Handry Outlook
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A lot of thunderstorms have developed across the enhanced risk today.
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A convective outlook has been UPGRADED
Valid: Now- Sun 05:59
Scattered showers will intensify and turn thundery across parts of West Midlands, Wales and SW England during the late afternoon. Frequent lightning strikes are possible locally.
Scattered showers will develop in the early afternoon across southern England, West Midlands and Scotland, perhaps turning organised and thundery across the enhanced risk during the late afternoon and evening. CAPE will reach 700-1200J/kg during the afternoon, perhaps allowing some well-scattered thunderstorms to develop. These thunderstorms might bring some localised flooding, especially over the convergence zone in Wales and parts of West Midlands. Hail showers are also possible within the heaviest showers as well. Funnel clouds are also possible in places.
Convective Outlook UPDATED: Enhanced risk 18/05/2024 06:00 - 19/05/2024 05:59
HANDRYOUTLOOK.WIXSITE.COM
Scattered showers will develop in the early afternoon across southern England, West Midlands and Scotland, perhaps turning organised and thundery across the enhanced risk during the late afternoon and evening...-
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Convective outlook FINAL UPDATE
Valid: Today 06:00 - Tmr 05:59
Homegrown thunderstorms will develop rapidly across southwest England, Wales and Ireland during the early afternoon, moving northward and affecting western parts of the UK.
Update (12/05/2024 05:25): Latest high-resolution models indicate the presence of increased deep-level shear, prompting the expansion of two high-risk areas as well as the moderate-risk zone. The risk of MCS has incresased across West Midlands and Northern England due to the latest upgrade of deep level shear.
Update (11/05/2024 22:00): Latest high-resolution models indicate the presence of increased deep-level shear, prompting the addition of two high-risk areas and expansion of the moderate-risk zone.
A low-pressure system across the Northern Atlantic will move northeastward into Iceland over the weekend. This will introduce southerly winds into France and the British Isles. These southerly winds will converge with the outflow of the high pressure across Scandinavia, producing multiple troughs over the weekend.
One of the disrupting upper trough will move northward into southwest England during early Sunday, potentially bringing some non-convective showery rain locally. MUCAPE of 1700-2500 J/kg will not be utilised during the early morning due to a shallow capping which requires 22-23°C to break, creating a loaded gun scenario.
As temperatures are expected to reach 22-23°C during the late morning/early afternoon, heavy and thundery showers will break out along the Bristol Channel surrounding area, moving northward during the first parts of the afternoon, then northeastward during the later afternoon/early evening. Frequent or very frequent lightning is possible due to the low saturated profile and a sufficient amount of CAPE. One or two supercells could develop in places. Latest models are suggesting cells which is exposed in slightly stronger deep-level shear could develop into a supercell, which potentially create large hail and frequent lightning, this is most likely to develop across Bristol/Newport and N Wales.
Moderate low-level shear across parts of southwest England and south/mid Wales can enhance updraft rotation, which increases the lifespan and intensity of the thunderstorms. This can also allow temperature and moisture gradients to increase, further boosting updrafts and allowing sustained hail growth. Latest CAM models are also suggesting an upgrade in terms of deep-level shear comparing to previous runs. Therefore hail of 1.5-3 cm in diameter is possible during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, weak low-level shearing could result in outflow-dominant pulse storms that collapse and create substantial cold pools; daughter cells then form nearby, and this whole process distorts the shape and location of the convergence zone (CZ), which may shift and wriggle north/east at times through the afternoon and evening, dictating where new cells develop. The greatest concern is flash flooding from slow-moving torrential downpours, which could occur in several places; indeed, some areas could locally receive accumulations exceeding 50mm.
Thunderstorms are forecasted to form in regions with elevated PWAT levels (>30 mm) and topographic lift. This combination may intensify instability as moist air ascends over Welsh mountains as well as Exmoor, cooling and condensing, releasing latent heat and further destabilizing the atmosphere. Topographic lift can additionally generate localized zones of increased upward motion and convergence, particularly on south-facing slopes, serving as potential thunderstorm initiation points. These areas might witness more vigorous and sustained thunderstorm activity compared to their surroundings. With the coupling of high PWAT, localized flooding is probable, and isolated tornadoes could occur due to topographically induced environments. Two distinct high-risk zones have been designated to pinpoint areas with a heightened likelihood of frequent lightning, primarily due to topographic lift. Strong gusts (up to 55 mph) and isolated tornadoes are possible should any supercells develop.
