[How will Solar Minimum affect weather and climate Take 2?]

On 24/09/2018 at 09:55, jvenge said:

From what I know, as we approach the solar minimum of a solar cycle, interactions with the stratosphere can influence the polar arm of the jet stream. (from memory I think it is something to do with ozone).  This seems to happen irrespective of ENSO conditions. There have been a few papers on the subject over the years. A quick google finds this from Nature https://www.nature.com/news/2010/100414/full/news.2010.184.html

Influencing the polar arm of the jet will undoubtedly influence the temperature of Europe. It is pretty much how every cold spell comes to Western Europe. You can constantly observe this. That happens to Europe irrespective of what the co2 concentrations are. EUROPE, I said.

But we almost go onto another topic now. Because a solar minimum within a solar cycle is one thing. This is widely accepted. It is not yet clear if this year will be the minimum or if it will be next year.

The issue is then people tend to try and predict how future solar cycles will be and it gets quite murky. The last solar cycle (or the one we are in) is a long way from a Maunder Minimum type scenario. In a Maunder Minimum type scenario you would have every winter (just about) giving you what a current solar minimum does in the 11 year cycle. There isn't anything assured that SC25 will be lower than SC24 and even if it was, that it would be low enough to influence each European winter. Observational evidence of the current cycle (recent history shows it to be quite low) would point that it isn't low enough to radically change winters outside of the usual minimums. Put simply, a weak SC24 (by recent historical standards) wasn't weak enough.

You will find different scientists predicting different things for the next solar cycle. Quite honestly, I'd say its pure speculation to say another Maunder Minimum is imminent. So, even if you got a SC25 weaker than current SC24, it isn't clear if it would be sufficiently weak enough. Added to that, many scientists will take a punt on it being a little stronger than SC24.

In general, in the last thread especially, the thread became overwhelmed by people talking about different subjects (past, current and future) that it became a mess.

According to the experts there is another dimension to the Grand Solar Minimum.  This is to do with the solar wind decreasing as the sun goes quiet.  This leaves the earth more susceptible to bombardment from cosmic rays.  Also UV drops.  Apparently these issues affects not only cloud formation but also the frequency of volcanic eruptions.  If this is true, then there is a positive feedback effect all helping to cool the planet.  Interestingly we are seeing a few eruptions at the moment.  

[Grand Solar Minimum]

The current solar cycle (cycle 24) is about to reach it's minimum point.  Nothing special about that because according to the consistent cycle it has followed for as long as the sun has been monitored it will do so every 11 years.  What is significant however is that according to the research of the Valentina Zharkova and her team, we are also on the cusp of a Grand Solar Minimum, which has a cycle of roughly 350-400 years according to her mathematical models.  Her models accurately coincide with the last time the sun went though a Grand Minimum and this was an event that we know of called The Maunder Minimum.  This was an period of below average temperatures in Northern Europe, more commonly known as the little ice age.  Below is a link to her work.  Some of the work is very mathematical which is not surprising as Zharkova is an applied mathematician at Northumbria University.
 

Here is one of the most important graphs in my opinion.

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep15689