Disco_Stu
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Posts posted by Disco_Stu
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3 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Only just seen the 06Z and im surprised at some of the comments, or lack of.
Yes I know its +384 but at least the GH is back making an appearance.
+384 that's sometime next winter and a totally different thread
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58 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
What?..
Sticking 2 my guns as i have been..in regards to the most noted part of winter likely late feb/early march..
Ive also supplied ample data/reasons/exactions/opinions to the steak..on numerous occasions!..
And will contintue all those notions.
Its a shame some are not seeing what myself..is seeing because the mood would likely be more free-flowing...rather than 'wrist slashing'..
Im buisey today in my other life!!!!
But i will stick up..as per an analysis/aligned with data an opinion hopefully sometime later...
I think the issue is not that you have been sticking to yours guns, but keep telling people to expect proper winter weather in 10 to 14 days. Then keep changing the dates, just like today.
I really don't mind people sticking to their guns, it is the hunt for cold thread after all. However, nobody here has forecast this winter in any confidence and so it is pointless telling people to expect wintry weather any time soon.
No more ramping please.
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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
Also with a scandi high, you sometimes have nowhere else to go when either the back end sags out on the Eastern flank into Europe and no cold uppers have been delivered or when the Jet just fires up over the top and sinks it (2012), it didn't matter what the background signals were then, the met office forecast collapsed from very good to very poor in 48 hours, don't get me wrong, Easterlies are the holy grail of UK setups, like watching those stunning high maintenance super model types, very beautiful but very fragile, probably not actually that healthy, so worth the gamble but only when the uppers are -10 or below, preferable -13c or below late feb and also low 500mb heights required, not those dry types, in this instance the further West initially any Northern blocking sets up, the better, apart from a West based -NAO, that almost always is the death knell for a potential cold spell.
Does your full stop button work?
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Think it's time to open a new 'final' cold hunt thread! Over 400 pages of the same old stuff. Maybe a new thread may bring better luck!
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Don't panic! The potential in the background signals will save us!
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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Easy answer 2 your question.
Study-experience-decipher!
As i said previously 2 another member on the last snow event......
That came to fruition.
And perhaps even more notable than deciphered.
Im not here 2 score points and get back patted...just to wack my analysis/points/exactions noted!!!
Actually I hope you are correct on the next cold spell and like most in here, i certainly think your method of input to the thread is both unusual and entertaining. It is because if your regular entertaining input that i have noticed that quite often your predictions of cold spells are incorrect, (just like the models have been all winter).
So, my previous question was quite genuine when I asked how you are sure of the next cold spell?
Anyway, keep up the entertaining posts!
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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:
Again some clever wording from the met.
If you look a little deeper at there transcript...its open for a flip to cold @anytime in the nxt 7 day..onwards...clearly they are of a little confused themselves as atm we all are.
Imo a cold late feb is still highly favoured.
Lets watch-it all unfold!
Although you have been 'over optimistic' with quite a lot of your 'upcoming cold spell' predictions all winter. So what makes you so confident that your interpretations of the next cold spell is correct?
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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
GFS ensembles maintain their markedly zonal or mild picture well out into February. I guess it underlines the fact that once a positive NAO really kicks into gear it takes a while to subside.
For February 10th the swingometers paint a mild/average picture with westerly winds, really nothing to write home about. The best of the lot in the close range is the parallel, a poor effort.
As we get to mid month, the ensembles are arguably even milder and have been consistent for quite a few runs now as the 15th of February swingometer shows. A bleak set of ensembles with P16 or the parallel being the best I can find... and they aren't even that cold.
I'd argue that this has to be the worst ensemble set of the winter so far. Some of the runs with mild uppers have an anticyclone over us. Whereas this may have led to surface cold in December we will be getting to the point where days under an anticyclone can start feeling pleasent / mild. If it's cold and snow you are after then little comfort can be found from the 06z ensembles.