During the early evening, strong thunderstorms across N Wales might merge into a MCS when they move into Northwest England, remaining CAPE and stronger deep level shear across northern England should be able to support frequent lightning thunderstorms within the potential MCS as the profile is not too saturated. Heavy and torrential downpours are expected across NW England, bringing a risk of flooding,
Isolated thunderstorms could also develop across parts of Scotland, Ireland, and Northern Ireland, bringing localised flooding in places. Some frequent lightning is possible across Ireland and Northern Ireland but the likelihood is too low to issue an enhanced risk.
Convective Outlook Updated 3: High risk 12/05/2024 06:00 - 13/05/2024 05:59
HANDRYOUTLOOK.WIXSITE.COM
Update (12/05/2024 05:25): Latest high-resolution models indicate the presence of increased deep-level shear, prompting the expansion of two high-risk areas as well as the moderate-risk zone. The risk of MCS...-
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Convective outlook has been upgraded to HIGH RISK
Valid: Tmr 06:00 - Mon 05:59
Update (11/05/2024 22:00): Latest high-resolution models indicate the presence of increased deep-level shear, prompting the addition of two high-risk areas and expansion of the moderate-risk zone.
A low-pressure system across the Northern Atlantic will move northeastward into Iceland over the weekend. This will introduce southerly winds into France and the British Isles. These southerly winds will converge with the outflow of the high pressure across Scandinavia, producing multiple troughs over the weekend.
One of the disrupting upper trough will move northward into southwest England during early Sunday, potentially bringing some non-convective showery rain locally. MUCAPE of 1700-2500 J/kg will not be utilised during the early morning due to a shallow capping which requires 22-23°C to break, creating a loaded gun scenario.
As temperatures are expected to reach 22-23°C during the late morning/early afternoon, heavy and thundery showers will break out along the Bristol Channel surrounding area, moving northward during the first parts of the afternoon, then northeastward during the later afternoon/early evening. Frequent or very frequent lightning is possible due to the low saturated profile and a sufficient amount of CAPE. One or two supercells could develop in places. Latest models are suggesting cells which is exposed in slightly stronger deep-level shear could develop into a supercell, which potentially create large hail and frequent lightning, this is most likely to develop across North Devon and N Wales.
Moderate low-level shear across parts of southwest England and south/mid Wales can enhance updraft rotation, which increases the lifespan and intensity of the thunderstorms. This can also allow temperature and moisture gradients to increase, further boosting updrafts and allowing sustained hail growth. Latest CAM models are also suggesting an upgrade in terms of deep-level shear comparing to previous runs. Therefore hail of 1.5-3 cm in diameter is possible during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, weak low-level shearing could result in outflow-dominant pulse storms that collapse and create substantial cold pools; daughter cells then form nearby, and this whole process distorts the shape and location of the convergence zone (CZ), which may shift and wriggle north/east at times through the afternoon and evening, dictating where new cells develop. The greatest concern is flash flooding from slow-moving torrential downpours, which could occur in several places; indeed, some areas could locally receive accumulations exceeding 50mm.
Thunderstorms are forecasted to form in regions with elevated PWAT levels (>30 mm) and topographic lift. This combination may intensify instability as moist air ascends over Welsh mountains as well as Exmoor, cooling and condensing, releasing latent heat and further destabilizing the atmosphere. Topographic lift can additionally generate localized zones of increased upward motion and convergence, particularly on south-facing slopes, serving as potential thunderstorm initiation points. These areas might witness more vigorous and sustained thunderstorm activity compared to their surroundings. With the coupling of high PWAT, localized flooding is probable, and isolated tornadoes could occur due to topographically induced environments. Two distinct high-risk zones have been designated to pinpoint areas with a heightened likelihood of frequent lightning, primarily due to topographic lift. Strong gusts (up to 55 mph) and isolated tornadoes are possible should any supercells develop.
