Lee at the moment and expected to rise to about 9c, this Afternoon.

To those of you who have looked at the "Countdown to February with Sammy Snowman" Thread, I really hope the "frozen one" hasn't looked at the overnight Model runs because they really are a bunch of dross , with no sign of any cold/.snowy Weather, on the horizon!!

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Sammy will now comment on this Afternoon's 12z Forecast Model runs, and the likely impacts on the S.E. Regions' Weather, as we move into the final Month, of Meteorological Winter.

But first some more "dodgy" acronyms for the Employers of Sammy, and his Allies:

ECMWF - Every Coldies Morning Winter Fantasy. FAX - Forecasts Are X-rated. GEM - Give 'Em Morsels. GFS - Go Freeze Satan. ICON - It's Cold {but] Only Notionally. JMA - Jam Model [for] All. UKMO - U Know [it's] Meteorological Overkill.

Sammy will begin by taking a look at how his Employers envisage seeing the Synopti9c situation looking like oh the first Day, of the last Month, of Meteorological Winter:

    12z ECMWF 1st Feb [t120], 2023            12z GEM 1st Feb [t120], 2023               

   

         12z GFS 1st Feb [t120], 2023           12z UKMO 1st Feb [t120], 2023

    

Sammy sees there is pretty much cross-model agreement, from those models above, for how the Synoptic situation will look in five Days, as we enter February.

The annoying Azores High, slightly displaced N.E. of it's home, resulting in a WNW flow, from the Atlantic. Sammy thinks this will result in a pretty dry spell of Weather, and a bit of frost about if Skies are clear at Night but nothing overly cold looking and certainly no Snow, on the offing.

 - Pernicious Victor is beginning to look menacing, over the N.E. of Canada but if we were lucky to see height rises further East over -   Gina the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] Corridor, as long as Victor doesn't move further East, eventually this could allow,   - Greta the Greenland High and her Swedish Cousin -

  - Scandy Mandy the Scandinavian High, to appear on the scene.

But a cursory look further down the line, albeit in Fantasy Island territory, in 10 Days time -

   12z ECMWF Mon. 6th Feb [t240]           12z GFS Mon. 6th Feb [t240]
  

suggests this may all just be a cold -  - "pie in the sky" and certainly no sign yet,

of any baking going on, in the Stratosphere.

This is all leaving Sammy, feeling a bit despondent -   - Tonight.

Tomorrow in Part 2 of Countdown to February with Sammy Snowman, our genial host will look at the Winter Season 2022/23 Play-Off Match, arranged by F.I.F.A. [Fantasy Island Fanatics Association], and prospects for the two legged event.

The Play-Off has been called by F.I.F.A., as the C.E.T. [Coldies Excitement Threshold], is only a little above average and no clear "Winner" can be deci9ded upon, without this Play-Off taking place.

Sammy will introduce you all to his likely "Team" of Allies, and the opposition led by Pernicious Victor and his late outrageous transfer bid to sign and bifurcate     -  Jethtp Jetstream, having seemingly lost the services of the very fickle and money grabbing -

   - La Nina. 

The 2 Play-Off Matches will be "played" on the final 2 Saturdays, of February.

Leg 1 will be "played" over -    - Gina the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] Corridor.

With Leg 2 being "played" over the homeland of -  -  Genovese Mo, the Genoa Low.

That being the Mediterranean Basin.  

The 2 legged Play-Off, will be officiated by 2 neutral, Nicks.

Nick Sussex, has been appointed Match Referee.

Whilst, Nick Finnis will be the S.A.R. [Synoptic Assistant Recorder].

Should no clear Winner be obvious, the decision will be made by the S.A.R., based on the accumulated % Synoptic possession gained by both "sides" [Coldies/Mildies], over the site of the 2 Play-Off Arenas.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman.    

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

I now  will expand on what I have planned for this Thread as we enter the final Month, of Meteorological Winter., using more "dodgy" acronyms and A.I. [Artistic Indulgence]. 

There will be Three parts to this item.

Part 1 - An analysis of the Winter to date, plus a look forward to what February may bring, featuring characters from last Winter's S.E. Regional Pantomime.

Part 2 - A 2 legged Football style Play-Off between the Coldies and the Mildies, for "bragging rights" in this Winter Season of  2022/23. Dates T.B.C. 

