Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

SkyDreamer

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    46

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by SkyDreamer

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Harry said:

    I did not put words in your mouth, this is what you said...

    “Uh it's 21:30... Most storms on Tuesday night did not explode into life until after 11pm.

    Calling something a bust without any real evidence for it, is... well kinda off. To put it nicely.”

    You were criticising others (possibly myself as I at this time was citing pessimism) and comparing tonight to Tuesday after 11pm.p All models I’d seen (and most others no doubt) indicated storms developing broadly between 16z and 21z then moving north(ish). Tuesday night however suggested storm development right into the night - hence my comment that people’s despondency was probably based on the models/charts (as were mine).

    The storms that were around before sundown besides the MCS over the SE; were mostly surface based driven storms/ systems. Although models and charts can be a good tool, they are not 100% reliable which is my point. So when people declare something to be a dud, before an event is even over is silly to me. That was my original point from my statement not criticising people for their use of models/ data/ charts etc.

    I'm not sitting here claiming I'm an expert, although people shouldn't put some much faith in forecasts and predicitions only to let themselves down when a storm or whatever other weather phenomna doesn't appear. I don't see what's wrong/ difficult in saying that.

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Scott Page said:

    Can you believe it? Yet ANOTHER bust for this area of Cheshire. 8th time in a row where we have had massive storms forecasted and we haven't even had a drop of rain. Absolute bull. I will no longer be looking at the forecast anymore as you change plans for nothing. They categorically said this morning that there would be dangerous amounts of rainfall and lightning this afternoon or evening. But as I said for the 8th time nothing has happened. Rubbish. 

    That's a forecast, a forecast isn't a guarantee.

    Storms like Snow can be very hard to predict, so they use a wider-general area for forecasts, as it's possible that storms could have developed/ affected your neck of the woods.

    You never know, there's still plenty of energy in the atmosphere for more storms to develop. Especially Elevated storms.

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Harry said:

    Comparing tonight with Tuesday is (forgive me for being so blunt) ridiculous. It is a totally different synoptic setup so to say that storms kicked off after 11pm Tuesday therefore it should happen tonight is bizarre.

    Models suggested storms erupting after 11pm and they indeed. I’m struggling to find one which suggests the same tonight (apart from the latest MetO projection which isn’t the most reliable).

    Despite the above, I’m sat here in high heat and humidity praying that something will kick off...but I’m certainly not basing it on the fact Tuesday night did.

    For your information, I was not stating that the set-up tonight is the same as Tuesday Night's, so don't put words in my mouth.

    I was essentially saying, since you missed the point. Despite the fact models and data may show a certain set-up, like I mentioned on Tuesday evening, doesn't actually mean anything.

    Storms are fickle, the set-up may show certain areas being more prone, however, like we saw with Tuesday evening's storms. They iniated further East than the models predicted. That's my point, there is always uncertainity regardless of what the set-up is/ projections for storm development.

     

    • Like 1

    Storms and Convective Discussion - 25th June 2019 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

    Sorry, this won’t be happening. 

    I called a bust at 20:43

    Uh it's 21:30... Most storms on Tuesday night did not explode into life until after 11pm.

    Calling something a bust without any real evidence for it, is... well kinda off. To put it nicely.

    People were calling Tuesday Night a bust, early, then it roared into being lighting up the whole of the South of England.

    So hold your horses. For a bit.

    • Like 2
×
×
  • Create New...