During the early evening, strong thunderstorms across N Wales might merge into a MCS when they move into Northwest England, remaining CAPE and stronger deep level shear across northern England should be able to support frequent lightning thunderstorms within the potential MCS as the profile is not too saturated. Heavy and torrential downpours are expected across NW England, bringing a risk of flooding,
Isolated thunderstorms could also develop across parts of Scotland, Ireland, and Northern Ireland, bringing localised flooding in places. Some frequent lightning is possible across Ireland and Northern Ireland but the likelihood is too low to issue an enhanced risk.
Convective Outlook Updated 2: High risk 12/05/2024 06:00 - 13/05/2024 05:59
HANDRYOUTLOOK.WIXSITE.COM
Update (11/05/2024 22:00): Latest high-resolution models indicate the presence of increased deep-level shear, prompting the addition of two high-risk areas and expansion of the moderate-risk zone.A...-
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There is a high chance of severe thunderstorms outbreak across parts of Wales.
A supercell or two could develop within this area due to moderate LLS and DLS.
Some flooding, frequent lightning and large hail are possible.
Thunderstorms are also likely elsewhere but less likely to be severe.
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Convective outlook has been updated
Valid: Tmr 06:00 - Mon 05:59
Homegrown thunderstorms will develop rapidly across southwest England, Wales and Ireland during the early afternoon, moving northward and affecting western parts of the UK.
A low-pressure system across the Northern Atlantic will move eastward into Iceland over the weekend. This will introduce southerly winds into France and the British Isles. These southerly winds will converge with the outflow of the high pressure across Scandinavia, producing multiple troughs over the weekend.
One of the disrupting upper trough will move northward into southwest England during early Sunday, potentially bringing some non-convective showery rain locally. MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will not be utilised during the early morning due to a shallow capping which requires 22-23°C to break, creating a loaded gun scenario.
As temperatures are expected to reach 22-23°C during the late morning/early afternoon, heavy and thundery showers will break out across Devon and Somerset (potentially Cotswold area aswell), moving northward during the first parts of the afternoon, then northeastward during the later afternoon/early evening. Frequent or very frequent lightning is possible due to the low saturated profile and a sufficient amount of CAPE. One or two supercells could develop in places. Latest models are suggesting cells which is exposed in slightly stronger deep-level shear could develop into a supercell, which potentially create large hail and frequent lightning, this is most likely to develop across North Devon/ NW Wales.
Moderate low-level shear across parts of southwest England and south/mid Wales can enhance updraft rotation, which increases the lifespan and intensity of the thunderstorms. This can also allow temperature and moisture gradients to increase, further boosting updrafts and allowing sustained hail growth. However, slightly weaker deep-level shear may limit the potential for significant hail growth, reducing the size of hailstones. Nonetheless, hail of 1.5-3 cm is possible during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, weak low-level shearing could result in outflow-dominant pulse storms that collapse and create substantial cold pools; daughter cells then form nearby, and this whole process distorts the shape and location of the convergence zone (CZ), which may shift and wriggle north/east at times through the afternoon and evening, dictating where new cells develop. The greatest concern is flash flooding from slow-moving torrential downpours, which could occur in several places; indeed, some areas could locally receive accumulations exceeding 50mm.
These thunderstorms are expected to develop in an area with high PWAT (>30 mm) and topographic lift. This could enhance instability as moist air is forced to rise over mountainous areas in Wales, then cools and condenses, releasing latent heat and further destabilizing the atmosphere. Topographic lift can also create localized areas of enhanced upward motion and convergence, especially on south-facing slopes. These areas could become focal points for thunderstorm initiation and may experience more intense and persistent thunderstorm activity compared to surrounding areas. Coupling with high PWAT, localized flooding is likely. Isolated tornadoes are also possible due to topographically lifted environments. A moderate risk has been issued to highlight the area with the high chance of very frequent lightning due to topographic lift.
During the early evening, thunderstorms might merge into a longer spell of heavy rain when they move into Northwest England, but the remaining CAPE and stronger deep level shear across northern England should be able to support embedded thunderstorms within the heavy rain as the profile is not too saturated. Frequent lightning is possible locally, especially across parts of northwestern England.