Part 3 - Some Puzzles/Quizzes for you to wile away those dreadful, long, hot and sweaty Summer Nights.

PART 1

As we can see below, December began on a very positive note for the S.E. Region, with quite a few of the Regions' members having their most substantial fall of early December Snowfall, since 2010.

          00z Sun 4th Dec. 2022                           00z Mon 5th DEC. 2022

 

Sammy would like to thank -  Greta the Greenland High,

for facilitating the arrival of -   - The Dwarf from the North, who managed to stick around a bit longer, than he normally does,

Sammy would also like to pay tribute to -  - 

Gina the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] Corridor, who graciously closed her doors to -
 - Pernicious Victor [aka the Purple Blob/Polar Vortex], and his sycophantic pal -

 - Jethro Jetstream – All American Boy [aka,The Pest from the West]. 

Sammy was not that surprised by this early taste of Winter, as the Peruvian Gangster's Moll -

 - La Nina and Girlfriend of - .

tends to result, in a - , front loaded Winter.

But unfortunately and in time for Christmas, normal service was resumed and Pernicious Victor and his allies fought back and they eventually gained control of the G.I.N. [Greenland, Iceland, Norway] corridor. This resulted in a very unsettled, mild and wet spell of Weather:

         18z Christmas Day, 2022                      00z New Years Day, 2023

  

This mild and unsettled spell lasted until mid January, until a small low, at the base of a broad trough of Low Pressure ran along the English Channel, reintroducing an Arctic sourced, airmass.

          06z Mon. 16th Jan.,2023                      18z Weds. 18th Jan.,2023

   

Although temperatures dropped below average, especially at Night with some severe Frosts, our Region was now at the mercy of the -

  - dreaded "wishbone effect" , with any Snow/Wintry Showers confined to N.Scotland and exposed, windward coasts.

Very gradually and I mean very gradually the cold and frosty Weather finally relented, with our Region being the last to finally see temperatures returning close, to the late January average.

In a short while, Sammy Snowman will comment on this Afternoon's 12z Forecast Model runs, and the likely impacts on the S.E. Regions' Weather, as we move into the final Month, of Meteorological Winter.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman   

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Good Evening all,

Sammy Snowman here.

I hope myself and my Wife Samantha find yourselves and your Families, well.

I'd like to apologise for my non appearance this Morning but I'm still involved in tense negotiations between my own Union, U.S,D.A,W.,  [Union of Snowmen Distributed Around the World] and, my former colleagues in the E.U.S. [European Union of Snowmen] before that BRR - Exit.

I then took time out to visit our Striking Snowmen, who are also conducting a Hunger Strike, to protest about our Employers wanting to impose those restrictive Zero Hour contracts, on our Synoptic allies.

I've also been trying to bolster support, for a S.S.W. [Sammy Snowman Warming] but that is giving me, a lot of frozen headaches!! 

In a short while I will be back to expand on my ideas for this item, as we head towards the final Month, of Meteorological Winter.

Stay cool.

Regards,

S.S.   

[COUNTDOWN TO FEBRUARY WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN]

Good Evening all,

Sammy Snowman here, and I hope myself - 

and Wife Samantha - , find yourselves and your Families, well. 

I'd first like to thank Mr. Paul [Website Owner] and Mr. Malcolm [Our Moderator], for allowing me to open this Thread.

We would both like to apologise for not being able to conduct a Countdown to Christmas Pantomime last Month but we have had our hands full, with our 

recently arrived Twins, Sarah and Saul - 

The average gestation period for a Snow Lady is only a Month, so as quick as a flash, myself and Samantha quickly became, Snow Baby Parents. 

But the Twins are doing fine now and as you can see, we've been able to get plenty of Ice Cream and Frozen Yoghurt, into them.

It's not surprising that we have soon heard the patter of tiny, Snow Baby feet, as during that horrendous Summer, myself and Samantha had to spend many  Months, cooped up in our marital bed -

, in our Ice Palace - ,

just north of Dover, in Snowdown. 

Dad and Mun -   - Solomon and Sharon are both well, over at Snowshill in the Cotswolds, in Gloucestershire.

Sister Sally -  is also well but back in December, had as worried for a while.

