clv101
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Posts posted by clv101
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Thanks coldfingers. That's right, the Thames Barrier has been activated due to a possible surge once the low pressure heads into the North Sea. Best be safe than sorry is my motto.
Where do you see live information on the barrage? It was due to be closed on Tuesday for the equinoctial tide but Monday's tide is almost as high. Coupled with the low pressure, right direction winds and large rainfall in the Thames catchment over the weekend this could be a problem no?
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Flooding is about more than just rain - Sunday morning for example looks like there could certainly be potential issues with abnormally high tides thanks to an E or NE wind in the S North Sea of 20-30 knots on the back of a 7m+ tide means the potential for tidal locking on the east coast around high tide - something to look for, especially north of the Thames Estuary and south of The Wash.
I've just written a blog post about the combination of spring high tide and the low pressure system: High Tide Alert
It's the first time I've blogged about the weather, go easy me!
I'm interested in how accurate surface pressure forecasts tend to be three days out. What's the margin of error on pressure and location on Monday and Tuesday, as forecast on Friday?
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so because we get a cold winter everyone dies off? That's how they seem to interpret it.
If we can't survive a cold winter then how did we ever survive the winters of 1991 and 1987? The most recent years with a very cold month.
Simple, we could get a winter like 1917, 1947, 1955, 1963 and even worse and we would be ok. Their making a big deal out of nothing.
As usual.
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No, things are very different now regarding energy.
See these three articles:
Aug 27th UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming
Oct 9th UK Energy Part 1: The Winter Outlook
Oct 9th UK Energy Part 2: 2005 Quarter 2 Update
To talk of the winters of '91 and '87 isn't helpful, we are far more vulnerable now than we were then. Much less gas, oil and coal and less spare capacity in energy systems. Last winter was 6th warmest in 77 years yet due to gas shortages there was a 4-fold increase in interruptions.
An 'average' winter would have a pretty bad effect this year, vast industrial disruption. A 1 in 10 or even 1 in 20 cold winter would be disastrous.
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Haven't heard much about the storm surge for a while... it was just announced by the homeland security guy that the pumps in New Orleans have now failed. Also a reporter in the Superdome is reporting roof failing and rain entering the building.
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Lol...look at this 5-day forecast for New Orleans....
I love that symbol for Monday, never seen it before.... :lol:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/5day.shtml?world=0274
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A few minutes ago they were still forcasting 12mph winds for today!
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Is that a real message issued? Can't find it on the net.
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It's here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pi...ersion=0&max=51
and here:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/la/allwarnings.html
both .gov sites so I guess it's real?
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One last look at New Orleans before it gets wiped off the map.
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what a beast katrina is. hard to believe this was a mere tropical storm only 3 days ago. i went to new orleans on a work trip a few years ago, and stayed in bourbon street. its such a lovely place, i cant imagine what it'll be like if katrina hits
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With the levies protecting the city only designed to 15 feet, but they have settled and are more like 12 feet now. Well below the storm surge. It'll be wet.
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Apparently pressure drop has just been measured as 915mbar... is that low?
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24/7 local TV hurricane coverage:
http://www.wwltv.com/perl/common/video/wmP...&props=livenoad
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Katrina Cuts Oil Output by a Third
U.S. energy companies said U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude oil output was cut by more than one-third on Saturday as Hurricane Katrina appeared poised to charge through central production areas toward New Orleans.
The Gulf of Mexico is home to roughly a quarter of U.S. domestic oil and gas output, with a capacity to produce about 1.5 million barrels per day of crude and 12.3 billion cubic feet per day of gas.
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This could be very serious.
--More--Katrina Grows To Cat. 3 Storm, Targets Gulf States..."There is nothing out there to slow it down," Local 6 meteorologist Michele Cimino said. "There are no waters to churn it up, no lands to slow it down, so what is going to happen is it will continue to build as it makes that turn."...Local 6 meteorologists Michele Cimino and Tom Sorrells said the storm could grow even stronger than a Category 4 storm if it remains in the Gulf. "Now we are talking about a very dangerous Category 4 storm," Sorrells said. "It could become the nastiest thing in the Gulf of Mexico since Camille in the 60s. This is a bad storm."
Here's the latest map:
Updates available here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_a...5105.shtml?5day
So why is this so serious? Well, take a look at this map of oil rigs off the Louisiana coast:
http://www.rodnreel.com/gps/semisub.asp
And this map of Louisiana's refineries:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/state/la.html
The oil price could go through the roof when the market opens on Monday.
Greenland - What Do We Know, What Is The Long Term Future And Is There Any Evidence Of A Melt Out?
in Climate Change
Posted
I'll also add that elevation feedback is likely to become more important as we reach the ice sheet's tipping point. The ice sheet is only there today because it has its head in the clouds, it's a relic of the last ice age. Elevation feedback represents a hysteresis loop, with any significant lowering we can expect increased surface melt.