OzzyUK
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Posts posted by OzzyUK
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3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:
Maybe but most of us a lay people. I couldn't begin to understand the complexities involved. Look at a few weeks back when we were due that big event from the South West. Good snowfall touted. What happened? It slid way in to Northern France hardly dropping a flake. Its been a crap year, don't blame people for being disappointed. Great if it happens but people are tired of it going tits up at the last moment, and it can so often go tits up. Instead of mocking people maybe practice little understanding and reassure them eh?
Why would anyone need reassurance or understanding from a stranger on an internet forum??
Perspective needed here, its not a life or death situation - its grown adults throwing their toys out of the pram because it hasn't snowed.
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:
Absolutely classic. People writing off an event right at the start No patience! You only have to look at the radar to see it won’t be a non-event
It's what you would expect from a nursery school playground.
Funny to read but gets frustrating after a while.
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When do the Met Office normally update their weather warnings?
Unless they know something that no-one here has picked up on, there must be substantial back-tracking from previous predictions on the cards.
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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:
I think the thing is the radar is only as good as your ability to make sense of what it is showing and to spot the trends within it.
I've got a sneaky feeling that what may have happened is the low between 850-500mbs was a little further NW than expected by the models. This meant that the colder air didn't filter down as quickly since the whole airmass was just that bit further north. The radar suggests this as well when you look at the circulation that was seen between 3-5am just offshore of Belgium, which was about 50 miles further NW than the GFS expected even on its 00z run.
Again, thanks for the explanation.
Every day is a school day!!
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6 minutes ago, Wynter said:
I will carry on this argument because I never said the MO was right. I said I was "following the MOs updates" which were showing this as a bust until during Monday day time.
If I had just watched the radar without following the MO I would have been staring at the radar all night wondering why nothing was happening! What a waste of time that would have been.
So again, no, watching the radar was the incorrect advice.
Hopefully you/MO are correct and we will see something from this in due course.
Crack on and persevere in whichever prediction makes you happiest, there are no set rules.
The radar is the most useful tool in short-term snow forecasts, but up to you if you wish not to use it.
Cheers.
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4 minutes ago, Wynter said:
And again, why are you changing what was said? Was ridiculed last night for following the MOs updates and watching the MO app update for the worst. I was told just watch the radar....
Didn't need to do that obviously, because the MO was right. So no, we're not in agreement at all.
Just to be clear, you are saying that the Met Office was right, but at the same time this is the same Met Office that put out amber and yellow warnings for areas that might now see substantially less snow than predicted?
Watching the radar was the correct advice.
Not going to argue with someone over the internet, never have and don't plan to start now.
Hope you get some snow in the coming days, even if this is a busted flush there are still some opportunities.
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6 minutes ago, Wynter said:
No no no, you don't get to change what was said. I will quite happily go and pull out some quotes if you want. But, I was told not 5 hours ago that "everything was still on track", "just watch the radar as it still shows the snow heading our way".
And there was a lot of sarky comments about impatience and a lot of high 5ing each other about how awesome they were at this weather thing.
Well what do you know, it turns out that the "useless" MO app knew more about the weather than they did!
Glad you are in agreement, the radar did show at that time that the snow was heading across the north sea and it was all on track.
It went wrong after but nothing has been hurt other than your expectations.
Dry your eyes and calm down, last minute changes are nothing new and no-one has died.
Lets see what happens over the next hours/days.
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2 minutes ago, Wynter said:
Wow. Looks like is was right to be jaffa cakesed off last night when the MO change their forecast.
But no, those who were on here last night said I was being impatient, and to only trust the radar.
Well how's that f'ing going for you?
Chill out, the weather will do what it pleases and no-one can change it.
Despite your annoyance, the folks who said to trust the radar were absolutely bang on correct - if it shows nothing then that's what you will get.
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:
The band that is part of Darcy is near it's western extent, what is in Kent/Suffolk IS the modelled band of snow. You can tell it's near it's western limit by watching the southern half starting to curve SSE a d then eventually back east. This means the band is likely to pivot to look more N-S and then will basically sit in place and slowly weaken until it is replaced by weak convection (it wont look much different, just a little more patchy in coverage).
If you have snow/rain now you should be fine. If your still west of it,then your going to need the convection to help band that's total pot luck, especially further west you go.
Thanks for taking the time to explain, its appreciated and have a better understanding of what you were saying.
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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:
This is about as west as it gets, there is a little room for pivoting a touch more but that's almost it in terms of westerly motion.