No less than 19 times, Sal experienced symptoms of C.O.V.I.D [Cold Optimism Vastly Inflated Disorder].

I did want to begin this Thread about a Week ago but unfortunately suffered a severe bout of S.A.D. [Snowless Affected Dysfunction].

As you may recall, in my Day job I am Chief Negotiator for U.S.D.A.W. [Union of Snowmen Distributed Around the World] and last Winter, was involved with former colleagues in the E.U.S. [European Union of Snowmen].

Unfortunately the two Snowmen Unions were split asunder by Brr-Exit and were trying to organise a deal to facilitate, a Brr -reentry.

In the last few Weeks the two Snowmen have been in tense negotiations, trying  to thrash an arrangement for a S.S.W. [Sammy Snowman Warming].

A while ago, I managed to put together a Spreadsheet indicating the likely voting intention of Snowman members of both the E.U.S. and U.S.D.A.W., regarding the hopeful joint agreement for a S,S,W,. Unfortunately, as you can see from the Spreadsheet results below, we couldn't get a 100% agreement, for the hoped for, Sammy Snowman Warming:  

Some of my members in U.S.D.A.W. are so aggrieved by this lack of enthusiasm from E,U,S, members, that they've gone on hunger strike:

But as our S.E. Snow Political Correspondent - Nick Finnis suggests and as can be seen from the temperature graph below, this less than enthusiastic support for a Sammy Snowman Warming is currently not having the desired effect of raising the temperature sufficiently in the  Stratosphere above the North Pole, to result in a full blown, major Sammy Snowman Warming. Nick suggests we may gave to be content, with a minor Sammy Snowman Warming but warns that neither necessarily guarantee, cold and snow for the South East Region:

Tomorrow Morning, using more "dodgy" acronyms and A.I. [Artistic Indulgence[, I will expand on what I have planned for this Thread as we enter the final Month, of Meteorological Winter.

There will be Three parts to this item.

Part 1 - An analysis of the Winter to date, plus a look forward to what February may bring, featuring characters from last Winter's S.E. Regional Pantomime.

Part 2 - A 2 legged Football style Play-Off between the Coldies and the Mildies, for "bragging rights" in this Winter Season of  2022/23. Dates T.B.C. 

Part 3 - Some Puzzles/Quizzes for you to wile away those dreadful, long, hot and sweaty Summer Nights.

Stay cool.

Very best wishes.

Sammy and Samantha Snowmen.    

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, Snowangel-MK said:

@Tom Quintavalle your  "predictive subtitling" reminds me of why men are useless at taking messages …. 

Brilliant S-MK.

Did you hear the one about the retired Gynaecologist who still works in an advisory capacity? 

So, still likes to keep his hand in.

I actually heard that terrible pun on a Dame Edna Everage [Barry Humphrie's altar ego], show.

Showing my age, yet again!!

Apologies to any pregnant Ladies out there, that may be reading this.

Regards,

Tom Q.   

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

3 hours ago, Snowangel-MK said:

It reached 15 degrees in Scotland this afternoon, very topsy turvy, we seem to be holding on to the cold much longer down here, the brook has even frozen over now .. 

Evening all,

Hi Sa-MK,

As the earlier overnight cloud has thinned and broken, it actually feels colder than when myself and 'er indoors, came downstairs this Morning:

As you can see on Meteociel's current Nebulosite [Cloudiness] chart, cloud is now becoming more confined to the extreme S.E. of our Region:

That Google Translate is really handy, as my "O" Level French is now firmly on the wane. What is an "O" Level,, they all cry? Really showing my age there. Do they actually, still exist? 

Pretty unusual to see temperatures actually rising behind a Cold Front but that is what's o0n the menu as we go through Tomorrow, aa returning TM [Tropical Maritime] air, begins to replace that Arctic sourced air mass.

My Wife always has the subtitles on our TV, and I've recently seen an example of what can only be described as "predictive subtitling", go hilariously wrong.

ITV London Weather Forecaster [Sally Williams], was explaining that the Days are gradually lengthening, as we head towards the -

Quote subtitles - "Seoul cyst".  I'm sure our Sally meant Solstice.

Btw Sal, I think you probably meant the Spring Equinox but that would've probably read as "Eh Qui Knocks". Probably best to stick with the South Korean lump, Sal!! 

