Okay, well after looking through all the GEFS Ensembles, the good news is that its pretty much 100% that most of us, if not all of us will see a period of heavy snow. However, only about 7 out of the 20 keep the precipitation as snow throughout while the other vary in what time the snow turns to a sleety mix. The ensembles also suggest the further east you are, the more likey the precip will stay as snow throughout, so places like essex are probably best placed in this region, also most of Kent if the front is as progressive as forcast.
I'm hoping that the models are underestimating the coldness of the air, and therefore its denisty. Such cold, dense air will make it difficult for the front to be so progressive, and in an ideal situation the front could stall over us in the SouthEast. Also the front is reaching us at nightime, inreasing the chance the precip will stay as snow throughout.
The south east are probably the best positioned for snow in the county, so it won't take much of a shift from the front for the whole region to see a signifcant snow event tomorrow.
Remember that the 12z is the most progressive of all gfs runs so is probably overcooking any mild air mixing in
London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 5
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Remember that the 12z is the most progressive of all gfs runs so is probably overcooking any mild air mixing in