The global temperature anomalies in a weeks time show that cold air from Canada is still finding a way to push into the North Atlantic and the global temperature anomaly pushing up once again. A classic positive NAO pattern with warmth over Europe and Eastern US and cold over Northern Canada. The January global temperature anomalies (right) are out from the NCEP and they show a January amongst the top 10 warmest by the looks of things. I wouldn't be surprised if January was the month which had a CET value closest to average, given December and the current February model output.
If only we cut down on CO2 emissions and global temperatures dropped... perhaps we would have larger cold pools to tap into more often and give us the cold we chase?
Perhaps we could start to reduce the emissions by banning forums that just talk about the weather. Thus reducing energy demand!
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9 hours ago, Rambo said:
Thankfully thats all conjecture, so dont need to worry until nearer the time (if indeed there is a need to worry)
Well that makes every forecast 'conjecture'. However, looking at all the models and I would expect that temps will be in double figures by mid Feb.
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Temperatures back into double digits by the middle of the month. The route to cold looks a long way off.
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23 minutes ago, HighPressure said:
Lurking around here over the winter as I do waiting to hit the jackpot, I find myself very disappointed in yet another winters offering. From what I can see now its going to take a major shift in models to bring anything significant before we start looking for some warmth in March.
The models have been doing major shifts all winter, but they can't 'bring' weather if it's not meant to be.
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10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:
Perhaps the SSW has already 'been'. Deep cold with the very marked trough over Europe from early in January. Intense cold in parts of US and Canada.
SSW's do not guarantee deep long lasting cold for this tiny island.
No at all sure of the statistics but I would suggest no more than 1 in 3 have the effect most on here wish for.
A very realistic view. Despite the over optimistic views of some people.
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25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
I agree with most of this, but take issue with the bit in bold, last year was brilliant in that we didn't have a spring, straight from winter to summer, that's how I like it! I love both the extreme seasons and don't get enthused by either spring or autumn to be honest. I think we may be looking at an extension of winter into March given the long range models such as CFS and GloSea5. Fits with the SSW impacts too.
Are these the same SSW impacts that we've all been waiting on since xmas/new year?
I can't help but think that we have seen the last of the snowy weather for this winter.
It simply wasn't 'our turn' this time.
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At least we are certain of one prediction and it involves prams and toys
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With the way the models have been promising arctic conditions all winter only to flip flop......I think I'll remain calm for now.....for the sake of my remaining sanity
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I'm getting ready to duck once the toys start to be thrown from the prams again!
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I'm optimistic, I still think that there will be another SSW with down well and loads of potential and background signals that will deliver a beast and snowmaggedon. All in the reliable timeframe of 11 months!!!! You heard it here first.
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Those 'background signals'
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6 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
Siding away from 12z runs at the moment..
This caught my eye.. Interesting!
Oh go on then........why?
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Yes once again some nice looking charts, but are these just cherry picked charts from one run again? My money is on lots of sleet/cold rain coming next week.
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10 minutes ago, jam said:
(Deleted by Blessed Weather)
Everybody can voice their opinion, even if it's one that you don't want to hear.
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Well I'm convinced, what could possibly go wrong! I'm off to tell everybody that I know!!!
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28 minutes ago, chris55 said:
Oh no....ECM 216 shows MILD how will we cope.
Don't panic!!!! The background signals will save us!!!!
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6 minutes ago, CSC said:
They also said that today will be a 'dry day for most' and ended up with a lot of the country seeing some snow showers...
I wouldn't trust BBC walking my dog up the hill never mind the weather.
Since they switched from METO to Meteogroup they have been nothing but a pile of tosh
Not everybody saw those snowmaggedon type of snow showers today that delivered huge amounts of snow, up to a whopping 3 or 4 cms!!!
The beeb have been fairly consistent and have not shown the wild swings in the forecasts that the cherry picked charts have been shown here this winter. Its worth keeping an eye on them to keep people's expectations grounded.
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Cold hunt - models and chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Despite all the doom and gloom, the ramping and the moaning, at least this winter has provided not only a valuable lesson but also more data to aid future winter forecasts.