Another news item that caught my eye, was a report on ITN News from a Fish n' Chip shop owner in Peterborough, that due to rising costs, he now has to charge £10, for a portion of Fish n' Chips.

On that basis, you'll soon need to take out a Mortgage on a Chinese/Indian Takeaway, for a Family of four!!

Fortunately, 'er indoors has now become an expert in "sniffing out" special food deals, from Supermarkets. 

Colette is now known as the Martina Lewis, of Online Shopping!!

Don't know what's happened to the 12z ECM run this Evening. 

It must be so awful from a Coldies perspective, that it's gone into hiding!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

It was very noticeable this Morning how much milder if felt, during a Bathroom visit I took in the middle of the Night.

A look at the Meteociel temperature and dew point charts, tell the story:

 

Plus a quick look at the Meteox Satellite Radar, tells us why. 

Weather Europe, Satellite Weather Europe, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Europe - SAT24.com

A blanket of cloud has been streaming across from Continental Europe, to the S.E. of our Region.

Good Morning Britains' Weather girl Laura Tobin, mentioned that it was 12c warmer last Night, than it was on Sunday Night.

Speaking of Ms Tobin, she also mentioned that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming may be about to occur.

But as our own Nick Finnis suggested the other Day, it may well be a minor warming, rather than a major one.

I hope Nick doesn't mind but I've copied the following paragraphs and diagram from his very detailed and insightful "blog", on the likelihood of a SSW, occurring.

"Every SSW is different and around 66% of them lead to colder conditions, so not all SSW events lead to cold. For example, the SSW in February 2018 led to the ‘beast from the east’ later that month and into early March, whereas the SSW in January 2019 had no significant impact for the UK and NW Europe, due to the easterly winds in the stratosphere not propagating down into the troposphere. In fact, it stayed mild for the rest of the winter."

"Major SSWs occur when the winter polar stratospheric westerlies reverse to easterlies and they often lead to a split of the polar vortex into two separate vortices that displace away from the pole, one usually moves over Eurasia, the other over North America. In minor warmings, the polar temperature gradient reverses but the circulation does not, this can lead to displacement of the polar vortex away from the pole towards Europe, N America or Asia. The type of SSW, be it a displacement or split event, is important for the tropospheric response."

"The tropospheric weather patterns that typically occur prior to an SSW split event are a persistent low pressure weather system over the North Pacific, known at the Aleutian Low and a high pressure weather system over the North Atlantic and Eurasia and this pattern has been evident in recent weeks leading the forecast for the stratosphere to warm by the end of the month. The split is usually forced by 2 Rossby Waves, which consist of wave-1 and wave-2. Wave-1 typically being from the North Pacific towards the pole, wave-2 from North Atlantic / Eurasia. An SSW displacement is typically caused by just wave-1 forcing."

"There can be a lot of variability from one SSW event to another in terms of who may get hit with the extreme cold and snow that are often associated with these polar vortex events. The location of cold air outbreaks may depend on where the polar vortex splits or displaces, as well as what other factors, like ENSO, are influencing the weather at the time."

"A minor SSW, which is looking likely, is generally less likely to impact surface weather patterns than a major SSW. A minor SSW will likely cause a displacement of the stratospheric Polar Vortex over the next couple of weeks. The polar vortex is modelled to be displaced towards northern Europe."

As Nick goes on to state, both types of SSW warmings do not necessarily guarantee, a cold and wintry outbreak for the U.K.

Back on 14th January, CATACOL posted the following diagram, in the Polar Vortex/Stratosphere watch Thread: 

Back then, the ECM Model were expecting a SSW to start occurring in the next couple of Days, with a plunge in zonal wind speeds.

The following charts of temperatures over the North Pole were posted by MOUNTAIN SHADOW, last Wednesday [18th].

Temperatures have began to rise at the 10hPa level but are still below average. Meanwhile, that has not yet filtered down, to the 30hPa level, yet:

Finally, a couple of "wishful thinking" trips down, memory lane:.