After it breaks down there will be showers forming which may stand a better chance but I would y bank on it.
Apologies, but don't understand your statement - surely the main snow hasn't reached the Anglia/Kent coasts yet so if it doesn't get any further west then it will miss the UK entirely?
Or are you looking at modelling for the next 12/24 hours and mean that there is little chance of divergence further west from what they are currently showing?
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1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:
Referring back to my earlier transition from snow to rain, we are at stage one. Rain with icy blobs, that can be witnessed on a car windscreen.
Do you mean rain to snow?
How many stages are there in your scale - assume the last is total whiteout
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2 minutes ago, john mac1 said:
Don’t get me wrong, if we get in line with a streamer 10cm is easily possible. The next few hours should be interesting.
Understood, am ignoring any apps and just looking at the radar now.
What will be will be, but keeping my fingers crossed at the same time!!
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5 minutes ago, john mac1 said:
Tbh, I don’t know. Once the streamers set up we could get lucky or we could completely miss out. You could have lots of continuous snow over us yet a few miles up the road there could be nothing.
very much a nowcast!Seen that a few times before!!
Cheers for the response, am thinking along the same lines. Hoping for 3-4cm over the next 24 hours which I think could be possible and anything else will be a bonus. If we miss out this time there could be chances next week.
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3 minutes ago, john mac1 said:
Wind picking up here now!
I'm not far from you (Epping) and readily admit to being a dunce compared to some on here when it comes to interpretation of models.
You think we will see much in this area? Think other comments have noted that any incoming precipitation from the east will come inland for a while, then go SW which would make our location borderline for a hit/miss.
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1 minute ago, kate1 said:
Can I ask: why is it that posts about the Covid vaccine are removed yet posts comparing the attributes of TV presenters are allowed? - yes, I guess you could claim a weather connection, but surely there's a more appropriate thread somewhere on this website.....
There is a dedicated Covid discussion area - they are being moved to there.
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1 minute ago, Neilsouth said:
Anyone know what time its due to turn to snow roughly?
Think midnight Sat - 3am Sunday for me on the border of NE London and W Essex, temperatures predicted to drop 6 degrees in as many hours.
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23 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:
SHHHH We arent allowed to say that name anymore, he got banned
Didn't realise that, must have missed something juicy in my frequent absences from the forum.
He, along with Kold Weather and a couple of others (think one was a mod with a weather related username - Icono...??) were my go-to posters for their analysis on the various models and had a decent amount of knowledge and experience to back up their thoughts.
Glad Yamkin is still here too, not seen as much ramping as I seem to remember from back then though!!
Hope everyone in the region gets something from the next few days, cheers
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13 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:
SHHHH We arent allowed to say that name anymore, he got banned
Didn't realise that, must have missed something juicy in my frequent absences from the forum.
He, along with Kold Weather and a couple of others (think one was a mod with a weather related username - Icono...??) were my go-to posters for their analysis on the various models and had a decent amount of knowledge and experience to back up their thoughts.
Glad Yamkin is still here too, not seen as much ramping as I seem to remember from back then though!!
Hope everyone in the region gets something from the next few days, cheers
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Been a member for many years but generally only visit when there is snow on the horizon to read predictions and thoughts on potential, especially from the folks who (unlike me!!), can interpret the various models.
One name from the past I remember posting frequently was Steve Murr but not seen anything from him unless he has changed his username. Is he still around?
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1 minute ago, Weather Wonder said:
That would be the infamous Murray snow scale.That's the one, forgot it went up to 13!!
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Read the forum for years but hardly post - sorry.
Who was the guy who used to have the 1-10 snow scale, had some amusing descriptions at each level?
Personally, I'm hoping for 3 inches in Epping, if I get more then I'll be a very happy chap.
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Snow stopped completely for the first time today in Epping, Essex (although its mostly been grainy since 10am).
Wonder if that's it or just a lull before another wave comes in?
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Blimey, did they measure how much snow was on that car? I thought my dads was bad when I was having to dig him out this morning!
Must be about 8 inches on this 1.
No, he isn't very pleased about the amount of snow to be honest, doesn't much like the white stuff - just said he had about a foot of snow which looks in the right ballpark from his photo.
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I know, I thought we had a lot here in Epping (about 6-7 inches) but I was stunned when he sent me that this morning!!
South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards
in Regional
Posted
Had all melted from the top of my car but tiny flakes starting to settle on it again.