Isolated thunderstorms could also develop across parts of Scotland, Ireland, and Northern Ireland, bringing localised flooding in places. Some frequent lightning is possible across west of Dublin but the likelihood is too low to issue an enhanced risk.
Convective Outlook Updated: Moderate risk 12/05/2024 06:00 - 13/05/2024 05:59
HANDRYOUTLOOK.WIXSITE.COM
A low-pressure system across the Northern Atlantic will move eastward into Iceland over the weekend. This will introduce southerly winds into France and the British Isles...-
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Hi everyone, this is my first post here...
A convective outlook has been issued
Day 2 forecast
Valid: Sunday 06:00 - Monday 05:59
A low-pressure system across the Northern Atlantic will move eastward into Iceland over the weekend. This will introduce southerly winds into France and the British Isles. These southerly winds will converge with the outflow of the high pressure across Scandinavia, producing multiple troughs over the weekend.
One of the disrupting, negatively-tilted upper troughs will move northward into southwest England during early Sunday, potentially bringing some non-convective showery rain locally. CAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg will not be utilised during the early morning due to a shallow capping which requires 22-23°C to break, creating a loaded gun scenario.
As temperatures are expected to reach 22-23°C during the late morning/early afternoon, heavy and thundery showers will break out across Devon, Wiltshire, and Somerset, moving northward during the first parts of the afternoon, then northeastward during the later afternoon/early evening. Frequent or very frequent lightning is possible due to the low saturated profile and sufficient amounts of CAPE. One or two supercells could develop in places.
Moderate low-level shear across parts of southwest England and south/mid Wales can enhance updraft rotation, which increases the lifespan and intensity of the thunderstorms. This can also allow temperature and moisture gradients to increase, further boosting updrafts and allowing sustained hail growth. However, weak deep-level shear may limit the potential for significant hail growth, reducing the size of hailstones. Nonetheless, hail of 1-2 cm is possible during the afternoon.
Elsewhere, weak low-level shearing could result in outflow-dominant pulse storms that collapse and create substantial cold pools; daughter cells then form nearby, and this whole process distorts the shape and location of the convergence zone (CZ), which may shift and wriggle north/east at times through the afternoon and evening, dictating where new cells develop. The greatest concern is flash flooding from slow-moving torrential downpours, which could occur in several places; indeed, some areas could locally receive accumulations exceeding 50mm.
These thunderstorms are expected to develop in an area with high PWAT (27-32 mm) and topographic lift. This could enhance instability as moist air is forced to rise over mountainous areas in Wales, then cools and condenses, releasing latent heat and further destabilizing the atmosphere. Topographic lift can also create localized areas of enhanced upward motion and convergence, especially on south-facing slopes. These areas could become focal points for thunderstorm initiation and may experience more intense and persistent thunderstorm activity compared to surrounding areas. Coupling with high PWAT, localized flooding is likely. Isolated tornadoes are also possible due to topographically lifted environments.
During the early evening, thunderstorms might merge into a longer spell of heavy rain when they move into northern England, but the remaining CAPE should be able to support embedded thunderstorms within the heavy rain as the profile is not too saturated.
Isolated thunderstorms could also develop across parts of Scotland, Ireland, and Northern Ireland, but they are generally expected to be weak and non-severe.
An update is likely during Saturday night/ Sunday morning to readjust the slight risk and the enhanced risk. A moderate risk might also be issued only if the shearing has improved.
Convective Outlook Issued: Enhanced risk 12/05/2024 06:00 - 13/05/2024 05:59
HANDRYOUTLOOK.WIXSITE.COM
A low-pressure system across the Northern Atlantic will move eastward into Iceland over the weekend. This will introduce southerly winds into France and the British Isles. These southerly winds will converge with the...-
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
A convective outlook has been issued
Valid: Tmr 06:00 - Tue 05:59
Scattered showers will develop in the early afternoon across southern parts of Ireland and Scotland, turning thundery. CAPE will reaches 700-1200J/kg during the afternoon, perhaps allowing some well scattered thunderstorms to develop in places. These thunderstorms might bring some localised flooding especailly over the convergence zones. High PWAT (30mm) can also boost the risk of flooding. Hail showers are also possible within the heaviest showers as well. Funnel clouds are also possible in places.