Below, are the reanalysis 500hPa/850hPa charts, as the 2018 "Beast from the East" was about to strike:

   500hPa 00z Mon. 26th Feb. 2018      850hPa 00z Mon. 26th Feb. 2018

 

Below, are the reanalysis 500hPa/850hPa charts, at the height of the 2009 impressive "Thames Streamer" event, which struck my locale:

   500hPa 00z Mon. 2nd Feb. 2009      850hPa 00z Mon. 2nd Feb. 2009

 

Both of the above Cold and Snowy spells occurred, after a major SSW [split], and NOT a minor SSW [displacement], event.

Below, are the dates of those major SSW events, interestingly they both occurred during a La Nina ENSO phase.

We are currently in an ongoing La Nina phase but I'm not sure if it is a West based, one?

FEB 2018 -   12-Feb-18 - La Niña West based.

JAN 2009: -  24-Jan-09 - La Niña West based.

Anyway, we will soon know if we are about to experience a SSW but I think it's worth pointing out that even if one occurs, either a minor or major one, they don't necessarily guarantee Cold/Snow, for the U.K. 

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families well, on yet another cold and frosty Morning, for our Region but according to the Daily Mail, there is even worse to come. 

In Daily Mail journalists [Elizabeth Haigh and Jamie Phillips], the Mail seemed to have more OTT Weather story, journos??

I'm sure you will all remember Nathan Rao, and his outrageous claims every Winter that it was going to the most severe ever experienced.

Well I was quietly minding my own business on my Laptop studying the 00z forecast model runs , when the following popped up and obviously caught my attention: 

UK faces a February Freeze worse than the Troll from Trondheim as arctic air could drop below -10C  | Daily Mail Online

I wonder if someone has been reading my adventures of Sammy Snowman and his friends and foes, such as the -

 -Dwarf from the North,  -Scandy Mandy the Scandinavian High.  

 - Genovese Mo, the Genoa Low.

Not forgetting,  - the awful Jethro Jetstream– All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West] and the  hideous -

-   Barbara the Bartlett High /Eunice the Euro Slug. 

But I'm sure Sammy Snowman is grateful that the Trondheim Troll, has joined his "gang". 

Anyway, that's enough alliteration for so early on a Monday Morning!!

Do you think I should take a copyright patent out, on these alliterated named characters?

Regards,

Tom Q. 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

It's getting pretty desperate now.

Thinking of starting a bring back,  Rob McElwee petition!! 

Regards,

Tom Q.  

[Countdown to Christmas with Sammy Snowman - a SE Regional Special]

Evening all,

Sammy Snowman -  would like to apologise for his non appearance Tonight and not being able to give his thoughts on this Afternoon's, 12z model runs but he has been involved in some very tense negotiations between -

U.S.D.A.W. [Union of Snowmen Distributed Around the World] and the E.U.S. [European Union of Snowmen], in order to facilitate a BRR -Re-entry and hopefully a S,S.W. [Sammy Snowman Warming] but Sammy is fully aware thar je needs a 100% backing from both Snowmen Unions, as just a half hearted response is likely to result in a token minor S,S.W., whereas with both Snowmen Unions taking part a major S.E.W. could result and deliver some late Winter "White Gold", to the S.E. Region.

Sammy is in the process of organising a Hunger Strike/Meltdown -   

amongst Members of both Unions, in a protest against Zero hour contracts for the likes of :

 - GRETA the Greenland High,

- SVEN the Svarlbard High,

        - SCANDY MANDY, the Scandinavian High and

 - GENOVESE MO the Genoa Low.

Whilst their Employers: E.C.M. [Every Coldies [Night] 'Mare], G.F.S. [Go Freeze Satan] and U.K.M.O. [U Know [it's] Meteorological Overkill], have given plenty work and Overtime to the allies of - 

 - the Purple Venom– Polar Vortex [Aka Pernicious Victor/Purple Blob].

      - Barbara the Bartlett High /Eunice the Euro Slug, and

        -  Jethro Jetstream– All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West]. 

Should Sammy Snowman get the 100% he seeks from both U.S.D.A.W, and the E.U.S., on behalf of both Snowmen Unions, Sammy is likely to issue a stark warning to their Employers that their Hunger Strike/Meltdown will likely result in a visit from -

 - the BEAST from the EAST.

aided by -  - BERDY the RUSSIAN BEAR [Siberian Anticyclone];

to unleash some brutal late Winter Cold/Snow on the whole of N,W, Europe, should they continue with these grossly unfair employment [ractices.

Sammy Snowman will be back Tomorrow Morning with his thoughts on the, 00z Forecast Model runs. 

Hope you all have a lovely freezing Night, courtesy of a severe Frost. 

Frosty regards

Sammy Snowman [aka Tom Q.]   

[Countdown to Christmas with Sammy Snowman - a SE Regional Special]

Morning all, Sammy Snowman here - 

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

A very belated Happy New Year to all S.E. Regional members, Mr Malcolm and Mr. Paul.  

On behalf of myself and my Wife Samantha - 

I would like to apologise for not being able to stage a Countdown to Christmas special December just gone but myself and Samantha have had our hands full with our Twins, Sarah and Saul - 

Despite the mostly mild Weather since the start of the Year, as you can see they have both put on Snow, pretty quickly.

They arrived as a consequence of myself and Samantha, having to spend so much time in our marital Bed, in our property at Snowdown, just north of Dover -

The average gestation period for a Snow Lady is only a Month, so as quick as a flash, myself and Samantha quickly became, Snow Baby Parents. 

 The remainder of my Family -

 Solomon and Sharon [Mum and Dad], and Sister Sally - ,

are all well, thank you.

You may recall back in December 2021 we left Sammy in his role as chief negotiator for U.S,D.A.W. [Union of Snowmen Around the World], trying to thrash out a deal with the estranged, E.U.S. [European Union Snowmen], who split after some bloke called Johnson, ordered a BRR - Exit.

Also U.S.D.A.W. and the E.U.S. were protesting against the implementation of Zero hour contracts for the likes of GRETA the Greenland High -

 / and her Cousins, SVEN the Svarlbard High - 

and   SCANDY MANDY, the Scandinavian High.

Whereas their Employers, E.C.M. [Every Coldies [Night] 'Mare], G.F.S. [Go Freeze Satan] and

U.K.M.O. [U Know [it's] Meteorological Overkill], were content to give all the work to allies of -

  -  PURPLE VENOM – Polar Vortex [Aka Pernicious Victor/Purple Blob]

 -    BARBARA the BARTLETT High /EUNICE the EURO SLUG, and

           -  JETHRO JETSTREAM – All American Boy [Aka,The Pest from the West]. 

Although as some of us are aware GRETA the Greenland High, brought about a 2 Week visit from -

 - The DWARF from the NORTH.

This very biased behaviour from E.C.M., G.F.S. and U.K.M.O., has meant that -

  - GINA the G.I.N. [Greenland/Iceland/Norway] Corridor], has been overrun at times since the Year began by the left arm [northern branch], of Jethro Jetstream.

Later Today, Sammy Snowman will bring news of talks between U.S.D.A.W. and the E,U.S. regarding their hopes to bring about a [

S.S.W. ;Sammy Snowman Warming], to facilitate the arrival of -

 - the BEAST from the EAST.

Sammy will also introduce to S.E. Members more dodgy acronyms and A.I. [Artistic Indulgence], and analyse the 12z Forecast Model runs.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman [aka Tom Q.].  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Morning all,

Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well. 

Yet another superb post above from EAGLE EYE and a very insightful explanation of what is likely to occur in the Stratosphere during the next Week or so by our own NICK F., earlier this Morning.

I will now like to resurrect my December 2021, COUNTDOWN TO CHRISTMAS WITH SAMMY SNOWMAN Special and a hopefully a humorous look at the current Synoptics, with cartoon characters from that S.E. Regional Pantomime.

Regards,

Sammy Snowman [aka Tom Q.]    

[Is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming occurring and will it bring the Beast from the East?]

11 hours ago, Nick F said:

J

View the full blog here

Morning Nick,

Much thanks for the above very detailed explanation of what is likely to occur in the Stratosphere, in the coming Week or so,

Plus that salient warning regarding being "sucked in" by media stories, regarding another "Beast from the East".

As you suggest a minor SSW with a displacement of the Polar Vortex, doesn't normally "cut the mustard" as much as a major SSW full on split of the Polar Vortex, similar to what happened in late Jan. 2009 and Feb. 2018.

They certainly went on to deliver plenty of Snow, here in S.E. London.  

Regards,

Tom Q.